Time to go?
Mark Cuban is a smart guy. I know this because I hear him tell everyone that. I find it difficult to challenge since he knew when to get out of the dot com boom and became a billionaire. I had no idea when to dump my newspaper stock and now am writing for basketball web sites. Good ones, mind you. But I am working. Cuban is dancing, with stars and just in general, it seems.
Last week, he was at Wrigley Field in Chicago sitting with maverick Tribune Co. owner Sam Zell, sparking once again all kinds of talk in Chicago about Cuban purchasing the legendary baseball Chicago Cubs.
The conventional wisdom has been that baseball owners, having watched the NBA basically fine Cuban more than Rasheed Wallace, won’t vet Cuban and allow him anywhere near their sport.
Now, with Zell the hellion looking to maximize profits on selling the team and stadium, you can be sure no matter what baseball says, Zell will feel entitled to the biggest bid. He’s the kind of entrepreneur to fight for it and in the American way warn baseball that its antitrust exemption doesn’t allow it to ignore the top bidder, no matter how bad his TV dancing may be.
The conventional wisdom (by the way, who are those people?) also has been Cuban doesn’t have the money, estimated at perhaps a billion dollars, to get into baseball in Chicago. Not in a sport without a salary cap. Not while also running the Mavericks.
See where I’m going here?
Is it time for Mark Cuban to cash in again? I can see – thus far my speculation – Cuban trying to sell the Mavericks to step up into baseball and one of the elite franchises in American sports history. One that is stocked with talent poised for a great run, where Cuban can even enhance his sports reputation. It’s Cuban’s kind of bold, headline-making move.
Chicago or Dallas? C’mon. Get real. Cuban is from Pennsylvania and went to college in Indiana. He’s a lifelong baseball fan. It’s a better environment for wardrobe of Cuban’s t-shirts.
Few know better than Cuban when to sell high and buy low, and now would be the perfect time to dump the Mavs and trade up to the Cubs.
Look, the Mavs are done. Did you see how happy Avery Johnson was to be fired?
No, they’re not an expansion team or a perennial loser, but their run is over.
Though Cuban and I have differed on his real impact given the team was on the brink of breaking through when he bought it, Cuban did some great things in Dallas. He helped get a beautiful new arena built. He involved the fans and scared the heck out of the local media. He should run for governor with that record.
But the Mavs maxed out and have been in decline since blowing that Game 3 fourth quarter lead in the 2006 Finals.
They’re out of the playoffs in the first round for the second consecutive season and looking for a new coach, said to likely be Rick Carlisle. They took a calculated gamble in trading for Jason Kidd, and it didn’t work. Look, they knew the window was closing and they took a shot. I can respect that, even if it didn’t work.
It’s over for this Mavs’ group.
Five of their top six players, including Jerry Stackhouse as sixth man, will be at least 30 for next season. Three are at least 34. They’re one of the league’s oldest and now slowest teams. They gave up too much youth and future in draft picks for Kidd.
The West is changing. The Hornets are young and athletic. The Trail Blazers could emerge if Greg Oden is healthy. The Lakers look like they have a run in them if Andrew Bynum can return to health next season. The Mavs as now constituted look like a team that’s going to struggle just to make the playoffs and be an easy out for the next several years. They’ve won at least 50 games for the last eight seasons. That’s a longer run than most get. It’s over.
And knowing Cuban you figure he knows. Give the man this: He reads markets well.
You don’t get to be much of a media star with a declining sports asset.
What a great time to sell, especially with the Cubs beckoning, a team with no championship for 100 years, a team that’s loaded with talent, just as the Mavs were when he Cuban bought them. It’s the chance to be a hero in one of the world’s great cities and media markets. Imagine how famous Cuban could then make himself, which, after all, seems to be what he is most about.
There was opposition among NBA owners to Cuban at the time he purhcaed the Mavs. Many had heard of his antics and iconoclastic personality. But commissioner David Stern couldn’t resist. It’s generally understood around the NBA there is regret they accepted Cuban given the way he has bashed and questioned the league so often. But Cuban offered to pay way more than the Mavs were valued at. Ownership equity increases like players’ salaries. It was just too tempting.
Once someone is paid something, that becomes the basis for that talent, the NBA definition of market value. Samuel Dalembert gets $64 million. Now Tyson Chandler wants $65 million because his stats are better. So Cuban pays some $280 million for a franchise valued at perhaps half that and Stern sees equity increasing for everyone with a new market set.
So what if Cuban makes an astronomical offer for the Cubs, one of those offers you can’t turn down?
Zell is certainly a character and non conformist. He owes no allegiance to baseball owners. Friends say though he is a minority partner in the Chicago White Sox, he doesn’t even like baseball. He has a massive debt to finance in purchasing Tribune Co. You can believe he’ll take the highest offer for the Cubs and Wrigley Field matter who makes it. You also figure he’d love to make baseball explain why it wouldn’t accept the best offer if it is Cuban. How does Congress sanction that with baseball’s antitrust exemption?
No one wants to get into that fight.
Though for a billionaire, Zell needs money now to service that huge debt. He’s not likely to want payment dragged out in a legal fight with baseball over its right to select the new Cubs’ owner. Of course, Zell also seems fond of telling people where to go just to show how rich he is and they aren’t. He’s is unpredictable. After all, who buys a huge media company in this environment?
As for Mark Cuban, you’ve got to figure the NBA, especially in Dallas, is a sell now. And MLB might well be the buy. Mark Cuban didn’t get rich sitting on declining assets.
gugoldogs Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 8:08 am
great article !
i didn’t know the situation but it definitly makes sense…
gugoldogs Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 8:08 am
first !
gugoldogs Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 8:09 am
and second, by the way !!!
Porky Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 8:40 am
I nearly fell asleep reading this article. Boring and predictable. Try again.
Trueblood Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 8:52 am
Good article. I wonder if this was what Cuban was thinking all along. The Kidd deal barely makes sense and it really doesn’t make sense when you consider that it has no long term value. Harris is gonna just get better and better while Kidd is on the verge of retirement so it makes you think that Cuban was trying to win it all right now and then get out. After all, the value of the team would go even higher if they win a ring.
It makes sense although I wonder who would buy the Mavs. Despite their decline on the court, the Mavs are still a great product in a great arena. Cuban should try to get at least $450 million for them so I’d be curious as to who would jump at that number. If I’m a possible buyer, I hope to wait a year until Kidd’s deal is off the books.
Economist Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 9:34 am
Your article is flawed, sports franchises don’t go up and down in value based on team record. Oh no, it never worked liked that, they go up and down based on the market and the fan base. If a teams value went up and down like you said, then the Toronto Maple Leafs in hockey should be struggling, and the Los Angeles Dodgers should also be a “Sell” now like you put it. The markets don’t work like that. The Mavericks are always going to be a hot commodity, and just because they’re window is closing doesn’t mean the value of the franchise has diminished. Oh no..you are very mistaken. As long as the Mavericks are making sustainable profits then the value of the team is going to be fine. You make it sound like the Mavs are a bubble ready to pop. Very untrue. Thank You.
Scott Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 9:51 am
The value in purchasing one of the most popular sports franchises ever far outweighs the legal or financial implications.
DJG Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 10:13 am
Meh. Article reads like sour grapes. LOOOONNNNGG list of owners that should give up before Cuban (eg. Donald Sterling). By and large, Cuban has been good for the league. It’s been another disappointing year, but the Mavs have a great record and pieces to keep them moving forward.
DJG Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 10:19 am
…actually, this article REALLY stinks. Not even editorial or a strong opinion. About as exciting and insightful as reading the warning tags on a new matress.
The Dave Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 11:08 am
Well, it all makes sense I suppose. Why would the NBA want/need someone that is passionate about the sport and would rather not host an all-star game than price his fans out. Yeah, makes a lot of sense to get rid of Cuban. How about an article on the sonics being stolen from seattle, would make more sense.
Sam Smith, what is your agenda, obviously its not for a better league.
Economist Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 11:36 am
So judging by the New York Knicks and their record and “window,” the owners should sell them too right?
Heck just sell every team that doesn’t have a good record or a closed window.
Back when the Sacramento Kings powerhouse days ended a few years back, the Maloofs should have sold them too right? Sam Smith….quit your day job and become a financial advisor.
Melvin Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 12:20 pm
maybe… but i’ll assure you it will never ever happen…
goldy Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
It’s articles like this which is why Sam Smith is no longer working for Newspapers and not his poor vision to sell stock. He doesn’t understand the business of sports. As long as Mav’s jerseys, tickets are being sold and games are being watched, Cuban’s investment will rise for years.
zuludelta Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 1:09 pm
Cuban would be foolish to sell the Mavericks based on economic concerns. The Mavs are a profitable enterprise for now, and at least for the next few years, luxury tax notwithstanding, because of the NBA’s revenue-sharing scheme and their excellent job at marketing their product.
NBA-branded basketball also has the potential to become a successful international sports commodity like Premier League soccer/fútbol, whereas the MLB is strictly a domestic affair: outside of the US and the Toronto area, the only other significant market for the MLB is Japan (and even then it’s a distant second to Japan’s own pro baseball league), whereas the NBA is thriving in Europe, Australia, parts of Asia (particularly China, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines), the affluent portions of the Middle East and Africa (Israel, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Algeria), and South America. Don’t believe me? Trace the IP addresses of the people who host illegal broadcasts of NBA games on peer-to-peer TV services and you’ll be surprised at how many of those broadcasts originate internationally.
It’s also very telling that NBA games are frequently featured on P2PTV servers alongside international soccer and cricket games, but you’d be hard-pressed to find any MLB or NFL games being hosted.
Using the author’s internet business analogy, Cuban selling the Mavs now would be the equivalent of him selling his stock in his internet business before the web actually took off.
Hoffman Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 1:47 pm
While I agree that Cuban can’t afford to run both franchises at the same time (due to financial implications and time-constraints) I don’t think it would be wise to sell the Mavericks.
They’re down and out now but they still have a relatively young star in Dirk Nowitzki.
Michael Bennett Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 4:28 pm
As a Chicago raised sports fan, I’ve read Sam Smith for my entire life. As the main man who covered the greatest sports hero ever, I give a lot of credit to Mr. Smith for doing wonderful work.
But, I disagree with a lot written here. Cuban WOULD be good for baseball, and the Cubs, and their chances of winning the World Series. But, Smith makes it sound like the NBA and the Mavericks are a money losing business. That couldn’t be further from the truth.
David Stern is adamant about globalizing the NBA, and, so far, he’s doing a master job at it. Teams with international talent only thrive in his system of thinking. And, Dallas is a mid-major market. It’s not Sacramento (on it’s way out) or even a struggling franchise like the Clippers (won’t change any time soon).
The Mavericks ARE a success, and they WILL BE a success for years to come - on the court and financially. Bringing in someone like Rick Carlisle is a great move - this could be one of the deciding factors on elevating this team into the Conference Finals or Finals again. Maybe Avery Johnson was the problem, and that’s why he was axed first. He only coached the Mavs, meaning we don’t know how he’d do with other talent. I don’t think he’s a coach who can step into a losing club and turn them around. He’s, actually, an underachiever for the talent that’s in Dallas.
Although owning the Cubs would be a smart move on Cuban’s part, I don’t think he’s quite done with the Mavericks.
mookie Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 5:48 pm
This is a great article, no matter if the economic valutations Mr. Smith did are wrong. If this article is boring, i’d like to know who are the many greater sport writer around the web…
This article is smart, ironic and interesting since the first row.
Jeff from Wayne Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 6:27 pm
Sam
Glad to see you are still drawing a paycheck. Something seems wrong though - a whole article without one proposed three-way trade involving the expiring contracts of Juwan Howard or Yaukhoba Diawara? And no shots at Stephen Jackson either! You’ve changed Sam, you’ve really changed.
kyle Said,
May 6, 2008 @ 10:39 pm
the mavs situation is not all that bad, sam. Kidd is no Paul, granted, but he is one of the top 5 or 6 point guards in the league. what it really seems they need is a coach that doesnt try to make a bunch of defensive lackies (sp?) the best defensive team in the league. with kidd, dirk (who could play the 5 if necessary), howard, and terry, they simply need to open up the floor. i could see a phoenix like system working where brandon bass is the low post and dirk roams the perimeter picking his spots while kidd delivers his league leading assist numbers.
i dont see a problem there. pick and roll teams to death. its worked for less talented teams. and while kidd (untradeable) and dirk (dont want to trade him) may not be on the move, players like howard and terry can fetch the type of young role players that a team like that would require.
one thing is for certain, though. these mavericks are not contenders as their roster and system stands.
as for the cuban bashing, which u are a little hilary clinton about (u dont seem to state a position on whether or not u actually dislike the guy for being the way he is), i cant dislike a guy for wanting his top dollar team to succeed.
dan ryan Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 10:10 am
I still miss you in the Trib, so can you e-mail a list of your current internet sites. I appreciate your insight into the NBA and would like to continue following your columns.
Zane Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 5:40 pm
The Mavs are far from over, they have a very good roster. I believe Cuban made the right move in sacking Avery Johnson, but I think he should have gone after Mike D’Antoni, and employed a Pheonix type offensive game, because they have the roster to match.
Johnson has preached them a solid defensive game and I don’t think with a change of coach, they will forget how to defend.
Kidd is far from done, he may have been overmatched by Paul but frankly, who hasn’t? Paul is the best PG in the league, but Kidd is still in the top 5 or 6.
Get a quick, defensive minded point guard to backup Kidd and get Diop type player back from free agency, play up-tempo offence, and you’re back in contention.
Forget baseball, its about as exciting as watching re-runs of Little House on the Praire.
Michael Kukich Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 6:41 pm
The great thing about this article is that you can substitute Sarver for Cuban and Phoenix Suns for the Dallas Mavericks and it still makes sense!
Sarver paid a record $401 million for the Suns, quite a bit more than the $285 that Cuban paid. D’Antoni’s “7seconds or less” team is history and so is D’Antoni.
The Suns starters must be the oldest in the league next year with Shaq (37) Hill (36) Nash (35), & Bell (33).
The Suns in the last four years have traded Joe Johnson, or sold #7 pick Loul Deng or Andre Igoudala, #21 Rajon Rondo, #24 Rudy Fernanadez, #27 Sergio Rodriquez, #56 Morcin Gortat. Drafted poorly in taking Alando Tucker # 29. Signed Marcus Banks to a terrible $24 million dollar contract while claiming to have sold the above picks to avoid the luxury tax. Signed one-hit wonder Boris Diaw to a horrible $9 million per year over five year contract then found out he couldn’t co-exist with Amare on the floor. Traded away Marion’s cheaper two years, while he threatened to walk away from one of them for Shaq’s remaining $40 million.
Dallas looks like they are in good shape compared to the Suns!
Michael Kukich Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 6:49 pm
Oh yeah, I almost forgot the two 1st rd. picks, this years and 2010 they gave to Seattle for taking Kurt Thomas off their hands only to see Seattle obtain another 1st rd, pick from the Spurs to send him there and help eliminate the Suns in the first round! Priceless!
Melvin Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 9:25 pm
http://basketballnonsense.blogspot.com/2008/05/rick-carlisle-new-coach-of-mavs.html
Re: Economist Said,
May 7, 2008 @ 11:06 pm
Economist, you completely contradicted yourself in your second post.
Based on the Knicks record and window they should be sold now? Well their record was terrible, so it would not be selling high on them, it would be selling low.
You were correct in that a team’s value goes up and down based on market and fan base. But the fan base DOES go up and down based on record (trust me, I’m a long time celtics fan and they are not just an anomaly). Record does affect fan base which affects market value. The Mavericks sell out frequently now with a large fan base due to great success over the past several seasons. But since their window of success is suddenly very small, their success should diminish and subsequently so will their fan base and market value. Now is a great time to sell them to someone who thinks there is hope and direction (therefore money to be made) with this franchise.
nbaroundtable Said,
May 8, 2008 @ 7:47 am
The Mavericks’ run is over. They can’t beat any of the top teams in the West. They’re in an extremely difficult situation.
Did anyone see Cuban’s post explaining the Kidd deal?
http://www.blogmaverick.com/2008/05/02/talking-mavs/
Worst case scenario is that they cash him in in a Gasol like deal. Personally, I think that’s the best case scenario.
Their cap situation is awful. Dirk, Terry, Howard and Dampier combine for $50mil a season for the next three years. Terry and Dampier have hardly any trade value. Howard has some but he’s not netting an all-star capable of being a top scorer alongside of Dirk, Josh simply isn’t good enough. Meanwhile Dirk is the best player, trade him and the team likely falls apart and you know you’re not going to get a good deal anyway. So no cap flexibility, no trading flexibility.
Like Sam Smith said “Five of their top six players, including Jerry Stackhouse as sixth man, will be at least 30 for next season. Three are at least 34.”. These players don’t have long enough left in their careers to wait about for reinforcements. Plus nearly all have them have peaked. Damp and Terry have peaked. Kidd and Stackhouse are on the decline. Dirk is in his prime. Howard might develop some. Not a lot of optimism there either.
Carlisle is an excellent coach but he’s an odd choice. I thought they wanted someone who’d open up the offense? In Detroit and Indiana he was the most controlling coach in the league. I thought they wanted a new voice, a new direction? Looks the same to me. Great coach though.
Mavs are in huge trouble
benoit69 Said,
May 8, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
the mavs chemistry stinks, they are talented but they dont match up well against anyone
Trade:
josh howard, jason terry and fillers
get guys like shawn marion and vince carter
jason kidd is still a real good point guard but is very ineffective with the current lineup
they are in desperate need of a real good defender because against the stars they get torched every time (get marion or artest to stop that)
help for jason kidd on the fast break who can throw it down (carter marion)
it would cost the mavs cash wise but the team would be a serious contender
Porky Said,
May 12, 2008 @ 9:02 am
I believe Cuban should acquire MORE teams. He should acquire an East Conference team for sure- then he doubles his chances of having a winner. Imagine both his teams in the Finals? Oh wow, that would pretty nifty. He might get congestive heart failure routing for/against the very 2 teams on the floor! Imagine that. Imagine.
Clark Kent: “I think Wayne can beat Brannigan”.
Alicia Said,
June 30, 2008 @ 10:25 am
My best team of MLB is The Chicago Cubs . This why I always fallow their games especially whenever I have some time. I’m always trying not o miss any of their game and hear about the team’s news. But The Chicago Cubs tickets get more pricy especially when there are some hot games. But, if we’re really good fans we should try not to be mean when we’re talking about a favourite teams. It’s not only the Cubs tickets that got pricy, but there are other major teams too, so the team needs our support and we should provide as much as we can.