HoopsHype.com NBA Blogs - Eddie Johnson

The Lakers have been one of the most dominant forces in the Western Conference for decades and the last few days tell you why. When it looks like this franchise might be on an elevator going down, they find a way to re-direct it back up again.

A few years ago the Lakers were fighting to make the playoffs and in one big swoop Pau Gasol falls in their laps. And then they come upon a major find in Trevor Ariza that leds to another title this year.

Faced with another problem having to sign Lamar Odom and Ariza this offseason, the Lakers have come up smelling like roses once again. How can you go from losing one of your key components and actually get better in the process?

Well, the Lakers just did that by signing Ron Artest. Yes, he will be a problem at times, but the Lakers arguably have the two best all-around defenders and scorers in basketball with Kobe and Artest in the lineup. Artest made one of the best free agent decisions I have seen in a while not based on salary.

I am laughing at the fact most people think Artest is on the edge. To me he looks like the smartest free agent in the pool.

I have always said if he ever made it to a team with a winning culture he would explode and become an All-Star every year. I know Lakers fans are a little down about losing Ariza and I can relate to their disappointment, but don’t think Ariza is anywhere near the talent of Artest.

I will go on board right now and say this: Trevor Ariza will struggle on the island he is going to in Houston. Role players need stars to enhance their game. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady might not even play next year and that will force Ariza to be the player he is not.

Ariza will pay the price for thinking he was worth more than the Lakers offered him and he will suffer while Ron-Ron will make less and be extremely happy for the next three years. Ariza did not think about why he excelled. Making a decision based on dollars might not ever get him to the Finals again, which might be OK with him.

Artest should fit right into the triangle offense because he is an excellent ballhandler and passer. Kobe will be able to get more rest during the regular season because of Artest’s ability to score when the shot clock is expiring. This is something the Lakers could not get out of Odom, but Artest will bring that ability every night which is huge for the defending champs.

Also don’t forget that Phil Jackson loves the bad boy mix on his teams. He turned Dennis Rodman into a cult hero and if Artest plays as expected he too will reach that level of stardom with the Lakers.

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The Orlando Magic finally arrived in Los Angeles Sunday night and although they accounted for themselves much better than in Game 1. They still are headed back to Orlando searching for answers and down 0-2 in the series. They say the playoffs don’t start until someone wins on the others floor. Well, if the Magic do not find a way to recover the shooting magic among their guards, the Lakers will end these Finals rather quickly.

Game 1 was all about defense and Kobe catching fire in the third quarter. The Magic could not stay in the game because they shot a dismal 23 of 77 from the floor. Kobe Bryant had 16 field goals all by himself.

Game 2 was much better, but the Lakers’ ability to close down the stretch with flawless play and active defense is what secured the victory.

KEYS

Interior defense

The Lakers are one the best teams at rotating out of double-teams and in the first two games they have caused Dwight Howard to turn the ball over nine times. Usually, when the center turns it over it leads to fast-break points and the Lakers have capitalized consistently. Although Andrew Bynum has been a non-factor, their defense inside has been great.

Leaving Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee alone

I knew coming into the series that this would happen and it always does. Great teams will roll the dice on a mediocre shooter and take their medicine and double-team a great player like Dwight Howard. That’s what Cleveland did in the Conference finals, but those two burned them all series long and Mike Brown was criticized for doing the obvious. Rafer Alston is a career 39 percent shooter from the field and the Lakers will leave him alone all series even if he hits five in a row. They cannot afford to leave anyone else and after two games Alston and Lee are a combined 7 of 30 from the field and 0 of 9 from behind the arc.

Crunch time

The Lakers just got it done Game 2. They took care of the basketball and made their free throws. That is always a way to find success down the stretch in games. Defensively they forced untimely turnovers when the Magic had the lead and the ball. The experience of losing to Boston last year has the Lakers playing at a frenetic confident pace, which has secured two victories and a controlling lead in the series.

Ariza the unsung hero

Trevor Ariza did not allow Hedo Turkoglu to walk the ball up the floor when Stan Van Gundy was forced to play him at point guard. He pressured him constantly and wore him down and that’s why we saw Courtney Lee and JJ Redick handling the ball too much late in Game 2. That shot taken by Lee with about 9 seconds to go is normally for Turkoglu, but he was tired and Lee was forced to take a shot.

Orlando melts down

The plane ride home could not have been pleasant with Orlando knowing they had Game 2 locked up. They missed five straight free throws during a stretch in the third quarter and early fourth that could have had them ahead by six points. They also threw the ball away three times when they had a two-point lead in the middle of the fourth quarter. Lewis and Redick, probably their two best shooters, missed wide open three-point shots when the Magic where already ahead by one point. Finally, Lee missed two layups at the end of regulation that could have given the Magic the lead and won the game.

MVP Odom

Although Kobe has been his normal self, Lamar Odom has been the most important player on the floor after two games. He made some huge shots in the fourth quarter of Game 2. His length and smarts have stabilized the Lakers’ bench. He has done what Mickael Pietrus did in the Cleveland series and that is virtually dominating the production from the bench. He has scored 27 of the Lakers’ 43 bench points and has grabbed 22 rebounds.

WHO NEEDS TO STEP UP?

Los Angeles LakersAndrew Bynum has got to give the Lakers something on the road. Kobe, Pau Gasol and Odom have scored 139 of the Lakers’ 202 points. If this trend continues with Bynum, L.A. could find this series tied up after four games. It is one thing to win with virtually only three players at home, but doing it on the road offers a different scenario and I expect the Orlando role players to shoot the ball much better in Game 3.

The Lakers’ bench has not offered much, but until now they have not had to. The test will be in Orlando and Phil Jackson will need some production from someone other than Odom.

Orlando Magic

The guards have been just plain bad. Where is the swagger that we saw in the Cleveland series?  Alston, Lee, Pietrus, Reddick and Jameer Nelson have all been bad (20-59) and what’s sad is that they will have to continue to shoot the ball. Pietrus is the obvious choice, but history is starting to catch up with him and his shot seems to have taken a nose dive at the sight of Kobe. I am not in the locker room, but I have been in 17 others during my NBA career and I see fear in the eyes of Lee and Pietrus when they face Kobe. They need to call Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell to get advice on how to guard and not back down to the Black Mamba.

Dwight Howard had a great Game 2, but he must do two things for the Magic to have a chance in this series.

1. Stop thinking he can make a two-dribble move in the post against the scrappy Lakers’ help defense.

2. Stop turning the ball over making passes out to the perimeter. Those are precious possessions and because of the double team most of his passes should find a player with an open shot.

GAME 3 STRATEGY

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will continue to double Howard and leave Alston and Lee alone. They lost sight of Rashard Lewis and he almost beat them by himself.

They will also focus extra on getting Bynum involved early offensively, because they need a fourth player to score double-figures against Orlando on their home floor.

I would watch for Kobe to be ultra-aggressive at the slightest thought of his team being satisfied with getting the first two games at home. He knows that the Lakers will need to offset the tremendous emotional frenzy at the beginning of Game 3.

Orlando Magic

If the guards do not make shots early in Game 3, look for Van Gundy to have a quick trigger finger, put in JJ Redick and move Turkoglu to point guard. This lineup forces the Lakers to rotate off of a shooter, which is not what they want. If Orlando starts draining three-point shots, this will allow Howard to maneuver more inside. That would pay huge dividends for the Magic.

Attack the rim. They had numerous lanes to the basket because of the Lakers being stretched defensively, but they looked to pass instead of shoot. Look for a much more aggressive team in Game 3.

Anthony Johnson might get the call at some point in Game 3 if Nelson does not produce with his backup minutes.

PREDICTION FOR GAME 3

The Lakers will say that they will stay focused, but it does not matter. This is the biggest game of the year for the Magic and I expect them to be energized by their home crowd. Although they lost Game 2, I saw some confidence emerge from their locker room. I expect the role players to step up because, quite frankly, they can’t fall any further than they already have. I also expect Howard to have his best scoring game.

Orlando will win Game 3 and keep the series alive.

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Cleveland vs. Detroit

It is pretty obvious that the mindset of these two teams are direct opposites. The Cavaliers are hungry and willing to please while the Pistons seem like a group ready for a vacation. I continue to laugh at people who think the NBA season starts in April. The reason the Cavaliers are good is because of the consistency they have developed during the year and the reason Detroit is playing poorly is because they treated the season like a training camp. I continue to remind people about how special Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajawon, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan are. They never lost the hunger to win multiple championships. This Piston team has proven to us that they are a content group and the Cavaliers should sweep them if they don’t let down their guard.

The Pistons are paying a serious price for losing the leadership of Chauncey Billups. Combine that with the mistake of not drafting Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh in 2003 and Joe Dumars now has to blow up this team next year. I love Antonio McDyess, but the move he made by forcing Denver to buy out his contract to go back to Detroit will go down as one of the worst personal decisions he will ever make in his life.

I continue to marvel at LeBron James. He is on par with Kobe Bryant as the smartest basketball player in the NBA. We are watching a combination of skill and power that this game has never seen.  The 38-8-7 night he had in Game 1 was a message to the rest of the playoff teams that King James is on a mission.

Chicago vs. Boston

I thought Chicago made a mistake when they took Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley. I understood the marketing aspect of it all, but I still thought Beasley was the right choice. Well, I was dead wrong. Rose has proven to me all year that he was the right pick and after the 36 points and 11 assists he put on Boston in Game 1, I would tend to think the Celtics are believers as well. Doc Rivers made a remark last year when people were applauding what a great coaching job he did in the Celtics championship run… He said, “I ran the same stuff the year before and got blasted for doing a poor coaching job.”

You do not have success in this league without great players. Kevin Garnett is a great player and most importantly is the emotional leader of the Celtics. Without Garnett, the Celtics are a 5th or 6th seed. So it is no surprise the Bulls were able to beat them and it was no surprise that Rose shredded their tough defense. I love Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but they will need some tremendous defensive help from Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and the rest of the guys to make up for the loss of Garnett.

The Bulls are young and hungry and as I mentioned above in reference to the Pistons, it is hard to win back-to-back championships. I still think the Celtics have enough to win this series, but they will not if Rose continues to attack the rim and create opportunities for his teammates. This has quickly become the best series to keep an eye on.

(I wonder if Stephon Marbury realizes Derrick Rose is a mirror image of what people thought he would become with his combination of scoring, defense and the leadership he has portrayed this season).

Orlando vs. Philadelphia

I missed this game and I was extremely surprised when I saw the final score, but Philly has made a consistent effort to change people’s opinions come playoff time. Last year they had Detroit on the brink of elimination before they ran out of nerves and gas.

Orlando will now find out how difficult they are to beat. This was the worst matchup for the Magic because Philly is better at what Orlando likes to do. The edge Orlando has is Dwight Howard, but if he does not have monster games the Magic are in serious trouble.

The keys to this series are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. They cannot continue to shoot poorly and most importantly they have to get back in transition to keep Andre Miller out of the paint. Miller is the most underrated point guard in the NBA and he is a potential triple-double every game he plays.

The Magic better use the length of Lewis and Turkoglu to get more interior shots to slow the pace or the Sixers or they will suffer. Also, would someone please tell Rafer Alston that he is a point guard and not a shooter? He took 15 shots and made 5 and he shoots 38 percent for the year. Stan Van Gundy also needs to calm down or he will prove Shaq’s assessment of being a nervous coach down the stretch to be correct. A good team like the Magic should not be blowing 14-point leads in the fourth quarter. I am reminded that most great coaches will say, give me a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. The pressure is on them to solidify the win.

I think Orlando will win the series, but it will go 6 or 7, which will kill their chances to stay fresh enough to deal with Cleveland in the conference finals.

Atlanta vs. Miami

The Miami Heat are arriving in Atlanta on Wednesday, I assume, because they sent their junior varsity team on Sunday and the Atlanta Hawks spanked them and cruised to one of the easiest playoff victories I have seen in a while. Josh Smith had his own personal dunk contest going on throughout the game.

The Atlanta Hawks are a dangerous team and the scare they put into the Celtics last year is giving them the confidence to excel in this year’s playoffs. This Hawks’ version is much better defensively and extremely unselfish. Mike Woodson has done one of the best coaching jobs this year and it showed in his defensive plan against Dwyane Wade in Game 1. Wade was 8 for 21 in a devastating display of offense and defense from the Hawks.

The Heat played like a young team and left Wade alone on an island. That cannot continue to happen or this series will be over in a hurry. This victory is bittersweet for the Hawks because the challenge for Mike Woodson will be to get his team to believe that Game 1 was a mirage and the real Heat team will show up on Wednesday.

I do not expect the Heat to shoot 36 percent again and struggle from behind the three-point line (4-23), but if they do they will need to grab more than the five offensive rebounds they had in Game 1.

LA Lakers vs. Utah

The Utah Jazz will be swept out of the first round quickly if they continue to shoot 39 percent while giving up 55 percent to the powerful Lakers. Logic tells me that this trend will not continue to happen especially if Mehmet Okur gets back in the lineup for Game 2. The Lakers toyed with the Jazz in Game 1. The Jazz hung around and probably could have made it a game if they did not blow the many opportunities the Lakers gave them around the basket.

The Lakers’ length is obviously a major problem for the Jazz, so in that instance they will need to get better outside shooting from Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and CJ Miles.

The Laker bench had 33 points to offset the 37 the Jazz bench produced. Utah has no chance to win one game if that trend continues because the Lakers starters will have a stranglehold on that scoring advantage all series long.

Trevor Ariza was huge with his 21 points on 8 for 10 shooting. The Lakers are looking to close this series out fast, but they better be very cautious about any letdown in Game 2 because Utah is the most difficult place to play, especially come playoff time. L.A does not need that kind of stress in their run for another championship.

New Orleans vs. Denver

This was a beat down of surprising proportions, but not unexpected if both Chauncey Billups and JR Smith shoot the ball like they did in Game 1. I think the Nuggets would have beaten anyone shooting the ball like that. Billups sent a serious message to Chris Paul and the Hornets by draining 8 three-point shots and scoring 36 points. Smith did not shoot it well. He was 0-7 from behind the arc, but he made some acrobatic jumpers in the third quarter to put the Hornets out of their misery and think about Game 2.

The Nuggets are a volatile team and usually come playoff time those teams eventually lose, but Denver plays emotional/physical defense and the Hornets seemed to back down from it in Game 1. Don’t expect it to happen again. I picked the Hornets to win this series and I still see it happening, especially if they can keep Carmelo Anthony under wraps, which is not easy. Also Billups will continue to play well, but not to the tune of 8 for 9 three-pointers and 36 points. And that means others will have to step up for the Nuggets to win the second game.

The Hornets’ goal is to win one game away because they know the Nuggets have struggled on the road this year and the emotion they rely on can backfire when things are not going well for them.

David West has to become a more physical presence in protecting Chris Paul from the over excessive contact from Kenyon Martin and Dahntay Jones. I am sure the best officials will be working the rest of this series because it’s about to become a fist-fight.

San Antonio vs. Dallas

The benches will be the difference in this series and the Mavericks have a big advantage as it showed in Game 1. The Mavericks led by Jose Juan Barea, Brandon Bass and likely Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry outscored the Spurs bench 39 to 14.

The Spurs are a beaten-down bunch and the patchwork job that Gregg Popovich has done over the last few years has finally taken a toll. Without Manu Ginobili, I can’t imagine the Spurs beating the Mavericks trying to rely on just Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

The Mavericks have too many weapons and most importantly they are playing excellent basketball. We have to admire how good Duncan and Parker are. If you told me that 36-year-old Michael Finley, Matt Bonner and Roger Mason would be starting alongside them in a playoff series, I would have said they needed to explore what vacation destination they would be headed to after Round 1.

If Popovich finds a way to win this series, he will definitely become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He already is the best smoke-and-mirrors coach I have ever seen, but if Josh Howard can stay healthy with that gimpy ankle the Spurs will need much more than that to survive a first-round ouster.

The player of the game was Erick Dampier. His 10 points and 11 rebounds were big, but his ability to keep Tim Duncan off the free throw line was huge. Duncan had only 1 attempt in 37 minutes.

Portland vs. Houston

Aaron Brooks is the real deal. People wonder why the Rockets gave Rafer Alston away. Now you know why. Brooks has replaced the offensive production of Tracy McGrady but in a more efficient way. The Blazers have no answer for Brooks and that might be the difference in this series before it’s over. He was 10 of 17 with 7 assists and 2 turnovers and I thought jumpstarted a Rocket team that all of sudden is looking like the one team that will make it extremely difficult for the Lakers before it is over.

I can’t ignore the perfect game Yao Ming sent the Blazers way in just 24 minutes of action. He did not miss a shot. 9-9 from the field and 6-6 from the line for 24 points.

The physical presence of the Rockets and the youthfulness of the Blazers jumped off the screen in Game 1 and it will be interesting to see how the Blazers react from the beating they received.

LaMarcus Aldridge will have to show up. He was a nervous puppy Saturday and I don’t expect him to be that way in Game 2, but will it be enough?

The Blazers win with energy, but the Rockets create a major problem with their half-court offense. Don’t be surprised if Nate McMillan gives seldom-used rookie Jerryd Bayless a look to try and put some pressure on Aaron Brooks on the offensive end if he gets it going again in Game 2.

I still give the Rockets the edge in this series based on experience.

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