Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
This will definitely be a competitive year and I expect this list to change come mid-season…
25. Ray Allen (24)
Ray had a very good year. He struggled at times in the playoffs, but in his defense he is better running off screens than spotting up. He had to stand a lot during the playoffs and he struggled at times because of it. Allen shot 4 percentage points above his career field-goal average last year. He averaged 18 points, shot 40 percent from behind the arc and nailed 92 percent of his free throws. Allen should flourish even more with Kevin Garnett back and the equally unselfish Rasheed Wallace on board.
24. Devin Harris
Speed kills and Harris has it. He jumps in at 24 and should be here to stay. Harris can get to the basket with the best of them and make his free throws at an 82 percent clip. Played only 69 games and shot a dismal 43 percent from the field, but I love his upside and I think he will flourish on a Nets team that will struggle all season. If Harris is not a Top 20 player this season, I will be disappointed.
23. Shaquille O’Neal (18)
Shaq had a great season last year in Phoenix although the Suns failed to advance to the playoffs. He was in tremendous shape and proved he can still flourish when in that condition. It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate it knowing the offense will not run through him like it did last year. I know he has his limitations on defense, but the Cavaliers have excellent perimeter defenders and his job will be much simpler than it was last year. LeBron will get him easy baskets, but the prevailing question is… Can he deal with getting out of King James’ way a majority of the time? That will be an issue on the court and in the locker room.
22. Danny Granger (23)
Granger has an old-school game in a new-school body. Takes what the defense gives him and makes you pay. 25 points per game and 87 from the line will give the Pacers a chance every night. Only played in 67 games last year and still put up crazy numbers. I would like to see his passing and defense improve before he moves into consistent All-Star category, but the Pacers have a player that will remind them of the scoring Reggie Miller left with.
21. Al Jefferson (25)
The best low-post ability in the game, when he is rolling he is virtually unguardable. The injury slowed him up, but it will not affect him because he plays below the rim. I believe he will become a better player because he will need to be more cerebral coming back from a season-ending injury. The Wolves unfortunately will still be bad for the next few years, but if Jefferson continues to grow as a player they will indeed have their cornerstone.
20. Kevin Durant
All I can say is, “League, watch out.” This young man can play and got better at a rapid pace with every game last year. George Gervin reincarnated with crazy range. At 20 years old, he poured in 25 points a game, shot 48 percent and grabbed almost 7 rebounds. He will be an All-Star the rest of his career and will flirt with the All-NBA team at season’s end. The one surprising aspect of his game that also has gotten much better is his defense. He should study film of ex NBA player Derrick McKey because he could become that type of defender before it’s over. The one area he needs to continue to grow in is leadership. He has a tendency to wander into his own world and forget about his teammates. He will move up on this list by mid-season and that’s a guarantee.
19. Steve Nash (22)
I have no idea why Nash has moved up three spots, but I suspect with the way the Suns will play again this year he will be higher come mid-season. For the third straight year he shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line (a record). All due respect to Ray Allen, but Steve Nash is by far the best shooter in the game and has been for the last six years. Nash also still found time to average 9.7 assists a game. He is the consummate professional and a teammate’s dream because he has no prejudice when he steps on the court. If you get open, you get the ball.
18. Joe Johnson (16)
Johnson, a personal favorite of mine, has probably the best handle for his size next to LeBron and Kobe. I would definitely like to see him improve his low-post game because with his passing ability he would destroy opposing defenses with the shooters he has at his disposal. Numbers tend to go down in the playoffs, which has to concern both Joe and Mike Woodson. He averaged 5 fewer points in the playoffs and if the Hawks are to get to the semifinals again this year, he has to be dynamic in the second season. Six assists a game will go up with the addition of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith.
17. Chauncey Billups (13)
The Denver Nuggets should have given him a huge bonus, because he made them a ton of extra money that they would not have seen had they stayed put. He automatically settled them down and made them think about Team instead of I. Billups is one of the best leaders in the game and definitely one of its best clutch players. He averaged 20 points in the postseason, but ended with a whimper against the Lakers – which probably had him working out extra hard this offseason. He needs to improve his shooting when they run him off the three-point line. He shot a dismal 41 percent from the field. I expect Billups numbers to continue to go down, thus allowing players like JR Smith to take more of the load along with Carmelo Anthony.
16. Paul Pierce (11)
They call him The Truth and he has proven up to the label for 11 seasons. Pierce is definitely the go-to scorer on the Celtics and one of the best clutch players in the league, especially in the playoffs. He has been the rock for this organization and I expect him to become one of the few players to start and finish his career with the same team. The one thing I would love to see is better conditioning. There is a part of me that always feels like Pierce has never been in the type of shape that could make him have a super season instead of the ho-hum normal 20 points per game. I guess that’s just a part of me that wants to see more because he is one of my favorite people and players in the league. Dropping him to 16th was more an age thing than production, but I expect him to explode again this season with the addition of Rasheed Wallace.
15. Brandon Roy (21)
Roy is a taller version Tony Parker. He has an uncanny ability to get to the basket despite defenses gearing up against him. He has very good all-around ability, but I cringe at how he squeezes the ball for much of the shot clock. It will be interesting to see if Andre Miller can keep the ball long enough to at least run the offense before Roy runs to it and goes one-on-one. I think that selfish part of his skills needs to change early in the game to allow teammates to gain a flow. He will find out that he would become much more potent, like Kobe has found out, when he plays more of a decoy early and becomes the assassin later. I anticipate Miller having a calming influence, allowing him to flow to a much better season. That’s why I moved him up six spots. He should improve on that 48 percent percentage and score in the 23-24 range, but be fresh in the fourth quarter.
14. Chris Bosh (10)
It’s time for Chris Bosh to show that he can put a team on his back or ask management to bring in a veteran star to help him along. Bosh averaged 22 points, but shot a disappointing 48 percent. He has to develop a better low-post game and help his team get better high-percentage shots. Every year he seems to be floating further and further away from the basket. He took 49 three-point shots last year and made 12. Bosh is more of a finesse player, but the idea of improving his three-point game is the wrong road to travel. Let’s hope he has beefed up somewhat and is willing to allow his teammates to take care of the outside game. His role is to be dominant in the paint. Most importantly, I want Bosh to make Shaq change the statement he made about him last year. He called Bosh the RuPaul of big men. Bosh did not deserve that description. Let’s see if he can make Shaq look like the old man of centers.
13. Deron Williams (19)
When healthy Williams, Chris Paul and Tony Parker are the best all-around point guards at this juncture. I expect Williams to move into the Top 10 after this season if he puts in a full healthy year. He is the strongest point guard in the league and one of the best at the pick-and-roll. He will never show his true offensive skills because the Jerry Sloan system will not allow it, but his all-around abilities will propel the Jazz towards another solid season. His numbers normally escalate during the playoffs, which tells us about the toughness and confidence he possesses.
12. Amare Stoudemire (17)
How can you go from 17 to 12 after missing the last 29 games with a dangerous eye injury? Two reasons come to mind… 1. When he came back from a micro fracture surgery, we wrote him off and he became All-NBA. 2. The Suns are going back to their 7 Seconds or Less offense and Amare will be playing center. Those two reasons along with the tremendous shape he has kept his body in will propel him back up the ladder. There is no player in the NBA at Amare’s size with the quickness and explosiveness that he possesses. I expect him to average 27 to 30 points a game and help Phoenix secure a bottom playoff position this season. Also remember this is his free agent year, so expect him to be highly motivated.
11. Carmelo Anthony (14)
Anthony is the most versatile offensive forward in the game. He is listed at 230 pounds, but don’t believe that number. Anthony is packing on 240-plus and still moves like a gazelle. He can score anywhere on the floor. I don’t like his shot selection and that is why he shot 44 percent last year, but don’t get it twisted because he is a matchup nightmare. He is the best offensive rebounder in the league playing small forward when he commits himself. His post-up ability brings double teams and when he is focused, he is a pretty good defender. The Nuggets just need more leadership from him and more consistency on the offensive end every night. He is their most talented player, but he is not their best player because of these inefficiencies. I am looking for Carmelo to put it all together this season and elevate his game all-around, which would mean the Nuggets could have a return engagement with the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.
10. Pau Gasol (15)
Ok, I was wrong! I was not a big fan of the player I called the Poodle during the Celtic-Lakers Finals last year. He moves up five spots because he is the best fundamentally sound seven-footer in the league next to Tim Duncan. Gasol’s footwork is textbook and he has a great left hand that makes him virtually impossible to guard one-on-one. He showed me everything he had to in last year’s playoffs. He showed toughness, savvy, leadership and offensive consistency even when he did not touch the ball for minutes at a time. Kobe won without Shaq, but he would not have sniffed the Finals without Gasol. So I will retire the Poodle nickname and name him The Machine. The Lakers team already had that nickname for a player, but Sasha Vujacic doesn’t deserve it.
9. Tony Parker (9)
How can you be ranked number 9 and still be underrated? Will someone show me a player that can keep Parker out of the paint? Can anyone show me who finishes in traffic over bigger players more consistently at his size? I simply marvel at how good he has become in the pick-and-roll offense. There was once a time when teams would go under and dare him to shoot, but he has become a 50 percent shooter with an improved mid-range game. That improved skill will allow him to score 22 ppg consistently against anyone. Parker never gets the credit he deserves because of the greatness of Duncan, but he is the toughest player on the Spurs pound for pound without a doubt. This season might become his best because it seems as if Duncan has taken a back seat to the offensive prowess of Parker and seems content to let him shine. And shine he will.
8. Kevin Garnett (6)
When I first met Kevin Garnett, he took off his hat and said, “It’s an honor to meet you.” When I saw Garnett last year, he repeated that. Garnett is one the best leaders in sports and surprisingly always has been. I have even been guilty of being critical of his unselfishness. We will never be able to change that and I am so glad we as fans were not successful in doing so. He has been pass-first since he came into the league. He has at times deferred to players who were simple role players and at the same time ignored our bantering to shoot more. We watched him last year sit next to sweaty players in a custom-made suit on the Boston bench while he was injured. He did not isolate himself at the end of the bench. He was in the game even though he could not play and I noticed and respected him immensely for that. Who would not want to play with a superstar like him? He made Glen Davis cry last year during a game, but people don’t get fooled on why Davis was crying? I bet he cried because he was dressed down by a player that he respects to the highest level and he did not want to disappoint him. Garnett will come back with a vengeance and I expect the Celtics to return to championship form playing with the Big Ticket.
7. Dirk Nowitzki (12)
I made a mistake last season and left him off my Top 25. I corrected it right away and I think I made another mistake putting Dirk at number 12. Which brings me to the present. I am wondering if he can eventually move into the top 5. There will never be another Larry Bird. But if he isn’t close, who will? Dirk can flat out play and he works on his game. People are quick to label him soft, but tell me who gets beat up more than him and he still lights you up. I have always stood by the simple fact that great individual defense will never stop great individual offense consistently. I think Dirk proved that last year against Denver when Kenyon Martin got toasted all series long trying to guard him. The one area he needs to improve in, and it has gotten better, is his leadership. He has the talent around him to win the West, but it’s going to take a more rounded effort from him this season. I think he can pull it off. Watch out for the improved Mavericks and the best jump-shooting seven-footer in NBA history.
6. Chris Paul (3)
I love Paul. He is one of my favorite players to watch and for one reason. His leadership is off the charts and I enjoy how he directs and takes over a game with a scowl that has much bigger players paying attention. When he retires, he will have a pick of any coaching job available because of his ability to communicate and keep players in line. It was just too bad he really could not keep a healthy team on the floor last year. Losing Janero Pargo to a Greek team did not help. Paul did not fare well in the Hornets playoff loss to Denver and was embarrassed and shut down in their last two losses. I expect him to come back with a vengeance and play like a potential MVP candidate this season. His numbers offensively will probably go up unless Peja Stojakovic and David West stay healthy and perform up to expectations. If they don’t, Paul might do a Nate Archibald offensive impersonation this season and score over 25 ppg.
5. Tim Duncan (5)
Duncan is the best leader in the game and its best power forward. I can’t say enough about what a consummate professional Timmy is. Have you ever seen him take a night off? Have you ever seen him take bad shots? Have you ever seen him not be excited for his teammates? I watched David Robinson’s induction the other night and when they put the camera on Duncan, it was obvious where he got the immediate knowledge and unselfish nature from. Robinson stepped aside for Duncan and Duncan has been allowing his teammates to succeed as well with his unselfish nature. I expect Duncan to bounce back from the nagging injuries he experienced last year and help San Antonio challenge the Lakers for the Western Conference crown this year. His all-around numbers will go up, but the one category that could get them back to the Finals will be in the assists column. He averaged 3.5 last year and with the offense flowing through him that will get better.
4. Dwyane Wade (7)
Wade moves up three spots and I am sure in some fan’s eyes it was not enough. I can’t argue with that complaint. Wade is a scoring marvel. When he came into the league, he was all about getting to the basket and flying over the rim. But now he can score from anywhere with regularity. He shot almost 50 percent last year while leading the league in scoring at 30 ppg. He also impressed me by playing in 79 games, which were about 12 games over his average. The obvious reason was that Wade came into the season in great shape and he parlayed it into a career year. The Heat would have won 25 games without him and that’s why he was considered highly for MVP. Leadership will be tested this year again with so many young players and no significant additions. But one thing is for sure: South Beach belongs to Flash!
3. Dwight Howard (4)
I have Howard above Dwyane Wade for one simple reason: He changes the way teams have to defend in the paint. The second chance factor in the NBA is huge. If you give teams second and third chances to score on a consistent basis, your team will lose. Especially if it is Orlando with its plethora of scorers. Howard is so good on the offensive glass that teams don’t expect the player that’s guarding him to garner many rebounds because he has to almost face guard him. Then you put him on the defensive end and he changes the game with blocked shots and an intimidating presence. His offense will get better with improved footwork and patience and his free-throw percentage needs to move up as well. He grabs this spot because he took his team to the Finals last year. If Vince Carter fits in like he should, they might make another appearance with Superman carrying them.
2. Kobe Bryant (2)
The Black Mamba has finally did what many thought he would not be able to do… And that is winning a championship without Shaquille. He is the best offensive player and on-the-ball defender in the league. If Kobe wanted to score 40 a game, he could. But Phil Jackson has finally convinced him to share the ball and save that bottomless energy for the playoffs. Kobe is the most dedicated and smartest player I have ever seen and I wish every aspiring young basketball player could spend a day with him.
1. LeBron James (1)
I expect LeBron to continue to ascend to levels only reserved for the greats of the game. He continues to flourish every year. His shooting percentages across the board continue to grow with his all-around game. He shot 50 percent and elevated his free-throw percentage to 78 percent last season. The 35 points per game he scored in last year’s playoffs are just a sign of things to come for King James. We need to sit back and enjoy the sick individual numbers he will continue to post as his career moves along. There is no doubt he will win a championship before his career is over. Will that happen with Shaq?
It is pretty obvious that the mindset of these two teams are direct opposites. The Cavaliers are hungry and willing to please while the Pistons seem like a group ready for a vacation. I continue to laugh at people who think the NBA season starts in April. The reason the Cavaliers are good is because of the consistency they have developed during the year and the reason Detroit is playing poorly is because they treated the season like a training camp. I continue to remind people about how special Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajawon, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan are. They never lost the hunger to win multiple championships. This Piston team has proven to us that they are a content group and the Cavaliers should sweep them if they don’t let down their guard.
The Pistons are paying a serious price for losing the leadership of Chauncey Billups. Combine that with the mistake of not drafting Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh in 2003 and Joe Dumars now has to blow up this team next year. I love Antonio McDyess, but the move he made by forcing Denver to buy out his contract to go back to Detroit will go down as one of the worst personal decisions he will ever make in his life.
I continue to marvel at LeBron James. He is on par with Kobe Bryant as the smartest basketball player in the NBA. We are watching a combination of skill and power that this game has never seen. The 38-8-7 night he had in Game 1 was a message to the rest of the playoff teams that King James is on a mission.
Chicago vs. Boston
I thought Chicago made a mistake when they took Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley. I understood the marketing aspect of it all, but I still thought Beasley was the right choice. Well, I was dead wrong. Rose has proven to me all year that he was the right pick and after the 36 points and 11 assists he put on Boston in Game 1, I would tend to think the Celtics are believers as well. Doc Rivers made a remark last year when people were applauding what a great coaching job he did in the Celtics championship run… He said, “I ran the same stuff the year before and got blasted for doing a poor coaching job.”
You do not have success in this league without great players. Kevin Garnett is a great player and most importantly is the emotional leader of the Celtics. Without Garnett, the Celtics are a 5th or 6th seed. So it is no surprise the Bulls were able to beat them and it was no surprise that Rose shredded their tough defense. I love Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but they will need some tremendous defensive help from Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and the rest of the guys to make up for the loss of Garnett.
The Bulls are young and hungry and as I mentioned above in reference to the Pistons, it is hard to win back-to-back championships. I still think the Celtics have enough to win this series, but they will not if Rose continues to attack the rim and create opportunities for his teammates. This has quickly become the best series to keep an eye on.
(I wonder if Stephon Marbury realizes Derrick Rose is a mirror image of what people thought he would become with his combination of scoring, defense and the leadership he has portrayed this season).
Orlando vs. Philadelphia
I missed this game and I was extremely surprised when I saw the final score, but Philly has made a consistent effort to change people’s opinions come playoff time. Last year they had Detroit on the brink of elimination before they ran out of nerves and gas.
Orlando will now find out how difficult they are to beat. This was the worst matchup for the Magic because Philly is better at what Orlando likes to do. The edge Orlando has is Dwight Howard, but if he does not have monster games the Magic are in serious trouble.
The keys to this series are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. They cannot continue to shoot poorly and most importantly they have to get back in transition to keep Andre Miller out of the paint. Miller is the most underrated point guard in the NBA and he is a potential triple-double every game he plays.
The Magic better use the length of Lewis and Turkoglu to get more interior shots to slow the pace or the Sixers or they will suffer. Also, would someone please tell Rafer Alston that he is a point guard and not a shooter? He took 15 shots and made 5 and he shoots 38 percent for the year. Stan Van Gundy also needs to calm down or he will prove Shaq’s assessment of being a nervous coach down the stretch to be correct. A good team like the Magic should not be blowing 14-point leads in the fourth quarter. I am reminded that most great coaches will say, give me a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. The pressure is on them to solidify the win.
I think Orlando will win the series, but it will go 6 or 7, which will kill their chances to stay fresh enough to deal with Cleveland in the conference finals.
Atlanta vs. Miami
The Miami Heat are arriving in Atlanta on Wednesday, I assume, because they sent their junior varsity team on Sunday and the Atlanta Hawks spanked them and cruised to one of the easiest playoff victories I have seen in a while. Josh Smith had his own personal dunk contest going on throughout the game.
The Atlanta Hawks are a dangerous team and the scare they put into the Celtics last year is giving them the confidence to excel in this year’s playoffs. This Hawks’ version is much better defensively and extremely unselfish. Mike Woodson has done one of the best coaching jobs this year and it showed in his defensive plan against Dwyane Wade in Game 1. Wade was 8 for 21 in a devastating display of offense and defense from the Hawks.
The Heat played like a young team and left Wade alone on an island. That cannot continue to happen or this series will be over in a hurry. This victory is bittersweet for the Hawks because the challenge for Mike Woodson will be to get his team to believe that Game 1 was a mirage and the real Heat team will show up on Wednesday.
I do not expect the Heat to shoot 36 percent again and struggle from behind the three-point line (4-23), but if they do they will need to grab more than the five offensive rebounds they had in Game 1.
LA Lakers vs. Utah
The Utah Jazz will be swept out of the first round quickly if they continue to shoot 39 percent while giving up 55 percent to the powerful Lakers. Logic tells me that this trend will not continue to happen especially if Mehmet Okur gets back in the lineup for Game 2. The Lakers toyed with the Jazz in Game 1. The Jazz hung around and probably could have made it a game if they did not blow the many opportunities the Lakers gave them around the basket.
The Lakers’ length is obviously a major problem for the Jazz, so in that instance they will need to get better outside shooting from Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and CJ Miles.
The Laker bench had 33 points to offset the 37 the Jazz bench produced. Utah has no chance to win one game if that trend continues because the Lakers starters will have a stranglehold on that scoring advantage all series long.
Trevor Ariza was huge with his 21 points on 8 for 10 shooting. The Lakers are looking to close this series out fast, but they better be very cautious about any letdown in Game 2 because Utah is the most difficult place to play, especially come playoff time. L.A does not need that kind of stress in their run for another championship.
New Orleans vs. Denver
This was a beat down of surprising proportions, but not unexpected if both Chauncey Billups and JR Smith shoot the ball like they did in Game 1. I think the Nuggets would have beaten anyone shooting the ball like that. Billups sent a serious message to Chris Paul and the Hornets by draining 8 three-point shots and scoring 36 points. Smith did not shoot it well. He was 0-7 from behind the arc, but he made some acrobatic jumpers in the third quarter to put the Hornets out of their misery and think about Game 2.
The Nuggets are a volatile team and usually come playoff time those teams eventually lose, but Denver plays emotional/physical defense and the Hornets seemed to back down from it in Game 1. Don’t expect it to happen again. I picked the Hornets to win this series and I still see it happening, especially if they can keep Carmelo Anthony under wraps, which is not easy. Also Billups will continue to play well, but not to the tune of 8 for 9 three-pointers and 36 points. And that means others will have to step up for the Nuggets to win the second game.
The Hornets’ goal is to win one game away because they know the Nuggets have struggled on the road this year and the emotion they rely on can backfire when things are not going well for them.
David West has to become a more physical presence in protecting Chris Paul from the over excessive contact from Kenyon Martin and Dahntay Jones. I am sure the best officials will be working the rest of this series because it’s about to become a fist-fight.
San Antonio vs. Dallas
The benches will be the difference in this series and the Mavericks have a big advantage as it showed in Game 1. The Mavericks led by Jose Juan Barea, Brandon Bass and likely Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry outscored the Spurs bench 39 to 14.
The Spurs are a beaten-down bunch and the patchwork job that Gregg Popovich has done over the last few years has finally taken a toll. Without Manu Ginobili, I can’t imagine the Spurs beating the Mavericks trying to rely on just Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.
The Mavericks have too many weapons and most importantly they are playing excellent basketball. We have to admire how good Duncan and Parker are. If you told me that 36-year-old Michael Finley, Matt Bonner and Roger Mason would be starting alongside them in a playoff series, I would have said they needed to explore what vacation destination they would be headed to after Round 1.
If Popovich finds a way to win this series, he will definitely become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He already is the best smoke-and-mirrors coach I have ever seen, but if Josh Howard can stay healthy with that gimpy ankle the Spurs will need much more than that to survive a first-round ouster.
The player of the game was Erick Dampier. His 10 points and 11 rebounds were big, but his ability to keep Tim Duncan off the free throw line was huge. Duncan had only 1 attempt in 37 minutes.
Portland vs. Houston
Aaron Brooks is the real deal. People wonder why the Rockets gave Rafer Alston away. Now you know why. Brooks has replaced the offensive production of Tracy McGrady but in a more efficient way. The Blazers have no answer for Brooks and that might be the difference in this series before it’s over. He was 10 of 17 with 7 assists and 2 turnovers and I thought jumpstarted a Rocket team that all of sudden is looking like the one team that will make it extremely difficult for the Lakers before it is over.
I can’t ignore the perfect game Yao Ming sent the Blazers way in just 24 minutes of action. He did not miss a shot. 9-9 from the field and 6-6 from the line for 24 points.
The physical presence of the Rockets and the youthfulness of the Blazers jumped off the screen in Game 1 and it will be interesting to see how the Blazers react from the beating they received.
LaMarcus Aldridge will have to show up. He was a nervous puppy Saturday and I don’t expect him to be that way in Game 2, but will it be enough?
The Blazers win with energy, but the Rockets create a major problem with their half-court offense. Don’t be surprised if Nate McMillan gives seldom-used rookie Jerryd Bayless a look to try and put some pressure on Aaron Brooks on the offensive end if he gets it going again in Game 2.
I still give the Rockets the edge in this series based on experience.
More than three months into the season, I guess it’s time to update my Top 25. Here you go…
25. Al Jefferson
Jefferson bumps Shawn Marion out the last spot and gets in over players like Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams. When Shaq retires, Jefferson will probably become the game’s most dominant low-post scorer. He has a variety of moves and stays so low on his drives, it is extremely difficult for players to guard him. The Wolves have improved at a fast rate since Kevin McHale took over and Jefferson has been dominant. That should be no surprise since McHale was the best post player of his time.
24. Ray Allen
Allen should have probably been here already. He is one the best shooters ever and has played as well or better than Garnett and Pierce the first half of the season. Pick any player you want to take a game-tying jump shot to tie or win the game and Allen will be definitely at the top of the list. He replaces Tracy McGrady, who can’t stay healthy enough to warrant a spot.
23. Danny Granger
A scoring machine who plays on the ground although he can elevate on a defender when he needs to. He is the most improved player in the game and I see him getting better. Granger can play 15-plus years and be productive with his efficiency towards the game. The Pacers are very competitive despite their poor record and that is why first-time All-Star Granger moves in and Caron Butler drops out.
22. Steve Nash
No player has been asked to change his game this year more than Nash. He has been asked to slow down his tempo and creativity. I guess it is similar to buying a Ferrari and only being able to drive it 55. The reason Nash has dropped is not because of his abilities, which I think are still there. It’s his inability so far to grasp the new system and give us the production we have seen and been spoiled with the last few years. I still consider Nash the most unselfish player in the league and its best all-around shooter.
21. Brandon Roy
Moves in as Baron Davis drops out. Roy is the cousin of Manu Ginobili. He finds a way to attack the basket regardless of the defensive tactics of the opposing team. He uses his left hand better than some left-handers. He is dangerous because he has continued to stretch his range and now can run off numbers at a rapid pace. The Blazers are the most talented team in the league 1 through 12 and one way Roy can continue to move up is not becoming too shot happy and getting his teammates involved more in the early parts of the game.
20. Manu Ginobili
Moves up four spots and I am sure my Spurs readers will still not be happy. The guy is just a pure nightmare to guard and he is definitely one the toughest clutch players in the league, but I still can’t stand how he flops consistently when touched. I will still give him the benefit of the doubt and call him one the top 10 offensive players with the game on the line. And yes, I would love to have him play on my favorite team.
19. Deron Williams
Has been dealt a tough blow. He gets hurt to start the season and he loses his running mate Carlos Boozer as well. He falls eight spots by no fault of his own. I still think he is the second best point guard in the game and will be in the Top 10 at season’s end if he gets healthy. He is the only player in the league that gives Chris Paul problems on a consistent basis.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Stays at number 18 and probably deserves to be rated higher. Please name me a true center other than Howard that has played better than Shaq? The reason he stays at 18 is because although he is playing extremely well, the Suns as a team have struggled. I would like people to finally applaud Shaq for improving not only on his conditioning but his free-throw shooting as well.
17. Amare Stoudemire
Falls 10 spots and, if he does not improve his basic defensive skills, could fall further. Amare potentially could be the best power forward in the game, but has not shown an overall consistency on the defensive end to warrant staying at number 7. I admire how Amare was able to rebound from ACL surgery and regain his explosiveness, but we need to see more growth on the court with regards to the dirty parts of the game, like defense and rebounding.
16. Joe Johnson
Moves into the Top 25 as Allen Iverson drops out. He has proven that the Hawks’ run last year was no fluke and his ability to lead and become a top-notch scorer was real as well. He has the best handle (next to LeBron and Kobe) for players over 6-foot-5. He has become a triple threat and is one of the league’s best defenders as well.
15. Pau Gasol
Gets in the Top 25 and Elton Brand drops out because I am convinced that he is determined and motivated to get to the level I expected him to. I thought he would take a back seat to Andrew Bynum, but he did not. His passing ability is the reason why he scores so easily around the post. I still think he can be a better shot blocker and he will have to now with Bynum down.
14. Carmelo Anthony
Has had tough luck come All-Star time, but he is one of the best players in the league and he moves up three spots. I think he is the most versatile small forward in the game offensively with his ability to post and knock down the three-point shot. I have always wondered when he would start to show the leadership abilities that he showed at Syracuse during his NCAA championship run.
13. Chauncey Billups
Jumps nine spots and could be higher if Denver continues to play consistent basketball. Billups has undoubtedly become the best pick-up this season based on the improved play of the up-and-down Nuggets. Billups has helped them realize working hard every game and staying focused will have them in most games – and, most importantly, beat bad teams. The Nuggets are 20-1 against sub .500 teams all because of Billups’ leadership.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
Stays at number 12 and deservedly so. He is really starting to gain momentum and the Mavericks seem to be regaining their swagger back as a team. Dirk is the best shooting seven-footer ever and if he can continue to improve defensively the Mavericks will make a serious run come playoff time.
11. Paul Pierce
I think Paul is the best scoring small forward in the game not named LeBron. He scores whenever he wants and does not run come crunch time. Garnett is the Celtics’ MVP, but Pierce is their MIP (Most Important Player). He is also the biggest trash talker in the league, which I happen to think fuels his consistency.
10. Chris Bosh
Could have dropped more because he has not shown me an ability to put his team on his back and get them through tough times. He is so unorthodox offensively that he is impossible to figure out. His mid-range shot has improved big time and has shown a willingness to take the big shots. I still believe we should be seeing better leadership abilities and, if not, I can’t see him staying at this spot for long.
9. Tony Parker
I keep trying to figure out why I put Parker seven spots up from 16. I just flat out think he is a point guard with a center mentality. The guy constantly is in the Top 5 in scoring in the paint. Name me a point guard historically that dominated like that consistently. He now has improved his mid-range jump shot, which makes him virtually impossible to guard. He also has become one of the best clutch players in the league as well.
8. Yao Ming
Drops two spots but only because Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest can’t stay on the floor. Yao is the most unguardable center in the game because of his ability to shoot from 20 feet and post up without fear of a hand in his face. I would like him to get tougher, but there is not one team that would not think about trading their best player for him other than the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Cavaliers. I still say the Rockets, if healthy, can win the Western Conference.
7. Dwyane Wade
He is proving how good a player he is when in top shape. I have said consistently over the last few years that he has a bad body and will always have injuries. But with a new body and demeanor, Wade is showing why he is one of the best players we have ever seen. What he is doing with Miami is equivalent to what Chris Paul is doing in New Orleans.
6. Kevin Garnett
I would love to be a psychologist and sit in a room with KG for a day. He goes from calm to incredibly psychotic within minutes. The one thing I enjoy about KG is that he has always been like this on the floor. There is no fake in him when it comes to exuberance on the court. The Celtics have molded themselves around him and that’s why a small blip of losing games did not affect them for long.
5. Tim Duncan
Drops a spot and mainly because of one little blemish that seems to be always correctable and that is the Spurs’ slow start against teams above .500. The Spurs are 11-11 against top teams. Duncan is ageless. Just when you think he is losing a step, he makes you look bad for speaking too soon. I think he is the most professional player on and off the floor in the NBA. And its best leader.
4. Dwight Howard
Moves up four spots because he has become the second coming of Shaq. The Magic is his team and he has elevated everybody’s games – especially first-time All-Star Jameer Nelson. That appealing smile is hiding a nastiness that opposing players fear and Howard seems to get a kick out it. Just remeber one early season incident where he elbowed Suns rookie Robin Lopez and received a technical foul. As they retreated, he mockingly patted Lopez on the rear, thus sending a message… It’s not personal, but I will hurt you next time you get in my way.
3. Chris Paul
If there was a wonder how valuable Paul is, just witness the Hornets’ second half meltdown against the Blazers and the beat-down from the Chicago Bulls in the first two games of Paul’s groin injury. I have not seen a team fall to such levels since Magic Johnson missed games. Paul has re-defined the two-man game and how to guard against it. He is the toughest player in the game pound for pound.
2. Kobe Bryant
His drive to succeed is beyond reason. He is the best late-game assassin offensively I have seen since Jordan and Bird. I really have enjoyed his willingness to allow his talented teammates to excel, but with Bynum down are we ready to see the old Kobe surface again? The 61 points and 0 rebounds against the Knicks were probably a sign of things to come. I feel sorry for all the players who have to guard Kobe from here on out, but will it be for the good of the Lakers?
1. LeBron James
He continues to hold on to the No. 1 spot because he is doing the best job of carrying a team since HakeemOlajuwon carried the Rockets to back-to-back championships. Also, his follow up to Kobe scoring 61 against the Knicks was downright ridiculous. Scoring 50-plus is one thing, but getting a (quasi) triple-double to boot was the icing on the cake that has kept LB on top. I watched that game and he could have easily gotten 60 if he wanted to.
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.
Boston is the favorite until someone beats them and the Lakers are the favorite in the West, especially with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, but I don’t want to focus on teams this early. I am targeting players and where they rank coming into this season.
Here are my Top 25 players in the league and my reasons for ranking them.
25. Shawn Marion
The most versatile forward in the game. Shawn gives a team a little of everything and a lot of solid defense. Underappreciated for what he brings, he will command a ton of attention at the trade deadline if the Heat can’t reach a contract agreement with him.
24. Manu Ginobli
The guy is a winner and a competitor. Definitely the best foreign player in the league when it comes to effectiveness in clutch situations. Led the Spurs in scoring and carried them in crunch time. The most disliked player in the league on the road due to his playing style… But every team would love to have him.
23. Tracy McGrady
The key for Tracy is to stay healthy. I wonder how committed he is in the weight room. Body has not changed much during his career, which is a negative. Definitely one the best scorers in the league, but on-the-ball defense will be huge for Houston this year. He needs to back off on deferring to the three-point shot. I always felt he is a mid-range shooter and that’s what the Rockets need him to be.
22. Chauncey Billups
He has great leadership abilities, but I think he has to step it up even more. He seemed to get along with ex coach Flip Saunders, but allowed his teammates to step out of line too often last year. I think at times he’s a little too unselfish because he is the best scorer on the team with his ability to get a jump shot or drive to the basket at will. I expect more this year to validate being 21 on my list.
21. Caron Butler
Gilbert Arenas will have to take a back seat to Butler when he gets healthy. He has become the heart and soul of the Wizards. He has an ability to create shots when none seem available and his jumpshot has improved every season. A true warrior who has battled injuries the last few years.
20. Elton Brand
When healthy, he’s one the best power forwards in the game. The Sixers now have one of the best post players and screeners in the game. Brand has a lot to prove this year and eyes will be on him all season long, but he will prevail with consistent offense and sneaky shot blocking ability.
19. Baron Davis
I will not believe Davis leaving Golden State was on his own accord. The Warriors are going to suffer without Davis and the Clippers will be rewarded. He has the most underrated on-the-ball hands in the league defensively. And we all know of his ability to change the opponent’s defense when he has the ball on the perimeter or the post.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Quite honestly, in my opinion he is still the most dominating presence in the game today. He changes the game when he is on the floor and that makes him still one of the best players in basketball. People tend to talk about his commitment to staying in shape, but look at it this way… How many big men like Shaq have lasted this long? Zero. Give him credit for maintaining what he has with that massive body. Stanley Roberts, Benoit Benjamin, Oliver Miller… No, not great players like Shaq, but they could not stay in shape because of the bodies they had. He will produce some big numbers at times this year with the Suns slowed offense.
17. Carmelo Anthony
A combination of finesse and power. A tremendous offensive rebounder and finisher around the basket. Anthony would be higher if he developed better leadership abilities and trusted his teammates more often on the court. He will definitely wind up in the top twenty in scoring when his career is done, but championships will elude him if he does not continue to improve his overall package.
16. Tony Parker
Please find me someone who can stop him from getting to the basket? You will not find that person. Speed and underrated strength allows Parker to get in the paint and complete shots. Parker is a true winner and is the most dangerous penetrator in league history. His jump shot in the two-man game with Duncan has made him a true force.
15. Paul Pierce
His nickname is The Truth. Well, true it is. He has an uncanny ability to score on anyone off the dribble or in the post. He loves contact and is definitely one of the best go-to clutch players in the league. His leadership qualities really came to light during the championship run. That has elevated Pierce among the greats in Celtic history.
14. Allen Iverson
The toughest player pound for pound in the history of the league. A medical marvel that never runs out of energy. I often wondered if Iverson would last five years in the league, but I understand now why he has endured. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he decided to focus on basketball and now we understand the ignorance to pain when it comes to him. He is downright relentless and a joy to watch.
13. Steve Nash
Every time I see Steve Nash I ask God why couldn’t I have been born 10 years later. Nash is the most unselfish player in the league. He honestly dislikes taking a bunch of shots. His enjoyment comes in the form of an Amare Stoudemire or Shaq dunk or a Raja Bell three-pointer than actually scoring 20 points a night. That’s why he won back to back MVPs and that is why he is still one of the best players in the league. Nash will be counted on to use that stroke more this year because he will play off the ball more than usual. That’s a great move because he is the best shooter in the league.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
He is the best shooting big man in the league, but needs to improve individual leadership on a team in need of it. He also has to stop deferring to the three-pointer and become more assertive around the basket, which he can do with ease. (I apologize to Dirk and all Maverick fans for the oversight. He clearly belongs on the Top 25).
11. Deron Williams
Williams will do something unheard of in Utah if he continues to improve every year. Yes, I will say it… Make people stop thinking about John Stockton. The Jazz are right back at the level Stockton left when it comes to a point guard that leads and produces victories on a consistent basis. Williams is definitely the strongest point guard in the league and equally as smart when it comes to making decisions in a Jerry Sloan offensive system.
10. Dwyane Wade
Would be higher if he could just stay healthy. I mentioned a few years ago that he would not last long in the league if he continued to hit the floor 50 times a game. Wade was fantastic this summer in the Olympics and showed me that he could possibly lead the league in steals. He has really gotten himself into great shape so I expect him to get back on track to becoming the great player we all expected him to be when he led Miami to a title.
9. Chris Bosh
Reminds me of Bill Cartwright, but athletic. I would be terrified to guard him because his body seems to be going in twenty different directions when he attacks, but it works and gets him to the free-throw line consistently. Now with Jermaine O’Neal beside him, he should take off even more. He really needs to develop a go-to move inside and stop trying to incorporate a thousand moves, which I think gets him in trouble at times.
8. Dwight Howard
Can be as good as he wants to. He has the body to maneuver anywhere he wants to on the court and that is huge at this level. His rebounding ability and presence on the court alone warrant Howard this spot. Must improve free-throw shooting if he plans on moving up any further.
7. Amare Stoudemire
The most feared power forward in the game because of the embarrassment factor. He is what I call “dirt strong” and it’s deceiving because of his slender build. His shooting stroke is picture perfect and consistent. TerryPorter’s new offensive system will allow Amare to get more post-up opportunities, thus improving his trips to the charity stripe, where he hovered around 80 percent all year. He should average 25-plus points again this year and improve defensively.
6. Yao Ming
Injuries cost Yao last year, but before he left for the season he was playing like the best center in the league statistically and one must wonder if Houston would have broken the Lakers’ 33-game winning streak if he did not go down at the beginning of it. He is difficult to guard when in top shape. I expect him to have a great year leading the Rockets deep in the playoffs. Ron Artest will keep him from picking up cheap fouls with his great one-on-one defense.
5. Kevin Garnett
Kevin is the here because he finally got a chance to combine his talents and leadership with All-Stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. He is the most persistent player I have ever seen. I have never seen Garnett take a night off emotionally. If you have watched Garnett over his career, he is in constant dialogue with himself for 48 minutes and 82 games. That, my friends, is special in itself and now he is a champion.
4. Tim Duncan
This guy is pure professionalism. I would love my son to live with him for a summer. His demeanor and unselfishness with his teammates is pure gold. He could average huge numbers every year, but understands winning championships is more important. No way does Ginobili lead the team in scoring without Duncan allowing him to. Give credit to David Robinson for instilling that in Duncan.
3. Chris Paul
He is here because I personally think he is the best leader right now in the NBA. He has admitted studying Steve Nash and it is obvious when you watch his interaction with his teammates. Paul is a clone of Isiah Thomas and he showed it last year. The best pick-and-roll guard in the league.
2. Kobe Bryant
The closest in talent to Michael Jordan and in a lot of ways better than MJ. Dislike him if you want, but he is the perfect example of preparation when it comes to basketball. He is the smartest player in the league and makes the game look easy.
1. LeBron James
The best physical tools in the history of the game. He has the smarts of Magic Johnson, the brute strength and athleticism of George McGinnis and the speed of Ricky Green rolled into one massive body. I have said this since he has been in the league… If he continues to improve his jump shot, he will become the best ever.
Finally the Lakers got production from Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol in unison. They were outscored 67 to 64, but it was close enough to make a role players’ game and the Lakers won the battle 39 to 31. Boston’s top two role players, Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, are banged up and L.A. took advantage.
Backs against the wall
The Lakers are the mouse in the corner and they have no choice but to fight. And they did. They were extremely physical against a beat up Boston team and they took advantage early and late in a game they had to win. Their energy was huge again and this time despite another Boston comeback they held on in Game 5.
Garnett foul trouble
Kevin Garnett picked up quick fouls because the Lakers attacked the rim. Gasol and Odom were extremely physical with Perkins out of the lineup. That put a lot of pressure on Garnett and he picked up two quick fouls and was a non-factor the whole game because of the fear of fouling out. The Lakers got big hoops at the rim because of it.
Kobe aggressive at the start
I think this is imperative that Kobe gets going first. The Lakers cannot afford to allow Kobe to coast into any more games. The Celtics’ defense gets better as the game goes along. Hence coming back from two large deficits in Games 4 and 5 and Kobe being held to 10 points after scoring 15 in the first quarter. Those 15 points got the Lakers in a better groove than they had when they did it without him in Game 4.
Picking up 94 feet
The key to beating Boston is to make them use a lot of the shot clock getting into their offense and the Lakers have done a great job in the last two games. This takes away options offensively for the Celtics and has forced Paul Pierce to run the offense, which will tire him eventually if this series goes to a seventh game.
Star of the game: Pau Gasol took advantage of not having to battle Perkins and Garnett because of injury and foul trouble. He had his best stat line of the series: 19 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 blocks. This will have to continue if the Lakers want to win in Boston.
Turning point: Kobe Bryant’s gamble defensively on Paul Pierce was huge. If he does not execute that defensive move, Boston probably ties the game and we could be talking about the Celtics winning another banner today.
Unsung heroes:Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar share the honors in Game 5. Fisher’s 15 points helped the Lakers role players have a plus 8 in scoring and Farmar’s pressure defense on Sam Cassell and Eddie House forced Doc Rivers to use Pierce and Allen to bring the ball up the court.
Who needs to step up in Game 6?
Boston Celtics:
Leon Powe and PJ Brown have to play huge in Game 6. Kendrick Perkins takes up space and allows Garnett to guard Odom. The Celtics signed Brown for this sole purpose and he has to play big and consistent. Powe teased everyone with a huge game early in the series and has disappeared since.
Rajon Rondo has given into injury and confidence issues. The Celtics need his energy at home. That’s the difference between a Paul Pierce on a bad knee and a young player with a tender ankle. Experience means everything.
Los Angeles Lakers:
Sasha Vujacic has struggled after a great Game 3. He needs to find his rhythm and bring productivity off the bench in Game 6.
Vladimir Radmanovic is due to have a huge game. He does not get many looks, but look for him to get some shots in Game 6 if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Game 6 strategy
Boston Celtics:
- Get off to a good start in the first quarter.
- Get Rondo to attack the rim early against Kobe Bryant’s scrambling defense.
- Post Garnett early. They seem to get great looks when they do.
- Continue to squeeze Bryant and make things difficult.
Los Angeles Lakers:
- They will look to speed the game up with Boston looking like the tired team.
- They must get some production from Radmanovic and will look to maybe work.
- Paul Pierce early on the defensive end.
- Kobe coming out ultra aggressive to settle the young Lakers.
- Attack Garnett especially if Perkins is out for Game 6.
Prediction
It’s hard to fathom the Lakers pulling off two wins in Boston, but they can definitely get Game 6 if they get off to the kind of start they have in the last two games. Bryant still has not had the type of game megastars
have to secure a huge win and he is definitely due. The Celtics know that they need to finish this off now or they face the challenge of having to win a Game 7 with a tired, beat up team.
I expect the energy to be ferocious with the hyped crowd and if the Celtics keep it close in the first quarter, they will win by double digits.
Defense played a big part in the Lakers’ Game 3 win. I have said all along that if the Lakers could negate one of the Big Three, they would have success. Well, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett shot a combined 8 for 35 and to make matters worse got to the free throw line five times. The Lakers held the Celtics to 35 percent shooting and although Boston scored more baskets in the paint they missed a ton of shots outside the paint. Garnett drifted further and further away from the basket with each shot attempt. Phil Jackson’s decision to let Kobe Bryant roam off of Rondo effectively caused Boston’s offense to sputter all night long.
Sasha steps up with 20 points
Sasha Vujacic was huge with his 7 for 10 shooting. If he doesn’t step up, the Lakers would be looking at a 0-3 deficit this morning. Jordan Farmar gave a solid 20 minutes, but other than that the Lakers’ most publicized bench has been all hype and no show in the first three games. Sasha hit timely shots all night long and proved to be enough with Kobe being Kobe
MVP took over
Kobe was expected to be aggressive from the start and he did not disappoint. He took great shots all night long and got to the line 18 times. He also had seven rebounds which helped the Lakers fight off a team that was bricking shots from everywhere. He must have thought it was his birthday when Doc Rivers decided to stop trapping him late in the fourth quarter and left Ray Allen on an island with him where there is only one survivor – Kobe. That was caused by Vujacic nailing a three, but Doc should have continued to trap Kobe.
Plus 14 on the free throw line
This was big for two reasons:
1. It helped ease the pain of Boston’s dominance in the first two games.
2. The Celtics tied the Lakers on field goals made and were a plus 14 in field goal attempts. The plus 6 free throws made was the difference in the game.
Rondo sprains ankle
Although Rondo was a liability because Kobe was creating havoc by guarding him, the Celtics struggled down the stretch to get into their offense and find good shot attempts.
Star of the game: Kobe was dominant from the start and put pressure on the Celtics defense the whole game. He didn’t get to the rim a lot, but he got there enough to solidify a great effort from the free throw line. He took great shots the whole game and his help defense disrupted Paul Pierce’s ability to attack the rim and that was the deciding factor.
Turning point: Boston was trailing 78-76 with 1:53 remaining in the game. Vujacic made a three-point shot to put the Lakers up five points. This turned the tide because Doc Rivers decided to guard Kobe with only Ray Allen and he made the final two baskets to win the game.
Unsung hero: The Lakers’ bench was in trouble but Vujacic came through when it was needed most and he became the Leon Powe of L.A. This is how this series will be decided and the Lakers will need another effort from Sasha in Game 4.
Who needs to step up?
Boston Celtics:
Sam Cassell or Eddie House, especially if Rajon Rondo’s ankle will hamper him in Game 4.
Paul Pierce cannot afford another mail-it-in effort in Game 4 and Kevin Garnett has to stop thinking he is only a jump shooter and attack Pau Gasol.
Los Angeles Lakers:
Listen, I have said it since the trade and I will continue to say it… Pau Gasol is highly skilled, but soft as two wet pancakes. He is withering away from the constant beat down of the playoffs and he better find a way to step up or the Celtics will end this series in Los Angeles.
Someone once asked me if I had to pick a player that had the perfect size, height and agility in the league, who would that player be. I immediately said Lamar Odom. Lamar still has not figured out he could be a defender’s worst nightmare. He thinks too much and gets himself out of sorts – or as Phil Jackson said, “looking confused.” The Lakers will not win four games without Odom playing well. That has to be a huge concern right now.
Game 4 strategy
Los Angeles Lakers:
- Jackson realizes he was extremely lucky in Game 3. He cannot count on Vujacic to have another great game against the Celtics’ stingy defense. He has to get Gasol and Odom more attempts.
- Continue to apply pressure to Paul Pierc,e who could be affected by the bad knee.
- Pressure the Boston guards 94 feet, especially Cassell and Eddie House.
- Get off to a good start and make Boston climb uphill.
Boston Celtics:
- Convince Garnett his Jumper is AWOL and to attack the rim.
- Counter Kobe’s roaming defensively off of Rondo
- Keep Kobe out the paint because it got them in foul trouble and got Kobe to the line 18 times.
- Continue to be physical with Odom and Gasol.
Prediction
I do not expect Paul Pierce to have another terrible game. The Lakers barely beat the Celtics when they shot 35 percent. The Lakers’ bench has been outplayed the first three games as a whole and I expect it to continue. Boston will recover and win Game 4, but it will be a barn-burner!
Why did Boston go up 2-0 in the series? Here are the keys…
Celtics hold the Lakers to 61 points in first three quarters
The Celtics are playing lock-down defense on every player in a Lakers uniform. I thought going into this series that the pressure perimeter defense would work against the young Lakers and it has in the first two
games. The Lakers are a good shooting team, but the Celtics are keeping them out of big runs with one exception – the fourth quarter. The Celtics run at every shooter with great rotation. So even a head fake cannot give them an avenue to get layups or attack the basket and draw fouls. There is a serious reason why this team won 66 games and critics who chose the Lakers to win this series better take notice. They are so good I saw them switch four players off on Kobe Bryant on one play in the fourth quarter. They are determined to force the Lakers’ others to beat them and so far the plan has worked.
Leon Powe huge off the bench
Historically the team that wins a championship has a player that gives them a great game when least expected. Powe was the guy in Game 2, scoring 21 points. Powe sent a message to every young player in America and that is “Always be ready to play.” He was huge with his scoring and ability to get the Lakers in foul trouble. Powe shot more free throws in 15 minutes (13) than the entire Lakers team (10).
Consistent Big Three
Another 60-plus combined effort is huge by Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Pierce was the best player on the floor, especially early when the Lakers where trying to get a big lead. Allen, who struggled in the Eastern playoffs, has regained his touch and confidence. He has also made Kobe work extremely hard for every basket. Garnett has effectively opened up the middle for uncontested drives with his shooting. If this continues, the Lakers will find it hard pressed to win one game.
31 assists on 36 baskets
Wow! Although Doc Rivers can’t be happy with the Celtics meltdown in the fourth quarter, he has to be ecstatic with the ball movement and unselfish play spearheaded by Rajon Rondo, who had 16 assists.
Star of the game: Leon Powe. Leon Powe was spectacular in 15 minutes. He changed the flow of the game and gave the Celtics’ bench another victory over the more touted Lakers’ bench coming into this series. This despite not even knowing if Doc Rivers will use him or Big Baby Davis from game to game. You want to cheer for Powe, who fought odds beyond basketball to put himself into this position. A wonderful accomplishment for a young man who grew up in foster homes with his siblings when their home burned to the ground and just one parent to care for them. Hooray for Leon Powe!
Turning point: Leon Powe entered the game with the score 22-21 with 11:21 left in the second quarter. The physicality of the game increased and the Lakers seemed to wither under the pressure. With Powe getting to the line and putting pressure on the Lakers frontline, the lead grew to double figures and the Lakers were climbing up hill all night long.
Unsung hero: PJ Brown has become the huge pickup the Celtics thought he was. His defense on Pau Gasol has been solid and has allowed Garnett to keep Lamar Odom under control.
Who needs to step up? I am not picking on Lamar Odom, but he’d better step up quickly or he will be fodder for every critic with a pen. Odom must know now what Scottie Pippen felt like playing next to Michael Jordan. The difference between the two is Scottie figured it out and performed. Odom seems to be headed in reverse.
Gasol can’t be left out. He shot one free throw in Game 2. He is as soft as they come, but showed some heart with a few strong moves. The Lakers need more.
Game 3 strategy
Boston Celtics:
- Doc Rivers will treat this game like a Game 7. He knows if his team goes up 3-0 it’s over, so expect a hungry Celtic team for game 3
- The Celtics have realized that the Lakers cannot beat them if their bench matches the Lakers.
- They must continue to make the Lakers shoot jumpshots. They had a 38 to 10 free throw advantage in Game 2.
- Run the offense through Paul Pierce. The Lakers have no one who can guard him except Kobe and Phil Jackson would be making a huge mistake if he tried that matchup early in Game 3.
Los Angeles Lakers:
- Get Odom some post-ups and isolations early
- Double Paul Pierce early and often and live with Allen and Garnett taking jumpshots.
- Find a way to make it a fast game, although Rondo has been great with his pace.
- Hit somebody in the mouth and play Ronny Turiaf more minutes, especially since Luke Walton has been AWOL.
- Kobe needs to take 30-plus shots if that’s what it will take.
Prediction
You would expect the Lakers to pick it up at home, but it doesn’t matter where you play if you don’t fight. The Celtics have slapped them around despite a fourth quarter meltdown in Game 2. I honestly think the Celtics will take more from that fourth quarter than the Lakers because they won Game 2 and will go into Los Angeles and win Game 3. No way I would be thinking this could happen before the series started, but as I stated in my preview article, the Lakers are a soft unit and the Celtics are sensing it and will go up 3-0 in the series.
Celtics’ Big Three scored 65 points and Kobe shoots 9 for 26
When the Celtics’ Big three is scoring as a group it will be difficult for the Lakers to win one game. The Lakers had Paul Pierce under control until he caught fire. When all three are playing well, it puts tremendous pressure on the Lakers’ defense to scramble – which will allow players like Rajon Rondo, Sam Cassell and James Posey to have wide open looks.
The Celtics’ bench outscored the Lakers’ bench 17 to 15
The Lakers’ bench has been touted as a big advantage, but the Celtics’ bench won the first battle. The factor I noted in my series’ preview article was the Lakers bench was good but young – and it showed big time Thursday. Luke Walton looked lost and struggled all night. And he has Finals experience!
Boston dominated the glass 46 to 33
The Lakers are not a physical team and the Celtics abused them on the glass. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will have to average close to 10 rebounds per game in order to negate the Celtics on the glass.
The Celtics held the Lakers to 41 percent from the field
The Celtics did a great job of packing in their defense and scrambling to the shooters. Derek Fisher got loose early, but he was the only consistent threat. Kobe will definitely shoot better than 9 for 26, but he needs help from Fisher, Sasha Vujacic and Vladimir Radmanovic to open the paint so he can attack the basket.
Boston shot 35 free throws and Kobe got to the line only six times
The Celtics’ plan is to keep Kobe off the free-throw line and it worked in Game 1. That allowed the Celtics to have a +7 advantage.
Star of game: Rajon Rondo. His 15 point, 7 assist and 5 rebound night was huge. He also put pressure on the Lakers in that big third quarter, when he found Pierce for two three-point shots.
Turning point: Paul Pierce finding his rhythm early in the third and then continuing it when he returned to the court after suffering a sprained knee.
Unsung hero:PJ Brown was huge with his defense and rebounding. He had a big block on Odom late in the game and seemed to grab every big rebound down the stretch.
Who needs to step up? Lamar Odom has to look to score more, especially when Kendrick Perkins and Brown are guarding him. Phil Jackson benched him late because he needed shooters on the floor or was that a message to get aggressive? Perkins looked lost and nervous. He cannot put the pressure on PJ Brown to continue to have big games. The Celtics need more production in Game 2.
Game 2 strategy
Boston Celtics:
- Continue to keep the ball in the hands of the Big Three early, especially Garnett.
- Get Pierce to move the ball quicker out of the double teams.
- Encourage Garnett to attack the rim more, especially against Gasol.
- Encourage Rondo, Perkins and Brown to be ready and shoot open shots.
- Continue to squeeze Kobe and keep him out of the paint. Kobe only scored one bucket in the paint.
- Run the Lakers shooters off the three-point line.
Los Angeles Lakers:
- Find a way to get inside that Celtic defense for easy scores.
- Get Lamar Odom involved early offensively.
- Negate one of the Big Three on the offensive end.
- Look for Kobe to start the game extremely aggressive offensively.
- Try to get Fisher, Vujacic and Radmanovic some jump shots to force the Celtics to extend that defense.
- Be extremely physical with Garnett and a sore Paul Pierce.
Prediction
The Lakers have shown a great ability to rebound from tough losses all year, but the Celtics are great at home and I see this series going 2-0 headed back to Los Angeles.
The Finals are here and the league could not be happier. The Celtics vs. Lakers series brings back so many memories of the best era of basketball. Bird against Magic, Kareem battling Parish, McHale fighting the athleticism of James Worthy, Michael Cooper showing what defense is all about, Dennis Johnson doing his Oscar Robertson imitation, Pat Riley wearing his Italian suits, etc, etc…
Every year these teams met, they where the best teams in the regular season and this year is no different.
The Celtics and the Lakers are the best and now they face off against each other just like in the 80s.
The characters are different but if this Finals go as expected and these two teams stay fully equipped and injury free over the next few years, they could be facing each other a few more times in the future.
This series gives us two of the best one-on-one players in the league in Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce, the two most versatile seven-foot players in Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol and most importantly the two most storied franchises in all of sports.
Do I have a prediction? Yes. But first I will give six reasons why each team could win the series.
LAKERS WIN IF…
1. Kobe Bryant dominates the series with his scoring and defense. Boston’s defense is geared toward smothering star players and taking the ball out of their hands. But if Kobe is still scoring regardless, the Celtics are in serious trouble.
2. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol keep Kendrick Perkins on the bench and forces Doc Rivers to play James Posey, which then allows Phil Jackson to isolate and post Odom when Garnett has to guard Gasol. Odom is the Lakers’ key player in this series and Jackson will focus on taking advantage of this matchup. PJ Brown will give a solid few minutes, but it still helps the Lakers with a very good rebounder like Perkins on the bench.
3. Pau Gasol matches the production of Garnett, which would be devastating for Boston. The Lakers are a great offensive team and Gasol equaling Garnett would give them a tremendous advantage. The Poodle will have to play like a Doberman against the hyper Garnett.
4. Kobe, Derek Fisher and Sasha Vujacic continue to keep Ray Allen inconsistent. The key is to take away one of the Big Three and Allen seems to be the most vulnerable coming into the series.
5. The Lakers bench, led by Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic, continue to dominate in the middle quarters when Kobe is resting. Phil Jackson is counting on this unit to win the plus-minus against Boston’s bench, which has been up and down.
6. They score over 100 a game. If that happens, the Celtics will go away quickly. The Lakers will try and force tempo and if that happens this series will be over in a hurry.
CELTICS WIN IF…
1. Kevin Garnett spends equal time in the post as he does on the perimeter and averages 20 or better for the series. We know his defense will be solid, but the Celtics need his interior scoring and if he gives it to them the Celtics will have success in this series.
2. Paul Pierce forces Phil Jackson to defend him with Kobe. Jackson will try every avenue to keep Kobe away from the physical Pierce. But if he is having his way with Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Walton, Jackson will have no choice and that would spell trouble for the Lakers. Pierce draws fouls better than any small forward in the league.
3. Ray Allen, quite frankly, becomes Ray Allen. Allen showed some signs in the latter stages of the Pistons series and if he catches fire the Lakers are in deep trouble. The Lakers have one player that can virtually carry a team for a game. The Celtics have three and Allen is due.
4. Kendrick Perkins finds a way to stay on the floor and dominates the glass, especially on the offensive end. This would negate the Lakers getting easy transition baskets and most importantly slow down the pace of the game. The Lakers will give Perkins open shots and he has to be ready to knock them down.
5. Rajon Rondo continues to grow and be steady on the offensive end. He will definitely give Derek Fisher problems with his defensive pressure, but he must make the Lakers pay when they use Fisher to roam and provide help defense.
6. Doc Rivers finally relents and gives Eddie House some solid minutes. The Celtics need consistent scoring against the Lakers. House can change the flow of the game with his shooting. Rivers was afraid to use him against the defensive pressure of Lindsey Hunter and the Pistons, but neither Farmar nor Fisher should bother House in this series to the extent Hunter did.
PREDICTION
I really like both teams and I am sure whichever way I go will fuel some irate comments, but that’s why I write the blog.
I disagree with the comment “Defense wins championships” because the Lakers won a bunch with Magic and they were known for offense. Plus it is a Catch 22 comment. Why? Because good balanced offense gives you a solid defense. It is all about floor balance and teammates knowing when a shot is going up and not being surprised and out of position to retreat defensively. Yes, defense wins. But offense sets the table, so both should be praised.
Boston comes into this series as a great defensive team and the Lakers are getting high praise for their smooth productive offense. Yet all these prognosticators that preach defense are going with the offensive team. Go figure!
I have always believed that veterans win in this league because when times get tough they dig out and produce when needed. Also veterans are hungrier because the window is closing and they see the end. Young players think it will happen again and again, which makes them close their ears to advice to the contrary.
My prediction is the Lakers will succumb to inexperience and struggle, thus forcing Kobe to try and take on too much responsibility. Radmanovic, Farmar, Gasol, Vujacic and Ronny Turiaf (all key players for the Lakers) will struggle against the pressure of the Finals and the Celtics’ defense.
The Celtics have three players that can carry the load of the inexperience of Perkins and Rondo. My key player for the series will be James Posey. He has experience with the Finals as a Miami Heat player, he is a great defender and he has been deadly with his three-point shooting in the playoffs.
The Celtics will win in six games and hang another banner in the Garden.
The NBA has probably enjoyed its finest season since Magic, Bird and a young Air Jordan were dominating the league and bringing new fans by the day. I have to admit that we are starting to see players littered around the league that finally get it. What is it? Well, it is the ability to play the game at a fundamental level the game deserves. We are seeing players that actually care about their field goal percentage, teammates, winning and respecting opponents with honest and kind comments.
This is what has been missing. This is what the old school players have been criticizing. Finally we have a product again that allows you to sit down and watch a game and appreciate the way the players compete and respect the game.
Just take a look at the MVP candidates. How can you choose between Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James? All of those guys play the right way. All of them make their teammates better and they compete with effort and passion every night.
If you have not gotten my drift, just look at how competitive the Western Conference has been all year and although the East was not up to par prove to me that Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington and Toronto are not worth watching and rooting for against the higher seeds.
This was the best season I have witnessed in a long time and I can’t wait for the postseason to get started. One warning: There will be no sweeps in the first round and we will have three lower seeds win.
Here are my picks for Round 1.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics have been the best team all year in regards to consistency. I have always said individual defensive accolades are overrated. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen just proved my theory, because they have become defensive stalwarts in the tight team defense of the Celtics. It will be hard for the Hawks to win this series just based on the rapid fire offense of the Big Three. Plus Kevin Garnett is on a mission. But Celtics beware if you think this is a cakewalk.
The Hawks match up with you quite nicely with the likes of Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith. I did not even mention one of the best clutch playoff performers in Mike Bibby. The Hawks have the firepower to win two games in this series and they will.
Projection: Celtics in six.
Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Pistons have been built for the playoffs for a long time and they always seem to use it to their advantage – except for last year against Cleveland. The key is Rasheed Wallace. The question is, will he or won’t he show up early in this series? If he does, the Sixers have no chance. But if he resorts to shooting 10 three-point shots a game… Well, this first-round series will venture to six games.
The Sixers are the most exciting team on the East Coast. They do it with speed and unselfishness and all the credit is pointed towards Andre Miller and head coach Maurice Cheeks. The play of youngsters Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young will be crucial for the Sixers in this series.
Projection: Pistons in five.
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
The Magic were one of the most exciting teams before the All-Star break and then became very boring right after. Howard can dominate and should in this series. Hedo Turkoglu has become the go-to star and has not disappointed.
The Raptors have not lived up to expectations and injuries played a part. Chris Bosh better bring it big time if the Raptors want to upset the third seed. Key player in series is TJ Ford. He is virtually unstoppable when on a roll.
Projection: Magic in five.
Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
This will be the most exciting series in the East. The Cavaliers defense better be air-tight, because if not they are in serious trouble. Also, LeBron will need some offensive help from at least two other Cavaliers – namely Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson.
The Wizards, if healthy, might be the most dangerous offensive team in the league. If you don’t believe me, then go ask Boston. Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are a load and they will exploit Cleveland in this series and finally beat LeBron.
Projection: Wizards in six.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
On paper, this series looks like it could be very competitive. But here is the problem: Denver doesn’t play good team defense. That is a serious problem when you face those 200 years of coaching experience on that Laker bench. The trio of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will score in bunches and then allow role players like Derek Fisher to flourish with wide open shots.
The Nuggets have a chance in this series if they keep defensive focus for 24 seconds and Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony realize that they will not beat the Lakers by themselves. The Nuggets have some serious fire power in JR Smith, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin if allowed to play. They can’t just stand and watch. I say the Nuggets will scare the Lakers and win two at home.
Projection: Lakers in six.
New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Hornets are America’s team. They play great team basketball and have supreme confidence. Chris Paul is downright sick. He is the single reason why this team is even on the map right now. I love David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler, but the credit all falls in the lap of Paul and head coach Byron Scott. The Hornets have one negative and it will cost them… That is experience. Players that have never been to the playoffs think the experience talk is overrated, but the young Hornets will find out fast that it is not.
The Mavericks are still trying to find themselves since the Jason Kidd trade. They couldn’t have picked a better opponent to face. The experience of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Josh Howard will be too much. They will still need some stellar defense and rebounding from Erick Dampier, but I think they will find a way to upset the Hornets and move on to the second round. I personally will be rooting for the Hornets to prove me wrong.
Projection: Mavericks in six.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Here we go again! The Spurs are still the champion and the Suns understand that champions never beat themselves. The Spurs have fought hard through another long season and are now trying to conjure up some energy to make another I-told-you-so run to the championship. The problem the Spurs face is that historically they have never won back-to-back. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will give the Suns fits as usual, but would that be enough to get it done?
The Suns are hungry, mad and determined to finally climb the Spur Mountain. They will get it done if Amare Stoudemire and Shaq stay out of foul trouble early and attack Duncan consistently to wear him down. Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw will have to score close to double figures off the bench thus negating Ginobili’s production. Steve Nash will have a great series and I think he will be the difference in the Suns finally eliminating the Spurs.
Projection: Suns in six.
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Simple fact the Jazz don’t lose at home, so the Rockets better take care of home business against a terrible road team with a great overall record. The Rockets have bulletin-board material because they saw the Jazz virtually give up home court advantage to play them and avoid the Spurs and Suns. Tracy McGrady has to be lights out the entire series and the Rockets must dominate the offensive glass for second opportunities. Luis Scola will be the key to the series defending Carlos Boozer.
The Jazz should have mailed in their final game with the Spurs. They wanted the Rockets and they got them. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are the keys and do it extremely well every night. The Jazz will steal one game in Houston and win all three at home.
Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
Cleveland vs. Detroit
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.
Why the Lakers won Game 5? Here’s why…
The NBA has probably enjoyed its finest season since Magic, Bird and a young Air Jordan were dominating the league and bringing new fans by the day. I have to admit that we are starting to see players littered around the league that finally get it. What is it? Well, it is the ability to play the game at a fundamental level the game deserves. We are seeing players that actually care about their field goal percentage, teammates, winning and respecting opponents with honest and kind comments.