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Archive forPlayoffs

Predictions!

ginobili_nash_07playoffs.jpgThe NBA has probably enjoyed its finest season since Magic, Bird and a young Air Jordan were dominating the league and bringing new fans by the day. I have to admit that we are starting to see players littered around the league that finally get it. What is it? Well, it is the ability to play the game at a fundamental level the game deserves. We are seeing players that actually care about their field goal percentage, teammates, winning and respecting opponents with honest and kind comments.

This is what has been missing. This is what the old school players have been criticizing. Finally we have a product again that allows you to sit down and watch a game and appreciate the way the players compete and respect the game.

Just take a look at the MVP candidates. How can you choose between Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James? All of those guys play the right way. All of them make their teammates better and they compete with effort and passion every night.

If you have not gotten my drift, just look at how competitive the Western Conference has been all year and although the East was not up to par prove to me that Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington and Toronto are not worth watching and rooting for against the higher seeds.

This was the best season I have witnessed in a long time and I can’t wait for the postseason to get started. One warning: There will be no sweeps in the first round and we will have three lower seeds win.

Here are my picks for Round 1.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

The Celtics have been the best team all year in regards to consistency. I have always said individual defensive accolades are overrated. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen just proved my theory, because they have become defensive stalwarts in the tight team defense of the Celtics. It will be hard for the Hawks to win this series just based on the rapid fire offense of the Big Three. Plus Kevin Garnett is on a mission. But Celtics beware if you think this is a cakewalk.

The Hawks match up with you quite nicely with the likes of Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith. I did not even mention one of the best clutch playoff performers in Mike Bibby. The Hawks have the firepower to win two games in this series and they will.

Projection: Celtics in six.

Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons have been built for the playoffs for a long time and they always seem to use it to their advantage – except for last year against Cleveland. The key is Rasheed Wallace. The question is, will he or won’t he show up early in this series? If he does, the Sixers have no chance. But if he resorts to shooting 10 three-point shots a game… Well, this first-round series will venture to six games.

The Sixers are the most exciting team on the East Coast. They do it with speed and unselfishness and all the credit is pointed towards Andre Miller and head coach Maurice Cheeks. The play of youngsters Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young will be crucial for the Sixers in this series.

Projection: Pistons in five.

Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors

The Magic were one of the most exciting teams before the All-Star break and then became very boring right after. Howard can dominate and should in this series. Hedo Turkoglu has become the go-to star and has not disappointed.

The Raptors have not lived up to expectations and injuries played a part. Chris Bosh better bring it big time if the Raptors want to upset the third seed. Key player in series is TJ Ford. He is virtually unstoppable when on a roll.

Projection: Magic in five.

Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

This will be the most exciting series in the East. The Cavaliers defense better be air-tight, because if not they are in serious trouble. Also, LeBron will need some offensive help from at least two other Cavaliers – namely Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson.

The Wizards, if healthy, might be the most dangerous offensive team in the league. If you don’t believe me, then go ask Boston. Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are a load and they will exploit Cleveland in this series and finally beat LeBron.

Projection: Wizards in six.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

On paper, this series looks like it could be very competitive. But here is the problem: Denver doesn’t play good team defense. That is a serious problem when you face those 200 years of coaching experience on that Laker bench. The trio of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will score in bunches and then allow role players like Derek Fisher to flourish with wide open shots.

The Nuggets have a chance in this series if they keep defensive focus for 24 seconds and Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony realize that they will not beat the Lakers by themselves. The Nuggets have some serious fire power in JR Smith, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin if allowed to play. They can’t just stand and watch. I say the Nuggets will scare the Lakers and win two at home.

Projection: Lakers in six.

New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Hornets are America’s team. They play great team basketball and have supreme confidence. Chris Paul is downright sick. He is the single reason why this team is even on the map right now. I love David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler, but the credit all falls in the lap of Paul and head coach Byron Scott. The Hornets have one negative and it will cost them… That is experience. Players that have never been to the playoffs think the experience talk is overrated, but the young Hornets will find out fast that it is not.

The Mavericks are still trying to find themselves since the Jason Kidd trade. They couldn’t have picked a better opponent to face. The experience of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Josh Howard will be too much. They will still need some stellar defense and rebounding from Erick Dampier, but I think they will find a way to upset the Hornets and move on to the second round. I personally will be rooting for the Hornets to prove me wrong.

Projection: Mavericks in six.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns

Here we go again! The Spurs are still the champion and the Suns understand that champions never beat themselves. The Spurs have fought hard through another long season and are now trying to conjure up some energy to make another I-told-you-so run to the championship. The problem the Spurs face is that historically they have never won back-to-back. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will give the Suns fits as usual, but would that be enough to get it done?

The Suns are hungry, mad and determined to finally climb the Spur Mountain. They will get it done if Amare Stoudemire and Shaq stay out of foul trouble early and attack Duncan consistently to wear him down. Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw will have to score close to double figures off the bench thus negating Ginobili’s production. Steve Nash will have a great series and I think he will be the difference in the Suns finally eliminating the Spurs.

Projection: Suns in six.

Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz

Simple fact the Jazz don’t lose at home, so the Rockets better take care of home business against a terrible road team with a great overall record. The Rockets have bulletin-board material because they saw the Jazz virtually give up home court advantage to play them and avoid the Spurs and Suns. Tracy McGrady has to be lights out the entire series and the Rockets must dominate the offensive glass for second opportunities. Luis Scola will be the key to the series defending Carlos Boozer.

The Jazz should have mailed in their final game with the Spurs. They wanted the Rockets and they got them. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are the keys and do it extremely well every night. The Jazz will steal one game in Houston and win all three at home.

Projection: Jazz in seven.

Comments (252)

Conference Finals ramblings

Emanuel GinobiliThe San Antonio Spurs have proved again that good team play and extreme luck is the foundation to move to the NBA Finals. Last year with Tim Duncan hobbling on a bad foot, they were ousted by Dallas. But this season they were rewarded with an abundance of good fortune.

In Game 1 against the Suns, Steve Nash goes down with a cut nose with three minutes to go. Game 4 Robert Horry gets a flagrant on Steve Nash and thus forces a reaction from Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw. They get suspended for Game 5.

In the Conference Finals, they draw Utah when they thought they would have to go through Phoenix and Dallas. Then Utah, after gaining momentum with a Game 3 victory, had to battle first a stomach virus from Deron Williams and then Williams sprains his foot and struggled in Game 5. To top it off, Derek Fisher did not show up until half time of Game 5 because he was in New York tending to his daughter, who is battling an eye disease.

San Antonio probably still could have won each series, but lady luck has sure been on their side this postseason.

WHINING AND FLOPPING

I am so tired of the flopping and complaining that has taken the NBA by storm. It seems like every time an official blows his whistle he has to explain himself or the cameras catch the facial expression of a player. When does a player commit a foul and then turn and get ready for the next play or better yet when does a player make a mistake and it’s his fault and he just points the finger at himself and play on?

NBA players promote how big and strong they are, but yet a little bit of contact and they fall. I like the added circle under the basket for deciding charging calls, but the players are now using it to get constant charging fouls. Also you have jump shooters falling and flailing every time they take a contested shot. That’s one reason why we don’t see a lot of three-point plays on jump shots any more – because players lose their concentration in trying to fake like they have been fouled.

Here are my top whiners and floppers left in the playoffs.

Whiners

Rasheed Wallace: If I was an official, I swear I would see a therapist before every game I officiated with Wallace playing. He not only complains about calls against him but teammates as well. Heck, I even saw him dispute a call against the other team one time! He is a wonderful person off the court and extremely courteous. But man, during a game he is never happy. In Game 6 he got the benefit of the doubt when he blatantly fouled LeBron late in the game, but went ballistic when Anderson Varejao contested his shot late in the second overtime.

Tim Duncan: I swear he is going to cry before his career is over during a game after a call on him. He grabs his head and folds his arms and reminds me of a little boy that just got caught but says, “I didn’t do it”. I understand why Joey Crawford tossed him earlier in the year for laughing on the bench. He got so used to him frowning and giving him a hard time on the court he couldn’t stand to see him enjoying himself on the bench.

Manu Ginobili: This guy really irks me. I have never seen a player that plays so physical on one end of the court and then turns around on the offensive end and acts like someone is doing cruel things to him. I am beginning to think that either he thinks Americans are not capable of analyzing a situation or that he is David Copperfield and creates illusions. He complains virtually on every call and just like most international players he looks to the coaches and fans as if to say, “Why is he picking on me?” I played in Europe and I saw this behavior from players every game.

Tayshaun Prince: I know some of you might think this is a surprise, but watch him. He has something to say after every call and his expression is equal to Duncan’s. He threw the ball away late in Game 5 along the baseline and complained like it was someone else’s fault. Heck, even after he scores a basket he has something to say to a teammate about something he didn’t or should do. They say he does not talk much off the court, but his expressions and verbal rants during games could be why.

Anderson Varejao: First let me say I love this guy. I thoroughly enjoy his energy and wild hair swinging all over the place, but he should never complain about any whistle called on him. “What did I do?” is his favorite response. Well, let me see… You grabbed his jersey, pulled him into you and fell like you where hit and run over by a train. He probably fouled Rasheed Wallace late in Game 5, but I think this guy fouls every time he guards someone.

Floppers

Manu Ginobili: Reminds me so much of Sarunas Marciulionis, who played for Golden State years ago. I used to go into a game against Sarunas saying that I would use two fouls on him and I made sure they hurt. He would play what I called “karate ball”. He would fly into you and flail his feet and arms, thus kicking you in the shin and slapping you in the face. I told him one time that every foul I commit on him was revenge. I look at Manu the same way. This guy just beats you up. Then falls. He is so lucky he did not play in the 80s. He would have looked like a boxer back then with the fouls guys would have put on him to justify his flopping.

Anderson Varejao: I played golf last week and we had biting flies in the area. This is what he reminds me of. Sometimes you get so mad you want to kill every fly you see. I believe before his career is over he will have fallen more than 30 players combined. Does he think officials are stupid? Sometimes I wonder because he falls like he got hit by a car doing 100 mph. Rasheed Wallace big shot in Game 2 was made easier because he bailed out on the play. Mike Brown I am sure has reminded him that officials in the NBA for the most part allow the players to win the game and flopping will not be rewarded.

Bruce Bowen: Bruce has a look that says “Why is everyone picking on me?” He guards you extremely close and reacts like he did not do anything when a player tries to remove him from inside his jersey. He reacts with the movements of someone who has been violated. The advantage I give Bowen is that he keeps the same facial expression. He is like “What? I am just doing my job and he is mad because of it, Mr. Official.”

Richard Hamilton: Rip has taken a page from Reggie Miller although Reggie never fell after jump shots as much as Hamilton. I know he tries to get everyone feeling sorry for him because he looks frail running around the court. Please, Hamilton is the best conditioned player on the floor and pound for pound extremely strong. He just gives you the look that someone is doing something to him and he also uses the mask as a crutch to show that his nose is vulnerable.

LEBRON’S NIGHT

Game 5 was the best performance I have seen in a long time. I have always said good offense will overcome good defense and last night was great offense. The key to it all was LeBron’s ability to knock down shots. It forced Detroit to extend their defense and that is when he is at his best. He was in a zone and 29 points later it was over. I have said this before and I will say it again: If he gets that jumper going on a more consistent basis (like he has in the last few games), he is virtually unguardable and only then is the league his kingdom. Last night, he was on the highest throne and the Pistons have their back up against a huge wall in Game 6. The Cavaliers remember last year. With Detroit having those old legs, I sense they will suffer the consequences and lose Game 6.

Comments (91)

Horry turns clutch again

Robert HorryRobert Horry has been viewed as one of the best clutch players in NBA history. He has been a part of six championships with the Rockets, Lakers and Spurs. He has made a number of late-game changing shots despite not being a big-time scorer, but Monday’s might be the best assist to win a series he has ever made.

The flagrant assault Horry put on Steve Nash in the Game 4 lost against Phoenix could possibly propel the Spurs to the Western Conference championship.

In one play when the game was seemingly over, Horry could have eliminated Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw and limited Steve Nash if he woke up this morning bruised and sore from the cheap shot Horry laid on him. I am extremely disappointed in Horry, but the true colors of individuals will always come to light when faced with embarrassment. Horry basically acted like the guy who brings his ball to the park and didn’t get picked to play, so he takes his ball and goes home.

I understand why he was disappointed. The Suns beat the Spurs at their game and especially when San Antonio thought they had control with an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. The problem I have with Horry is this is the precise reason why he is considered to be one of the best clutch players ever. He has broken hearts of opposing fans and sent opposing teams to the locker room with despondent thoughts after making late-game winning shots when they thought they had the game won. Now when the shoe is on the other foot, he resorts to taking out the smallest and most important player for the Suns. I wonder… If that was Kurt Thomas, would he have sent that message to him?

I must admit Horry was one of my favorite players, but only based on his unselfishness. Suns fans have never liked Horry, though, because he forced a trade to the Lakers after the Suns acquired him and Sam Cassell from Houston for Charles Barkley. I will have a hard time understanding his meltdown and why a player who had no impact or confrontation in the game causes such an uproar at the end of it.

Because of it, the Suns are in deep trouble if Stoudemire and Diaw are suspended. Stoudemire’s argument is that he was checking into the game. Well, we will see if Stu Jackson believes that argument and what he decides.

Is it fair? No way. Will it be an even tradeoff, Horry for Amare and Diaw? No way. The league has a zero tolerance policy for leaving the bench area, but they have made adjustments before and in this case they should.  If they don’t, then why shouldn’t Pat Burke or Kurt Thomas provoke Tim Duncan into a confrontation or fight in Game 5. This series is about to get real ugly and the league better set a precedent soon. We have seen some flagrant acts  get overlooked in a number of series so far without suspensions and to finally suspend  two players for doing nothing will ignite the bonfire that’s been building in every semifinal series so far.

If the Spurs are rewarded with these suspensions, Robert Horry will add another clutch moment to his career and the Suns will have to beat a very good San Antonio team in Game 5 without their top scorer. I think that, at best, is wishful thinking and the Suns would have to get a second win in San Antonio to get to the next round.

Good luck!

Comments (164)

Warriors looking mortal

Baron DavisI thought these Golden State Warriors were immune to hiccupping in crunch time but, wow, what a choke job in Salt Lake City in the first two games. I wanted to be nice about this, but the more I look at the first two games of the series I keep saying the Warriors should be up 2-0.

I am not like Charles Barkley. I happen to love the Bay Area. I used to travel there every time I got a chance when I played for the Sacramento Kings. Right now there has to be a dark cloud over the city. The Warriors should have the decency to at least hold up the image of the downtrodden Dallas Mavericks.

Where’s the team that made plays against the Mavericks at will? But hold up… Did they?

Hmmm, let’s reflect back a minute.

Well, the Game 1 victory against Dallas was indeed a barn-burner. The Warriors held up under pressure and rode the great play of Baron Davis, but since then it’s been suspect when the games have been close.

Remember Game 5 against Dallas? The Warriors had almost a double-figure lead with few minutes left. Dirk Nowitzki went crazy and the Warriors lost composure down the stretch.

Well, here we go again. I will concede the Game 1 loss to Utah, but Game 2 was extremely disappointing. The Warriors had a nice lead late in the game and had a chance to seal the victory by executing the only thing on the basketball court where the opposing team can’t play defense: shooting a free throw.

Where is Mark Price, Calvin Murphy and Rick Barry when you need them? I know it drives me nuts when guys miss key free throws, but those guys must start throwing dishes when they see it.

Mickael Pietrus looked like he was facing a firing squad when he threw his two bricks and Davis, who is showing everyone how great a player he can be, missed one out of two and a chance to put the Warriors up three points later.

What really added insult to injury was the fact that Andris Biedrins, who might be the worst free-throw shooter I have ever seen other than Ben Wallace, made both of his to increase the Warriors lead.

This is a pattern that seems to be quite obvious and Utah has feasted on the weakness.

Keep the Warriors in a close game and you can beat them because of silly mistakes like Baron Davis not pushing the ball up the middle of the floor and instead stepping out of bounds on the sideline. This is all about fatigue. And the Warriors, who only play seven guys, seem to be tiring late in games.

So what should the Warriors do? What seems to be the answer to their woes?

Blow the Jazz out in Game 3 and 4 – which they will do. The Jazz are terrible on the road despite their Game 7 victory in Houston.

The Warriors and their crowd will be in rare form this weekend. The Warriors will ride the emotion of their crowd and abuse the Jazz and send the series back to Utah 2-2.

The Jazz might look like the better team in the series because they are up 2-0, but the Warriors have made things easy for the Jazz to grab the first two games.

Here are the keys…

The Warriors need to shut down Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur. Both players struggled on the road in the Houston series and I expect the same this time around. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will continue to flourish because they are fearless and Derek Fisher will cause problems with his defense.

They also need a good weekend out of Monta Ellis, who has looked intimidated and lost, to finally play like the Most Improved Player. Al Harrington has to rebound and keep Boozer off the offensive glass.

I picked the Jazz in seven games and I am sticking with it. But how can I not root for the Warriors? Although they quite frankly drive me crazy.

But I love it!

Comments (24)

Baby Bulls are getting spanked

Kirk HinrichYes, the Bulls swept the Miami Heat in the first round and that was impressive. But they are now finding out that losing that final regular season game to New Jersey will come back to haunt them.

The Bulls could be cruising like the Cavaliers are with the No. 2 seed – the one they all but handed Cleveland with that Jersey loss. Chicago is now seeing why the Cavaliers are excited about not having to face Detroit until the Conference finals.

The Pistons are your classic example of why experience is far more important than youth and exuberance. The Bulls want to play with emotion and energy. The Pistons are playing with grit and guile and that has led to a complete domination the first two games of this series.

The Pistons just have too many weapons. The Bulls expected Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton to be a problem, but when Tayshaun Prince is pouring in obscene numbers and Chris Webber is running the court like a young Karl Malone, what chance do they have?

Well, there is one way the Bulls can recover and that is to find a way to speed the game up. Detroit had 21 turnovers in Game 2 and the Bulls need to capitalize at home in Game 3.

Kirk Hinrich, who looks extremely lost against Billups, needs to really step up in the next two games and find a way to knock down shots and create some three-point opportunities for Ben Gordon especially.

Tyrus Thomas earned more minutes with his consistent play in Game 2 and along with Ben Wallace could ignite the Bulls speed factor with rebounding and blocked shots.

Bottom line: Bulls lose Game 3, this series is over in four games. The Pistons are closely paying attention to what the Cavaliers are doing to the Nets and they don’t want to be tired when King James comes to town.

Comments (37)

Suns need Thomas

Kurt ThomasMike D’Antoni is extremely close to a crossroads concerning how to deal with Tim Duncan and who will play the pivotal role in doing it. The answer has to be Kurt Thomas. Although he might slow down the Suns fast-paced attitude, Kurt Thomas gives them the antidote to solving the Spurs ability to slow down the game.

The Suns must face facts and realize the only way they will speed up the game is to get a lead playing at the Spurs pace first. And the only way that will happen is on the defensive end, because the Spurs will run their offense through Duncan every time when he is on the floor.

The reason why the Suns play James Jones and Boris Diaw is that they want to play fast. Well, if those players only produce 7 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists in 34 minutes combined in Game 1 the argument could be made that Kurt Thomas should have gotten a bulk of those 34 minutes, instead of only 13. Maybe he could have held Tim Duncan to 25 points and helped negate the 14 offensive rebounds the Spurs had in that game. But most importantly, he could have defended him one-on-one, thus taking away key three-point shots made by Robert Horry and Michael Finley – who by the way cannot and will not put the ball on the floor to create anything. So those two players only contribute if the Suns do help out on Duncan and give them open standstill shots. Also, it will allow Amare Stoudamire, who had 18 rebounds, to dominate the weak-side glass and stay out of foul trouble.

Key for the Suns if they are too win this series… Make Duncan score 50 and don’t allow Finley, Horry and Brent Barry to have an impact on the game. The Suns have too many offensive weapons to allow Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to beat them alone. Phoenix will win this series in six games if Thomas is allowed to be a factor.

Comments (63)

Dallas disaster was predictable

nowitzki_mavericks.jpgI saw this coming, but I did not think it would happen. I thought the inexperience of the Warriors would not allow them to pull one the greatest upsets ever in the NBA. When I saw the way the playoff ladder was shaping up the last two weeks of the season with Golden State and the Clippers fighting for the eighth seed, I thought “This is not fair.” Here you have a club in the Clippers that made the semifinals last year with the same identical team and the Warriors who also underachieved early, but were playing the best basketball in the NBA to end the season.

The Mavericks really set themselves up by trying to avoid playing the Warriors in the playoffs by basically throwing a game away at the end of the regular season, hoping that they would move up to the seventh spot. Avery Johnson sent a message to the Warriors and his team by sitting Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse in that key game for Golden State.

When the Warriors clinched the eighth seed, they entered the series with the psychological edge over the first seed – a team that won 67 games.

Here is why the Warriors had that edge and I wrote it a few months ago when I said the Suns were a better team than the Mavericks…

The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team with no inside scoring whatsoever. I have never seen a team win a title that had no inside-presence scoring. That’s why the Heat figured them out last year and eventually won four straight to get the title. They just took away their ability to make jump shots.

The Mavericks top four players are all jump shooters. Nowitzki, Howard, Stackhouse and Jason Terry get the majority of shot attempts and most come from 15 feet. The reason it has worked the last two years is because DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier provided very good interior defense and offensive rebounding – thus giving a very good shooting team more opportunities.

The reason the Mavericks were so dominant this year is because they used their shooters differently than, for example, the Suns or Warriors. They used them in a half-court slow-down pace with one-on-one clearouts, two-man games and post-ups around the free throw line.

This allowed them to play non-scorers like Diop, Dampier and Greg Buckner, who would not have survived in an uptempo game. Thus we have the defensive and rebound presence.

This system was great against 27 teams during the regular season, but not so much against Phoenix and Golden State.

Those two teams force the tempo and play small with serious inside-the-paint scoring.

Avery Johnson changed his lineup and went small to start the series and was criticized – which I thought was unfair. He did the right thing, but realized something he already knew… His small guys could not compete with Golden State’s.

The Warriors not only have shooters, but their shooters are multi-faceted and that is something the Mavericks could not deal with.

Stephen Jackson, Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis and Mickael Pietrus can all shoot from the perimeter, drive to the basket and post you up inside. That advantage and the Mavericks inability to post the smallish Warriors inside caused this massive breakdown.

So how do you fix the Mavericks?

Ask Mark Cuban again if he misses Steve Nash. A pass-first point guard who can score is what the Mavericks need. They waste too much time and energy getting off shots. A guard that can get Nowitzki and Howard wide open shots without having to bang and dribble would help. Terry and Devin Harris are off guards and always will be.

They also need to find a post player that can defend and rebound, but also with a good post-up game to command a double team every now and then. Having an enforcer that can score on the other side would do wonders for Nowitzki.

The Mavericks will see how Utah takes advantage of the smaller Warriors inside players with Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur and forces Don Nelson to play Andris Biedrins and maybe even Adonal Foyle – especially if Al Harrington continues to be the weak link as he was in the Dallas series.

(Utah in seven, but I am pulling for the Warriors).

Comments (60)

Heat meltdown

Antoine WalkerThe Bulls flat out embarrassed the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs. When the Bulls lost to the Nets to end the season and thus put themselves up against the Heat and the Pistons instead of the Wizards and the Nets or Raptors, I looked at it as a huge mistake. But the Bulls honestly looked like they lost on purpose to the Nets so they could play the Heat in the first round.

They clearly humiliated the defending champions. But when you look a little deeper… Could you really be surprised?

The Heat came into this season still celebrating last year. They reminded me of a free agent who just got paid and said “Wow, it’s over; I can rest now.” Jerome James of the Knicks comes to mind.

The Heat forgot how hard it took them to win their first NBA title. I wonder if they remembered how bad it looked being down 0-2 to the Mavericks last year in the Finals and on the way to being down 0-3 until Dwyane Wade went ballistic.

The Heat players talked about unity and effort. They talked about hunger and respect, but yet the effort they had for representing a champion the following year was disrespectful. The Heat did not represent a true champion the way multiple champions did – like the Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets and Bulls of past years.

That’s why I respect those past teams so much – because they could have laid down or become satisfied, but the hunger remained. They wanted more.

I am sure most critics will point the finger at Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade, but that would be wrong. They are not to blame for this meltdown. It was the players around them that let Miami down.

Let me explain why.

When I played with the Rockets in the 1996-97 season, we were preparing to go against the Utah Jazz for the Western Conference championship. We had a players-only meeting to air out some feelings and strategy and when it came time for me to say something, I laid it out like this…

I pointed at Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler and said, “If we are waiting for these two to carry us to the Finals, then we might possibly fail.” I went on to say that it was wrong to expect two players that have already accomplished the feat to do it again.

I then pointed to Charles Barkley and every other player in the room that had not won a title or was a role player on a title team. I said, “This is on us, not them. They have won already and if they do not win another, they have succeeded and lived up to their star status.”

Then I said that we, on the other hand, would just become players who failed to win a championship. I said that we had to prove to them that we wanted it badly and that we were willing to add everything and then some to help them reach the level to carry us to a championship and only then would I expect those two to climb to the level that we expected of them.

We failed that year, but I can honestly say every player on that Rocket team made every effort to make things easier on our stars.

I wonder if Shaq and Wade feel like their supporting cast let them down, because they did not reach the level of consistency they had last year.

Key players like Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker, James Posey, Gary Payton and Jason Williams, who played a role in the title last season, were non-factors in this series.

The Heat organization suspended Walker and Posey earlier in the year for being out of shape and that was the first sign of the meltdown. The Heat should have known that they went to war with players that have fought for many years and probably should have looked to go with a younger nucleus this season, but Pat Riley is a very loyal coach and I suspect he felt the mistake in not going younger once training camp started and he noticed players like Walker and Payton had aged even more.

Maybe that’s why Riley decided to leave the team for surgery, but sending a message before he left by suspending Walker and Posey.

The only Heat role player that played with passion this season was Alonzo Mourning. He was the single reason why the Heat stayed competitive while Shaq was out with injury. It was not surprising that Mourning played well despite winning his first championship. After having a kidney transplant, he will never take anything for granted the rest of his life. I guess it was fitting that Mourning was the only role player to stand tall in the final game by scoring 14 points.

I will excuse Gary Payton as well because at his age and the minutes he has played in his career. He really struggled to maintain any consistency this year.

The Heat will undoubtedly be a different team around Shaq and Wade next season and if Riley can pick up a key free agent or two, things could change again for the better next season. But until then, Miami will have to suffer through the embarrassment of being swept in the first round.

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Booms and busts

Chris BoshThe 2006-07 NBA season is coming to an end and I am extremely excited for this postseason more than any in quite a long time. Taking a quick look at some possible matchups would get anyone excited.

The best matchup scenario if it could happen would be Golden State playing the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.

Why? The Warriors have beaten the Mavericks twice this year and five out of the last six times they have played. Don Nelson also knows Maverick personnel inside out and will force Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard to be involved defensively on every play. The Warriors also have the best combination of scorers in the NBA. They will make life difficult for the top seed.

Miami against Cleveland or Chicago will be a great series. Either one of these teams could win the East. How many times have we seen a matchup of potential conference champions in the first round?

San Antonio or Phoenix facing a rejuvenated Denver team that has hit the stride everyone thought they would when they acquired Allen Iverson… That would also be a great series.

This is why every round will have intrigue and surprises and whatever team can make quick work of its first round opponent will greatly enhance its ability to move on to the Finals – especially if you are Dallas, Phoenix or San Antonio.

The Suns could have the best matchup of the three playing the struggling Los Angeles Lakers.

MY SURPRISES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS DURING THE 2006-07 SEASON

This season has given us a number of surprises that warm our hearts and a few of them will continue into the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors, led by Chris Bosh, have developed into one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. They were on no one’s radar before the season started. Head coach Sam Mitchell has brought a no non-sense approach to his team and it has paid dividends. Mitchell was on the hot seat before the season and now he’s in the catbird’s seat as the Raptors enter the playoffs with the Atlantic Division championship and the third seed in the upcoming playoffs.

The Utah Jazz led by Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur won the Northwest Division and placed Boozer and Okur in the All-Star game. Williams is fast becoming one of the top point guards in the league, but a lot of the credit should go to Jerry Sloan, my pick for Coach of the Year. He has continued his old-school approach to the Jazz despite having one of the youngest teams in the league and it has paid off fast. The Jazz are still fighting for playoff positioning with the Rockets and have a great chance to make it to the second round and a possible date with the Dallas Mavericks.

When I first saw Kevin Martin shoot his jumpshot, I cringed. But when I saw the result and the high percentage of his makes, I said ‘OK.’ Martin is the poster child for my JumpShotClub DVD. I am a firm believer that the result is more important than the mechanics. Martin, like Reggie Miller and Michael Redd, has taken a different shooting form and created a positive result. Martin is the shining light for a Sacramento ball club that has underachieved all season long with a multitude of veterans, led by Ron Artest and Mike Bibby. Martin should get the Most Improved Player award this season after averaging a career-high 20 points this year.

Amare Stoudemire is two games away from playing in all 82 games for the Phoenix Suns. If you saw Amare during the preseason or read quotes coming from the Suns organization concerning his health, no way would you have thought this would be possible. Amare not only has a chance to play all 82 games, but he also promised that he would become an All Star – which he did – and should be at least a 2nd Team All-NBA selection. How important is Amare? In the games he’s played the last two seasons, the Suns are 123-39.

How would Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler look in a Chicago uniform now? The Bulls are 49-32 and have one of the most talented young rosters in the league, but they let go the low-post presence of emerging stars Curry and Chandler – who looks like a better and cheaper version of Ben Wallace. There is something to say for teams that drafted high school players and did not practice what they preached in the patience department.

Leandro Barbosa is not only the best sixth man this season, but he has become maybe its most unguardable player. Teams have changed their defenses to stop not just Steve Nash and Amare, but to negate the quickness of Leandro in the open court. Barbosa is the fastest player in the NBA. I don’t know the stats, but he has to lead or be near the top in fast-break layups. He just outruns his opponents. Then add the lethal high percentage shooting from everywhere else. Barbosa clearly will play a significant role in the Suns quest for a championship.

Hey Mikki! I love watching Mikki Moore play. He reminds me of a kid that just watched his favorite player play on TV and runs out to emulate him. He has this scowl that to him might intimidate, but it makes me laugh. Moore has taken advantage of the injury to Nenad Krstic and has evolved into a very important part of the New Jersey Nets playoff run. He has played on seven teams and has finally found a home with his constant hard work and energy.

With surprises, there are always disappointments and here are the ones that stand out like a sore thumb…

The Miami Heat leads the way as the biggest failure this season. They showed up this season not ready to defend their NBA championship. They looked unorganized and disinterested in competing for the best record and home-court advantage in a weak Eastern Conference. Dwyane Wade was given most of the credit for the Heat’s accomplishments, but this team did not start winning until Shaquille O’Neal came back from injury – something Wade couldn’t do early in the season. They could be eliminated in the first round if they face Cleveland.

New York should have been a playoff team this season and had a chance until the mental toughness of having to win home games took over. 19-21 at home in one of the most energized arenas is a major disappointment for a team that talked about showing they were a playoff team last year under Larry Brown. This talented underachieving team should at least have secured the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference. Yes, the injuries to Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson hurt, but going 2-8 with a berth on the line is a major disappointment.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers are in the same boat. They have underachieved together. Both teams stretched the Phoenix Suns to seven games last year in back-to-back series and came into this season with high hopes. The Lakers were thought to make a run at the Pacific Division crown and now face the chance of not even making the postseason.

The Clippers are battling for the eighth and final spot with a team that was upgraded with addition of Tim Thomas and went backwards. The Clippers look like a team that was happy with success and new contracts and played this year with no focus and not understanding that teams would attack them with respect this year. Elton Brand and Sam Cassell have not had the kind of year this team needed to excel and now we have re-entered the Clipper zone.

Ben Wallace has definitely helped the Bulls this season. But the question is… To what extent? And was it worth $16 million a year? Wallace is arguably the fifth or sixth best player on the Bulls, so Chicago may start to wonder if they gave up too soon on Chandler to get a player that averages 10 rebounds and 2 blocks, but shoots 41 percent from the free throw line. Wallace is a good and serviceable addition to any team. But when you are paying him all that money, he becomes a serious disappointment with his stats.

Antoine Walker has fallen and can’t get up. Players at the end of their career tend to go out in two different ways: gradually or they just fall off the table like a rock. Walker is a boulder right now. He looked at times on the court like a rookie for the Heat this year. Here is a player that seemed to have the most confidence of any player in the league. He is now hesitant and extremely low on ability and confidence.

Why does this seem to happen to certain players? Well, the major cause with most players is lost of athletic ability, which takes away their ability to create opportunities with the ball. Walker was a player that needed the ball. His fundamental skills of posting up and shooting have always been substandard. So now that Wade and Shaq dominate possessions, he has been exposed. 40 percent from the field, 27 percent from the three-point line and an embarrassing 43 percent from the free throw line… Walker is probably hoping the Heat stop playing him and subjecting him to constant booing from Heat fans.

Danny Ferry, I hope you read HoopsHype’s articles? Here is some advice… Go get some catch-and-shoot players for LeBron James, arguably the most talented player in the game.

I wrote an article when you acquired Larry Hughes a couple of years ago. I said it was a mistake then and it still is now. Joe Johnson could have been had from the Phoenix Suns, but you were so desperate to get someone after missing out on Michael Redd and Ray Allen that you chose a guy that was the opposite. Larry Hughes is on this list because of you. He can’t relate to LeBron on the court. Look at his numbers: 39 percent from the field, 31 percent from beyond the three-point line and a horrible 68 percent from the free throw line. Terrible for a shooting guard. Hughes will be the reason the Cavaliers don’t reach the Conference Finals again this year and it’s not all his fault.

Every time I look at Mike Dunleavy, I shake my head. Just look. He is 6-foot-9, athletic, can shoot, pass and defend. So what is the problem? He has no desire to excel. He has a laziness about him that drives me crazy. He is Darius Miles without the scrutiny. This guy should have been an All-Star a couple of times already. I watch him make two great moves and then pass the ball six straight times without even trying to build on the rhythm of the game. He has failed to realize that being selfish can go two ways. When you pass open good offensive opportunities, it hurts your team. The Pacers are seeing why the Warriors grew tired and shipped him out quickly after Don Nelson took over coaching the team. Dunleavy’s numbers are good for an average player (12.7 and 5 rebounds a game). But really, who is he kidding? I know not Larry Bird, who has to watch the meekness of his game daily.

Isiah, why didn’t you call me before you signed Jared Jeffries? I know it wasn’t an Indiana thing, was it? Zeke, Dennis Rodman was a freak of nature. Just like you might not ever find a point guard with your mental toughness, I don’t think you will ever find a Dennis either. Jeffries probably is the biggest free agent bust this season. He has never held up physically since he’s been in the league and his offensive skills are at NBADL levels for a player making 5.2 million a year. He shoots an astounding 44 percent from the free throw line for a small forward. How can he be aggressive offensively when he fears two free throws? Renaldo Balkman, a rookie, outplayed him for most of the year and finally took his playing time.

How can you pass up a multi year contract that would have paid you millions, sign with a contending team and then show up out of shape and eventually get suspended for the remainder of the year. Well, if you are Bonzi Wells, it can happen.

Chris Kaman, I want to congratulate you on getting paid and then taking the year off. This is the same guy that looked like a wild man with his hair swinging and physical presence. Now he is a movie star and realizes it’s not cool to be the wild man anymore.

Andrei Kirilenko and Boris Diaw would make this list, but if you dig deeper you will see why these two players have struggled this season to live up to expectations. Kirilenko has taken a back seat to Mehmet Okur, Boozer and Deron Williams and has struggled mightily. Diaw is a victim of Amare Stoudemire returning and taking back the position Diaw played last year within the Suns offense. Although the Suns would like Diaw to up his intensity level on the offensive end, he should have a major impact once the playoffs start.

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