HoopsHype.com NBA Blogs - Peter May

In what qualifies as must-see regular season basketball in the NBA, there is no better matchup than the Celtics and Lakers.

Well, that’s one theory. The resurgence of the Celtics combined with the ongoing success of the Lakers once again rekindled this wonderful rivalry, which dates back to some searing competition in the 1960s. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson brought it back in the 1980s (while pretty much saving the NBA in the process) and now we have them once again among the league’s elite, accounting for the last two NBA titles.

But a little bit of the bloom is off the old rose as the two teams meet for the first time this season on Sunday afternoon in Boston before a national television audience. The Lakers are upholding their end of the deal, entering with a 36-11 record, best in the demanding Western Conference and second overall to Cleveland.

The Celtics? Well, let’s be charitable and just say they’re in a bit of a funk. They’ve dropped their last two games and have lost 10 of their last 16 to fall to No. 3 overall in the not-so demanding Eastern Conference. The Friday night loss to Atlanta could cost Celtics boss Doc Rivers a berth as the coach of the Eastern Conference All-Stars next month in Dallas. (That is not exactly high on Doc’s priority list right now.)

Not much has gone right for the Celtics since they thrashed the Magic on Christmas Day, improving to 23-5. Paul Pierce missed five games with a knee ailment and the team lost three of them. Kevin Garnett missed 10 games with a hyper-extended knee and the team struggled without him, losing six. Although he has returned, he bears little resemblance to the fiery and feisty KG who led the team to the NBA championship two seasons ago. He moved around like Billy Paultz in the Thursday night game in Orlando and was marginally better the next night in Atlanta.

Ray Allen and the words “expiring contract” are now being mentioned in the same sentence as the trade deadline nears, a heretical thought not too long ago. Allen, who scored only 9 points on Friday, is averaging 15.9 points a game, second fewest in his career. He’s also taking the fewest shots per game since he came to Boston, all the while leading the Celtics in total minutes played.

While Rajon Rondo has blossomed into an All-Star, and Pierce continues to play at a steady clip, the bench is a nightly challenge for Rivers. Rasheed Wallace has been up and down (but still leading the league in technical fouls) and sharpshooter Eddie House is in a slump. Rondo has no real backup and the Celtics miss the almost-forgotten Marquis Daniels, who is due back after the All-Star Game. He will have missed almost 30 games with a thumb injury.

The Lakers? They took advantage of a ridiculous, home-heavy schedule early in the season to break away from the rest of the West. They are 3-2 on their current Eastern swing, beating the tomato cans (New York, Washington and Philadelphia) while losing to Cleveland and Toronto. The Celtics are the third winning team they’ll face on the trip.

The defending champs have been very tough to beat with Pau Gasol in the lineup. The talented Spaniard has played in 30 games this season and the Lakers have won 25 of them by an average of 10 points a game. Gasol has missed 16 games with hamstring injuries and LA is 10-6 in those games.

Kobe Bryant, meanwhile, is poised to pass Jerry West as the all-time Lakers scoring leader. He is 47 points behind West and wouldn’t Bryant love to pass the man who drafted him against the team that so tortured his old boss in the 1960s? He averages 25.1 against the Celtics, but erupting for 48 would not be unBryant-like, even as he finishes up an uncharacteristically cold month for him (24 points a game versus more than 30 a game in November and December.)

The atmosphere in the Garden will be wall of sound stuff. The ‘Beat LA’ chants started here in the 1980s. But the Lakers won in Boston last season (110-109 in overtime) after getting beaten four times there the year before, including three in the NBA Finals. LA has won six of its last 10 regular season games in Boston, which is relatively unremarkable given how bad the Celtics were over most of that time period.

In the 1980s, these meetings were full of high drama and expectations. The two teams followed each other on a daily basis on the assumption they’d probably meet in the NBA Finals. ML Carr called them ‘The Fakers.’ The Fabulous Forum brought us Dancing Barry, the Rambis Youth and Randy Newman for the mood music. There were Hall of Famers at every position.

There is so much history here, from the great balloon story from Game 7 of the 1969 Finals (when Lakers owner Jack Kent Cooke had balloons ready for a title celebration that never came) to Kevin McHale’s series-changing takedown of Kurt Rambis in Game 4 of the 1984 Finals to Magic’s hook shot in Game 4 of the 1987 Finals.

They may have another Finals meeting and it might be this year. But that’s a long way from now. The real injustice is that they see each other only twice during the season. That’s what makes this one so appealing.

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Here’s a nugget you might not know: The Oklahoma City Thunder leads the NBA in inter-conference victories. Their victory Monday night in Atlanta pushed the surprising Thunder to 15-4 against Eastern Conference opponents. Not bad for a team which won only 23 games last season. They’ve won 23 already this season.

The success of the Thunder against the East (they are only 8-14 in their own conference) drives home the point that, once again, after a one-year blip, the Western Conference, top-to-bottom, is the best. In nine inter-conference matchups on Martin Luther King Day, the West prevailed in seven, highlighted by the Thunder’s win in Atlanta, the Mavericks’ win over the Celtics in Boston and the Lakers’ victory over the Magic at the Staples Center.

The numbers after Monday: the West has a 138-96 record against the East, which, on a percentage basis, is the biggest in five years (59 percent.) Nine teams in the Western Conference have winning records against the East and a tenth, Houston, is at .500. By contrast, five teams in the East own winning records against the West and a sixth, Toronto, is at .500.

Wasn’t it supposed to be different this season? Shaq was moving from West to East. Vince Carter was going to Orlando to make the Magic better. The Raptors spent like drunken sailors on shore leave and seemed to be poised to return to the Land of the Relevant, even though more than a few eyebrows were raised with the mother lode showered upon Hedo Turkoglu. The Wizards looked ready to return to the post-season with a healthy Gilbert Arenas (how has that worked out? Oh well.)

It seemed from the outside that the better teams in the East improved (the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace, the Hawks’ adding Jamal Crawford) which would only strengthen the conference.

Well, the rich did get richer in the East. The Celtics, when healthy (still waiting, by the way, for that glorious day), are better. The Hawks are better. The Cavs may not match their 66 wins of a year ago, but they may be better suited for the playoffs. The Magic? Well, HoopsHype’s Eddie Johnson had two Orlando players (Carter, Dwight Howard) on his top 10 list of most disappointing players. Nonetheless, the Magic are 9-6 against the West and fourth overall in the East.

So what has caused such a shift from last season, when the Eastern Conference had a 231-219 record against the West? By the way, that has been the only season in the last five where the East has been remotely successful. To wit:

2005-06: West 252-198

2006-07: West 257-193

2007-08: West 258-192

2008-09: East 231-219

2009-10: West 138-96 (through Monday)

Here are a few thoughts.

- The lower echelon teams are in the East, again. Last year, there was a great divide in the West between the haves and the have-nots. Yes, the Phoenix Suns won 46 games which would have earned them a No. 4 seed in the East, and didn’t qualify for the playoffs. But the West also housed six of the worst seven worst teams in the NBA: Golden State, the Clippers, Sacramento, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Memphis. Those five teams were 50-130 against the East, with the Kings a hideous 1-29. The remaining nine teams in the West last season were 181-89 against the East. This year, with the Nets leading the way (0-16 against the West), the worst teams appear to be back in the East. Five of the seven losingest teams are in the East.

- The Western Conference upper echelon is, again, stronger. As of Monday, there were 11 teams over .500, including all five teams in the Southwest Division. The worst of those, New Orleans, was 21-19, which would be the No. 5 record in the East. The 11 teams with winning records are 114-64 against the East. It certainly appears that for the third straight year, a 40-something win team from the West won’t make the playoffs. (Golden State’s 48-win team of 2007-08 remains the gold standard for winning teams not qualifying.) And, it could well be, that for the third straight year, a 30-something win team from the East will make it. As of Monday, Nos. 5-7 in the East were one game over .500 and No. 8 Chicago was on a pace to win 36 games.

- To date, the Western Conference has had the majority of home games. Led by the Lakers’ 26, the five teams with the most home games all reside in the Western Conference. The Spurs and Trail Blazers have played 23 while the Jazz and the Clippers have played 22. (Miami played its 22nd home game Tuesday night, most in the East. The Cavs, with 17, have played the fewest.)

- Nine of the Lakers’ 12 victories against the Eastern Conference have come in the Staples Center (as well as their only loss to an Eastern team, the Christmas Day defeat to Cleveland.) The Lakers play their next seven games on the road against Eastern Conference teams. The Eastern swing features bookend beauties (Cleveland on Thursday and their first meeting with the Celtics on Jan. 31. But the five games in between are all ho-hummers: New York, Toronto, Washington, Indiana and Philadelphia. Only one of those teams, Toronto, is currently among the top eight. The Spurs, meanwhile, will be on the road for virtually all of February, playing nine of their 11 games away from the ATT Center. But only three of those roadies will be against Eastern Conference teams.

- Is there any hope for the East? Well, no team has played more road games than the Cavaliers (25) while the Celtics have played 21 (and have more home losses in fewer games than road losses. Go figure) But the Cavs only have 11 games remaining against the West, which might bode well for them in the overall standings, but won’t do much to bridge the sizeable East-West gap. The Celtics have 17 games left against the West, including two each against the Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets and Trail Blazers. However, the surprising Charlotte Bobcats have 19 games left against Western Conference teams – 12 of them on the road. And the home games include Dallas, the Lakers and the vaunted Thunder.

So, barring something unforeseen over the second half of the year, the 2009-10 appears to be reverting to the form we’ve seen throughout the last half of the last decade. The West will reign supreme in head-to-head play. One (or perhaps) two teams from the West will get shafted by not making the playoffs while a team with fewer wins playing in an inferior conference will get in, most likely with a losing record.

Does this mean the champ will also come from the West? Hmm. Seven of the 10 NBA champs came from the West last decade, but only two teams won titles. Three Eastern singletons (Detroit, Miami and Boston) interrupted that run. The Lakers may end up with the league’s best record and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. And, if they do, they can thank the East for being a big part of that.

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Can anyone keep the Lakers from their seemingly pre-ordained return trip to the NBA Finals?

No one in the Western Conference is making the case in the regular season. The Lakers in the West look like the UConn women – a deadbolt lock. But we all know there is the regular season and there is the other season – no one knows that better than the Lakers, by the way – and a few teams out West are at least showing signs that the Lakers’ inevitable march to the Finals won’t be one in which they’re showered with rose petals along the way.

What makes the West so compelling are spots 2-9 because only eight qualify and some decent team is going to get iced. We’ll can concede No. 1 to Los Angeles’ varsity entry; eight games up in the loss column with 21 games left settles that. And that is a major advantage in the playoffs.

Every series starts on your floor (and Phil Jackson has never lost a playoff series after his team wins Game 1) and every series has Game 7, if need be, on your floor. So any team out West hoping to dethrone the current conference champs has that to deal with out of the chute.

We have no idea who will emerge as the other two division champions. Denver looked to be in control of the Northwest, until Utah caught fire. Portland is still hanging around.

The Spurs, Rockets and Hornets all are in contention for the Southwest crown and the Mavericks may be as well if Mark Cuban can find ways to rip them a couple times a week. (It worked against the Spurs at home; then Dallas fell apart the next night in New Orleans.)

But, realistically, which teams can actually make the Lakers break a sweat? As of now, there are probably three, maybe four. I can’t include Denver; any team with Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith makes me too nervous, Chauncey Billups notwithstanding. I can’t include Portland; too young, but look out next year and beyond. Dallas? Nope. Phoenix? Forget it.

That leaves Utah, San Antonio, Houston and, perhaps, the Hornets. All of these teams could do it, but the likelihood, of course, is that none of them will. (The TV folks sure hope that’s the case, especially with the ‘Pass The Remote’ Spurs.)

San Antonio

No team out West has the cachet of the Spurs and their heart, soul and conscience is still there. And no, we’re not talking about Drew Gooden. The Spurs are muddling along (by their own standards, anyway) and waiting for Manu Ginobili to get healthy. If he does, they can beat anyone.

They are not intimidated by the Lakers or by having to win on the road. They’ve added a couple nice pieces this season (Roger Mason has been a pleasant surprise) and they still have the mental toughness that no one outside of LA possesses. And, don’t forget, this is an odd-numbered year and the only odd-numbered year in the last decade that the Spurs didn’t win was 2001.

San Antonio has been on a roll since New Years (20-9) and has shown some signs of late that its trademark, lockdown defense, is coming back. There’s no one that really figured out how to contain Tony Parker and the Fabulous Frenchman is having a terrific season. The Spurs have realigned a bit; Bruce Bowen now comes off the bench and coach Gregg Popovich finally found a use for long-range gunner Matt Bonner.

Gooden’s arrival had some around the league scratching their heads, for he’s not exactly known for his defense (although he does rebound.) But the Celtics would have taken Gooden in a heartbeat had they not had health concerns (Doc Rivers coached Gooden in Orlando.) These guys came within a horrible call last year of knotting the Western Conference Finals at 2-2. Dismiss them at your own peril.

Utah

No team is hotter than the Jazz. And it wasn’t until the team played its 57th game of the season – on Feb. 23 - that coach Jerry Sloan could submit his anticipated starting lineup to the stat crew. When Carlos Boozer played early in the season, either Deron Williams or Mehmet Okur was out. Boozer then went on the shelf for 44 games, but has returned with a vengeance. He had 20 points and 17 rebounds in a recent win over the Rockets.

Sloan has the versatile if occasionally goofy Andrei Kirilenko coming off the bench along with rebounding machine Paul Millsap and sharpshooter Kyle Korver. The Jazz went 20-9 after the All-Star break last season to take the fifth seed in the West. They went into Friday night’s game against Denver – at home – having won nine in a row, eight of them coming after the All-Star break.

They are getting healthy at the right time and if they can stay that way, they have the pieces to not only take the division, but to make things interesting in the playoffs. There’s also the added incentive of winning it for Larry Miller, the longtime Jazz owner who died on Feb. 20. He had his moments, but he had a passion for the Jazz and kept that franchise alive.

Houston

The wild card if, for no other reason, the Knucklehead Factor (read: Ron Artest.) The Rockets definitely don’t seem to mind at all that Tracy McGrady has packed it in for the season and they got rid of another potential disruption in trading away Rafer Alston, who can be a royal pain in the you-know-where (don’t take my word for it, just ask Sam Mitchell.) That’s 40 percent of the regular starting lineup gone and, until losing to red-hot Utah last Wednesday, the Rockets had won eight of nine.

One league exec called Houston “the fly in the ointment” for what looms as their untapped (and unknown) potential. They have Yao Ming and no one else does. Artest can defend, but he’s, well, Artest. Coach Rick Adelman has several outside shooters at his disposal, including Aaron Brooks, who has taken over for Alston.

The short-term goal for Houston is simply to get out of the first round. Yao has never done that. But if they do and get some momentum going, they present some headaches for anyone. If only they could play the playoffs in February; Houston has now gone two straight years without losing a home game in the month.

New Orleans

A couple weeks ago, it looked like the bottom might fall out on the Hornets and they’d be the odd team out in the West. But with Tyson Chandler returning (at least for now) and Chris Paul continuing to dazzle (27 points and 15 assists on Thursday night), New Orleans has won six straight and is back in the picture again.

They still need to get Peja Stojakovic rolling so he can be the much-needed third scorer behind Paul and the most unappreciated good player in the league, David West. But even with a full deck, does New Orleans have enough to overtake the Lakers in a seven-game series without the homecourt advantage?

They had LA beat recently in a game at the Staples Center before a dumb play cost them the victory in overtime. The addition of James Posey may not be statistically significant (or quantifiable), but he is a big guy when the money games are on the line. Just ask the good folks in Boston or Miami.

The Lakers still loom large, however, but, as David Stern likes to say, that’s why they play the games. But if Andrew Bynum comes back healthy, you might ask yourself, ‘why bother?’

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