HoopsHype.com NBA Blogs - Marc Narducci

He came on so strong at the end of last season and looked right at home in the postseason that a natural question in his second year is whether Derrick Rose will be able to move up to the select group of point guards in the NBA.

Actually the question isn’t whether he will, but when will the ascent actually occur?

Whether Rose will make an appreciable leap in his second season running the Chicago Bulls offense remains to be seen, but few doubt that he will eventually be listed among the NBA’s best point guards.

Coming off an outstanding showing in his first postseason, Rose provided enough evidence that he is going to be a serious impact player. This should be no revelation since Rose was the first player taken in the 2008 draft.

First, before glancing into the future, it’s impossible not to look behind. In losing a seven-game opening round series to the Boston Celtics, Rose was truly an impact player. While players don’t always match their regular season statistics in the postseason, Rose  exceeded his output.

As a rookie, he averaged 16.8 points, 6.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds and 2.5 turnovers. Against the Celtics in a truly pulsating first-round, Rose averaged 19.7 points, 6.4 assists, 6.3 rebounds. Of course it must be noted that he averaged over seven minutes a game more in the postseason.

Two negatives were that he averaged 5.0 turnovers in that Boston series and he missed all four of his three point attempts.

Both statistics are related because Rose is not yet a threat as a three-point shooter. He shot 22.2 percent in the regular season. Since he derives so much of his offense by driving to the basket, he is more apt to turn the ball over while attempting to create his own scoring opportunities.

The other part of Rose’s game that must improve is his defense. True, when somebody is creating so much on offense, there is a tendency to rest on D. Yet to move up to the elite level, he has to make a better effort when the opponent has the ball.

One other question about Rose will be his health. He just turned 21, played in 81 games during his Rookie of the Year campaign and averaged 44.7 minutes in the playoff series with Boston. However, Rose suffered an ankle injury during this preseason and still hasn’t looked 100 percent, although in an opening 92-85 win over the San Antonio Spurs, Rose had 13 points (5 for 12 shooting), seven rebounds, seven assists and just one turnover in 33 minutes.

While there can always be debate, it says here that Chris Paul of New Orleans and Utah’s Deron Williams are currently the top two point guards in the NBA. (It’s hard to believe that Williams hasn’t earned an All-Star invitation, something that should be remedied this year).

The thing that has to be noticed about both is that they have improved each year in the league. Both are now in their fifth NBA season.

Last year Paul was a first-team All-NBA Defensive Team selection while Williams received three second-team votes.

Like Rose, Paul was a poor three-point shooter as a rookie. He shot .282 from beyond the arc as a rookie and last year was up to .364. Williams on the other hand had his best three-point shooting season as a rookie (.410) and worst last year (.310) and that remains an inconsistent part of his game.

Still, both Williams and Paul are much better shooters and defenders than Rose and each has more savvy as a floor leader. That is to be expected with their experience.

In looking at Paul and Williams, it’s interesting how players develop.

Williams made his great improvement, at least from a statistical standpoint between his first and second year, going from 10.8 points and 4.5 assists per game to 16.2 and 9.3 his second season. Of course his minutes increased more than eight per game, but his improved play earned Williams the extra minutes.

Paul made his biggest gain between his second and third season. He went from averaging 17.3 points and 8.9 assists his second year to 21.1 points and 11.6 assists his third season.

What made that leap so impressive is that his playing time went up less than one minute per game.

It goes to show that players develop at different rates. Don’t be surprised if Rose shows his greatest improvement between his second and third seasons.

Before taking aim at Paul or Williams, there are several other point guards that will provide plenty of competition for Rose, including greybeards such as Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups and Jason Kidd. There are also veterans with All-Star experience (Devin Harris, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, Baron Davis) and others looking to crack the top group (Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon, Russell Westbrook).

Rose has the ability to move above all these point guards before taking direct aim at Paul and Williams. Asking for it to happen in his second season may be too much to expect.

Share:

With approximately 30 games played the early frontrunner for the MVP award clearly is Cleveland’s LeBron James. This is no shocking statement.

It doesn’t mean that the award should be suddenly shipped to Cleveland, because there is too much time left, but James has zoomed into the favorite’s role for a number of reasons.

In James’ case, the numbers don’t lie. He is playing like an MVP for a team that began the week having won 26 of its first 30 games. James was averaging 27.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.4 steals, 2.0 steals and 1.13 blocked shots while shooting 50.9 percent from the field.

With James, the numbers don’t begin to tell the entire story of his dominance. He has shown the ability to make his teammates better while accumulating those eye-popping statistics.

James of course can’t afford to relax because of the competition he will face in maintaining his frontrunner status.

Oddly, Kobe Bryant isn’t getting anywhere near the mention that he did last season when he won his first-ever MVP award.

James actually may benefit from not having won it in the past. For some reason that seems to be a big deal to voters, but it shouldn’t factor in the equation.

And what might have helped Bryant last year, is possibly hurting him this season. Make no mistake about it, last year wasn’t a lifetime achievement award for Bryant. He clearly deserved the award. This year he should also earn serious consideration.

Bryant was averaging more than 26 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for a Lakers team that won 25 of its first 30 games.

The difference this year is that Bryant is playing with a better supporting cast for the entire season. His scoring is down two points a game from his average last year, but Bryant doesn’t need to provide as much offense, especially with Pau Gasol on board the entire season.

Any team that has Lamar Odom coming off the bench, has the type of depth that James certainly doesn’t enjoy in Cleveland.

Usually teams that are battling for the best record in the conference boost most of the major MVP candidates, but how can anybody dismiss Miami’s Dwyane Wade?

He was leading the NBA in scoring, averaging nearly 29 points. Wade was also averaging nearly seven assists, while already helping the Heat surpass last season’s meager victory total of 15.

After missing 31 games in each of the previous two seasons, Wade showed he was back during an outstanding performance in the Olympics, leading the gold-medal U.S. team in scoring (16 ppg.).

Wade has taken his game to a new level during the NBA season.

And that brings us to some other players who are enjoying truly outstanding seasons, but are overshadowed statistically by the dominance of James and to a lesser extent Bryant and Wade.

Few players have made a greater impact than Denver’s Chauncey Billups since his trade from Detroit.

The Nuggets improved to 19-8 since acquiring Billups after a 117-110 win at New York on Dec. 28.

With Denver, Billups was averaging more than 18 points and nearly seven assists per game. He has brought stability and direction to the Nuggets and has been a major upgrade over Allen Iverson, who was traded for Billups to Detroit.

One player who is receiving almost no mention for the MVP award is Boston’s Kevin Garnett, simply because he doesn’t have glowing statistics, except in one category – wins.

The Celtics won 28 of their first 32 games and what Garnett brings to the defensive end is as important as his offensive contributions.

Unselfish to a fault, he has averaged 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocked shots and was shooting 53.9 percent from the field.

He is the reigning defensive player of the year and could win the award again this season. Because Garnett isn’t averaging 25 points per game, his contributions tend to be overlooked, except by those who know that he’s the most important player on the defending NBA champions.

Last season Chris Paul finished second to Bryant in the MVP race and the New Orleans Hornets point guard is again a viable candidate.

Paul was averaging more than 20 points and 11 assists along with three steals per game for a Hornets team that began the week with the second best winning percentage in the Western Conference.

Two other candidates, both from the Eastern Conference are Orlando center Dwight Howard and Atlanta guard Joe Johnson, one of the most underrated great players in the NBA.

Howard is leading the NBA in rebounding and blocked shots and more importantly, the Magic had won 24 of their first 30 games.

Johnson was averaging more than 23 points and five assists for an Atlanta team that was nine games over .500. He is also averaging 40 minutes per game and has yet to show any sign of fatigue.

The competition is so stiff, that we haven’t even mentioned two-time MVPs Tim Duncan of San Antonio and Phoenix’s Steve Nash or 2006-2007 MVP Dirk Nowitzki of Dallas. It also leaves out players such as Houston’s Yao Ming and Toronto’s Chris Bosh, who were both averaging more than 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.

There is no shortage of worthy candidates, but right now, none is more deserving than James.

Share: