Age and injuries are haunting the team
During his tenure as San Antonio Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich has shown a great ability to navigate his team through the rigors of a grinding 82-game regular season schedule. Popovich wouldn’t burn out players just for the sake of winning a few extra games. What was important was having his team ready to go for the postseason.
And the results have certainly validated Popovich’s strategy with four NBA championships and two more trips to the Western Conference finals since 1999.
Popovich has adeptly used the regular season as a five and a half month postseason tuneup.
This year things are different.
Due to some key injuries to an already aging roster, the Spurs could find themselves in the fight for their lives just to earn one of the eight Western Conference playoff spots.
While nobody can minimize injuries to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs have some serious questions.
First the injuries.
Ginobili isn’t expected to return until next month in his recovery from ankle surgery. The ability of Gnobili to generate instant offense has been sorely missed.
And if that wasn’t bad enough, Parker is expected to miss four weeks after spraining his ankle in a 99-83 loss on Nov. 7 against the visiting Miami Heat.
Parker was off to his best start, averaging 27 points in the first five games, and that included just four points in 10 minutes before he got hurt against the Heat.
Remember, with Parker, the Spurs had gotten off to a 1-4 start. And the win was a 129-125 double overtime victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
In that game Parker torched the Wolves for 55 points.
Think about that.
The Spurs, with Parker providing a career-best effort, still needed two overtimes to dispose of the lowly Wolves.
Without Parker, the point guards on the roster are rookie George Hill and old-timer Jacque Vaughn.
Assuming that the injury is only four weeks and not longer, the fact remains that neither Vaughn nor Hill appear to be a suitable replacement. .
So expect the Spurs to explore some sort of trade and it doesn’t have to just for a point guard.
San Antonio is deficient in several areas.
Of course Tim Duncan should be exempt from any criticism. In the first five games, Duncan was averaging 26 points and 11.6 rebounds. A more telling statistic is that he was averaging 39 minutes.
Popovich has had no other choice but to ride his 10-time all-star. Duncan, however hasn’t carried such a heavy workload in recent seasons. During each of the previous four regular seasons, he averaged fewer than 35 minutes per game.
These extended minutes Duncan is playing now could be felt by March, when the Spurs hope to be making a mad dash for a Western Conference playoff berth.
Duncan will turn 33 on April 25 and there is a legitimate question as to whether his team will still be playing on that date.
Even if Parker and Ginobili return to form, the rest of the roster must become more productive.
One positive has been the play of former Washington Wizard guard Roger Mason, who was averaging more than 16 points and 34 minutes per game. Mason is somebody with a career average under six points.
It’s true that Mason was never was given this much playing time in the past, but could he hold up for an entire season with extended minutes and heightened expectations?
Michael Finley has averaged six points in just under 30 minutes per game. At 35, Finley is a liability if he isn’t able to shoot with better accuracy. And Finley has struggled from the perimeter, shooting under 27 percent from the field. .
The fact that he’s averaging so many minutes speaks to the lack of depth for San Antonio.
Bruce Bowen, 37, has seen his time decline. He is known as a defensive stopper, but in all fairness, isn’t quite the player he has been in recent past. And when the Spurs are on offense, it’s like playing four against five.
Center-forward Kurt Thomas is 36 and one wonders if he has gotten off to a slow start, or if he is among many Spurs who are showing their age.
Swingman Ime Udoka, forward Matt Bonner and forward-center Fabricio Oberto must step up their game and one wonders if that is possible.
For many years the trio of Ginobili, Duncan and Parker have been able to blend with role players to make the Spurs a championship contender.
This season the role players have provided diminished production. Which is why even when the Big Three are healthy together - and one can’t be sure when that will be – the Spurs are going to have to acquire a dependable player or two off the bench.
If not, the Spurs face the real prospect of missing the postseason for the first time since the 1996-97 season.
Gerard Himself Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 6:35 am
It’s really, really early to post about the Spurs who might miss the postseason. Sure, they’re old, yes, they do have problems, but if Ginobili and Parker both return in December, I like to see what will happen next. I’m not saying they will win the WCF, in fact, they might not even be in the top 4. But the season is only 2 weeks old, let’s see how they will do come late December.
knoc Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 6:38 am
They should just tank the season and get the top overall pick and some 2nd rounders. Itl be the admiral and big fundamental all over again.
eaRL Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 10:25 am
My Prediction after this Nba Season for spurs:
Spurs out playoffs.. 9th or 10th probably..
Tony Parker out 2 to 4 wks (8 to 14 games)
Standing atm.. 1-4
11 games w/o parker 4-12
Parker returns..
next 12 games with parker.. let’s say 7-5
standing 11-17
Manu Ginobili will return 3rd week of Dec
last year San Antonio standing (56-26) 0.683
28 games so far (11-18)
54 games left if converted to last year percentage which I doubt atm.. 36-18
adding 47-36.. not enought to last year 8th placer Denver (50-32)
I’m a Spurs fan since TD comes to Spurs but atm.. for what I see we could now
press the panic button..
Bill Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 11:35 am
Nice analysis Earl. But is does not take into account the fact that they might be able to will themselves into the playoffs. With Ginobli back there are pretty much only 4 or 5 teams better than they, so if they play on a mission to make the playoffs, they could pull it off.
emma Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
but think about it… the last time the spurs missed the playoffs was the 1996-1997 season and in return they got Tim Duncan, he then became a great compliment and sidekick to the already aging/aged David Robinson.
i think the same thing can happen this season, they lose… go into the lottery and get a big to compliment an already aging Tim Duncan. someone like Blake Griffin out of Oklahoma or B.J. Mullens out of Ohio State. or they can get another star guard like Demar DeRozan. the latter more likely…
i say loosing Parker and Ginobili for another month or so is a good thing. that way, the Spurs can see what they lack and what they’re missing. they have to come into terms that these same group of guys are getting old and that they won’t be able to compete at the highest of levels anymore. losing this season is good, they get to draft in the lottery, they get to retool and fix their roster and more importantly they get to rest. by the time next season comes, they’re rejuvenated and ready to compete again.
that’s if they lose and they don’t compete anymore this season. we’ll see…
mike Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 1:51 pm
emma, Duncan wasn’t just any pick out of the draft though. He is the greatest power forward to ever play, I doubt another will ever be drafted as good as him.
Dan Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
Well put Mike,
This upcoming draft doesnt have nearly the amount of talent of this years rookie class. Its not like Pop will ever let the Spurs w/ their big 3, although aging and hurt tank a season for a bottom half lottery pick. BJ Mullins is unproven and Griffin will most likely go 1 or 2.
The Spurs will no doubt be competing for the last few spots in the west, even if they’re out of contention by a few games by the end of the season, Pop is not the type of coach to sit their stars for a better chance of a higher pick
David Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 4:57 pm
I think the Spurs are really missing Brent Barry. He could step up and play either guard position, and while no longer (or ever) particuarly athletic, he could at least make good decisions and hit an outside sot.
But that is spilt milk.
I agree that once everone is “healthy” they will be a force. But that all depends on when and hopefully it won’t be too late. The West is tough.
Blogger: Age and injuries haunting the Spurs - SpursReport.com Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 5:29 pm
[...] HoopsHype.com NBA Blogs - Marc Narducci During his tenure as San Antonio Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich has shown a great ability to navigate [...]
Gabriel Said,
November 11, 2008 @ 6:23 pm
The Spurs already found the solution, but it will only be available in the next season: Thiago Splitter.
Michael Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 1:38 am
The Spurs will be fine. Everyone rushes to write them off at the start of every season. This is no different.
David Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 10:48 am
Gabriel,
I think Tiago signed a multi year contract and unfortunately won’t be coming. He really would have helped.
Terrance Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 3:18 pm
The Spurs still have the potential to be a championship caliber team, they just haven’t done a good job surronding their big 3. Tim is the oldest of the 3, and he has shown this season he could still play just as good as before. Their problem is the role players-the Lakers exposed that in last years playoff series, as the younger, deeper, and more athletic team. Their goal in the offseason was to get more athletic players, that can create their own shot. Instead, they resigned Finley and Kurt( not a knock on them, they’re just more of the older players they have) Roger Mason was a decent pickup, but he alone won’t make a difference of them winning. They still need an athletic big man next to Tim, a backup PG, and a few younger more athletic bench players. I believe they tried to pick JR Smith during the offseason, he would have been huge for them. If they adress their needs, they could still be able to win until as long as Tim could go. But if Pop still wants to coach the same old players, they are finished.
Ron Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 5:12 pm
Everyones knows the Spurs need to inject some youth into their lineup, including the Spurs. Then why sign Bruce Bowen to a multi-year extension and re-sign Micheal Finley in the offseason? Ime Udoka is a good defender and hit the occasional 3-pointer (just like Bowen can) and there were a couple of young, affordable restricted free agents on the market this past offseason (J.R. Smith, Louis Williams), and San Antonio went for none of them. If the Spurs want to remain contenders in the West, instead of just letting nature take its course by following that “every team has their high points and their low points” cliche, they need to make some changes. Just look at what happened to Dallas and Phoenix last year when the Lakers and Hornets crept up out of nowhere and stole the show. This year, Houston and Utah are looking to bring it, too.
The Spurs still have some pieces to be a Championship-caliber team. Tony Parker is still very young, so he’s a keeper. Manu Ginobili’s in his early thirties but he’s still better than 90% of the other 2-guards in the league, so he stays too. Tim Duncan is the centerpiece of it all so isn’t going anywhere either. And the Spurs are to loyal of a francise to trade the guy whose been there for ALL of their francise’s Championships. But Finley, Oberto, Bonner and Vaugn have definitely got to go. Bowen does guard every from Kobe Bryant to Chris Paul to Dirk Nowitzki, so he could stay until his contract is up. Imagine Josh Smith playing Tony, Manu and Tim up front? Scary. But OK, that may be to much of a stretch. Guys like Jason Maxiell, Paul Millsap, and Travis Outlaw are the kinds of players they need to be targeting. Last season, they let Ron Artest slip away and got Kurt Thomas instead. Ouch. I bet they wish they can turn back time for that one.
P.S. And please… don’t sign Steph.
Stuckey Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 6:14 pm
Spurs are thin. Bowen, Finley, or Kurt Thomas would not get playing time on any other roster.
Well, maybe the Thunder or the Clippers.
Paul Said,
November 12, 2008 @ 7:08 pm
The problem the Spurs have is that they are so thin, they really don’t have anything to trade to get better, except TD, Ginobili, and Parker. If they wanted to be really bold, they would try to move Ginobili and TD, get some younger talent and draft picks over the next few years, and rebuild around Parker. Won’t happen, but you could get a ton for Duncan and even Ginobili would bring some talent.
space Said,
November 13, 2008 @ 2:27 pm
they’ve only played 8 games!?!
there is still 85% of the season left… let’s drop this topic now. come talk to me when they are 15 games out of the final spot around the allstar break.
blasphemy Said,
November 15, 2008 @ 11:22 am
David, Tiago has a few clauses that would allow him to come to the nba… his Tau contract expires after 11-12.
blasphemy Said,
November 15, 2008 @ 11:49 am
This original post is junk! As of 15/11/08 the Spurs are 1 game out of that elusive 8th seed behind the powerhouse Sacto Kings. Even more so, they have 5 month to make up 1.5 games and move ahead of teams like Houston, Denver and New Orleans…
In 2003-2004, the Spurs had a 3-4 record to start the season, they opened with a 10-10 record after the month of November. They finished with the 3rd best record in the league that year (1 game behind the top team in the West).
It’s rediculous to speculate about the playoffs at this time. For one, the Spurs youth and new additions are getting extra playing time which is never a bad thing when you’re trying to learn a new system. Another, Parker and Manu will start (or resume) there season in December… If time is taken to rehabilitate their injuries, that just means they’ll have less games under their belts come April/June and less season mileage. As for Duncan, it’s rediculou to think Pop won’t taper down his minutes at some point in the season. It’s not like Duncan hasn’t played elivated minutes for a stretch in the past. for example Jan 29tt to Feb 13th Duncan played over 38 minutes a game over 8 games.
People should start looking at the big picture.
EBJM Said,
November 15, 2008 @ 11:07 pm
“The Spurs already found the solution, but it will only be available in the next season: Thiago Splitter.”
Tiaglo Splitter signed a huge extension with Tau Ceramica that will keep him in Spain until 2012. They made a huge mistake in trading Luis Scola to Houston. He would look pretty good alongside Duncan today.
Their future depends upon rookie PG George Hill, rookie PF Anthony Tolliver, rookie center Ian Mahinmi, rookie SG Desmond Mason, new Spur starting SG Roger Mason, a career 6 point per game back-up, and Bruce Bowen’s replacement Ime Udoka. Mahinmi still isn’t ready for prime-time, the Spurs just sent him to the Austin Toros of the “D” league.
Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Matt Bonner, Jacque Vaughn, Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen are all FINISHED!
As are the Spurs! Parker and Ginobili are both out for another month.
auron Said,
November 16, 2008 @ 4:45 am
guys, spurs has a better record than Dallas.
they just have to make the playoffs. 6th or 7th would do. We know they can win on the road!
Blackbooty Said,
November 17, 2008 @ 1:12 am
EBJM…
Those players are finished based on what? ? They combined for 46 points 19 reb 10 ast on 17 for 37 (46%) shooting 6 for 11 on three’s. Is that your idea of poor contribution? Also, Thomas didn’t play. Did it matter? No.
As for Roger Mason having a career average of less than 6ppg… what’s yur point? Mason at the age of 27 notched 9 ppg last year, his first full season as a pro. Does it really matter what he failed to accomplish before last season??? It might matter as much as Michael Redd averaging less than 3 ppg in his rookie season. It’s all relative, a Pro like Mario Elie didn’t start playing in the NBA untill he was 27… that year he averaged 7ppg and went on to play significant minutes on 3 championship teams over the next 10 years, never averaging more than 11 ppg. It doesn’t matter if Roger Mason’s career average is 6ppg or 16ppg… they got him because of his skill set, not his ability to post averages. They would have went for Bonzi Wells a career 12ppg scorer or kept Stoudemire, his career average is 13ppg.
By the way…
Mahinmi isn’t a rookie, he’s in the second year of his career. He also is coming off an injury, which is the reason he got sent to the NBDL.
Desmond Mason also isn’t a rookie, he’s an 8 year pro who just so happens to be playing for the New Orlean Hornets.
Also… If Tony Parker was slated to be out for 2-4 weeks, and he’s already missed one week…wouldn’t that mean he’s out for less than a month, not another month. As for Manu, if they are talking about him coming back earlier than mid december, and we’re in mid novemeber, wouldn’t that also mean he will be back in less than a month?
U know… just…. throwing it out there.
omar Said,
November 17, 2008 @ 2:01 am
The spurs had the solution, Luis Escola
David Said,
November 17, 2008 @ 1:37 pm
EBJM, the reason Ian went to Austin was to get back in game shape. He’ll be in the Silver and Black after the all star break.
HoopsHype.com NBA Blogs - Marc Narducci » One more parade? Said,
February 16, 2009 @ 3:42 pm
[...] the person who wrote that forgettable sentence was yours truly in an article for HoopsHype.com during the second week of [...]