Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
This will definitely be a competitive year and I expect this list to change come mid-season…
25. Ray Allen (24)
Ray had a very good year. He struggled at times in the playoffs, but in his defense he is better running off screens than spotting up. He had to stand a lot during the playoffs and he struggled at times because of it. Allen shot 4 percentage points above his career field-goal average last year. He averaged 18 points, shot 40 percent from behind the arc and nailed 92 percent of his free throws. Allen should flourish even more with Kevin Garnett back and the equally unselfish Rasheed Wallace on board.
24. Devin Harris
Speed kills and Harris has it. He jumps in at 24 and should be here to stay. Harris can get to the basket with the best of them and make his free throws at an 82 percent clip. Played only 69 games and shot a dismal 43 percent from the field, but I love his upside and I think he will flourish on a Nets team that will struggle all season. If Harris is not a Top 20 player this season, I will be disappointed.
23. Shaquille O’Neal (18)
Shaq had a great season last year in Phoenix although the Suns failed to advance to the playoffs. He was in tremendous shape and proved he can still flourish when in that condition. It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate it knowing the offense will not run through him like it did last year. I know he has his limitations on defense, but the Cavaliers have excellent perimeter defenders and his job will be much simpler than it was last year. LeBron will get him easy baskets, but the prevailing question is… Can he deal with getting out of King James’ way a majority of the time? That will be an issue on the court and in the locker room.
22. Danny Granger (23)
Granger has an old-school game in a new-school body. Takes what the defense gives him and makes you pay. 25 points per game and 87 from the line will give the Pacers a chance every night. Only played in 67 games last year and still put up crazy numbers. I would like to see his passing and defense improve before he moves into consistent All-Star category, but the Pacers have a player that will remind them of the scoring Reggie Miller left with.
21. Al Jefferson (25)
The best low-post ability in the game, when he is rolling he is virtually unguardable. The injury slowed him up, but it will not affect him because he plays below the rim. I believe he will become a better player because he will need to be more cerebral coming back from a season-ending injury. The Wolves unfortunately will still be bad for the next few years, but if Jefferson continues to grow as a player they will indeed have their cornerstone.
20. Kevin Durant
All I can say is, “League, watch out.” This young man can play and got better at a rapid pace with every game last year. George Gervin reincarnated with crazy range. At 20 years old, he poured in 25 points a game, shot 48 percent and grabbed almost 7 rebounds. He will be an All-Star the rest of his career and will flirt with the All-NBA team at season’s end. The one surprising aspect of his game that also has gotten much better is his defense. He should study film of ex NBA player Derrick McKey because he could become that type of defender before it’s over. The one area he needs to continue to grow in is leadership. He has a tendency to wander into his own world and forget about his teammates. He will move up on this list by mid-season and that’s a guarantee.
19. Steve Nash (22)
I have no idea why Nash has moved up three spots, but I suspect with the way the Suns will play again this year he will be higher come mid-season. For the third straight year he shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line (a record). All due respect to Ray Allen, but Steve Nash is by far the best shooter in the game and has been for the last six years. Nash also still found time to average 9.7 assists a game. He is the consummate professional and a teammate’s dream because he has no prejudice when he steps on the court. If you get open, you get the ball.
18. Joe Johnson (16)
Johnson, a personal favorite of mine, has probably the best handle for his size next to LeBron and Kobe. I would definitely like to see him improve his low-post game because with his passing ability he would destroy opposing defenses with the shooters he has at his disposal. Numbers tend to go down in the playoffs, which has to concern both Joe and Mike Woodson. He averaged 5 fewer points in the playoffs and if the Hawks are to get to the semifinals again this year, he has to be dynamic in the second season. Six assists a game will go up with the addition of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith.
17. Chauncey Billups (13)
The Denver Nuggets should have given him a huge bonus, because he made them a ton of extra money that they would not have seen had they stayed put. He automatically settled them down and made them think about Team instead of I. Billups is one of the best leaders in the game and definitely one of its best clutch players. He averaged 20 points in the postseason, but ended with a whimper against the Lakers – which probably had him working out extra hard this offseason. He needs to improve his shooting when they run him off the three-point line. He shot a dismal 41 percent from the field. I expect Billups numbers to continue to go down, thus allowing players like JR Smith to take more of the load along with Carmelo Anthony.
16. Paul Pierce (11)
They call him The Truth and he has proven up to the label for 11 seasons. Pierce is definitely the go-to scorer on the Celtics and one of the best clutch players in the league, especially in the playoffs. He has been the rock for this organization and I expect him to become one of the few players to start and finish his career with the same team. The one thing I would love to see is better conditioning. There is a part of me that always feels like Pierce has never been in the type of shape that could make him have a super season instead of the ho-hum normal 20 points per game. I guess that’s just a part of me that wants to see more because he is one of my favorite people and players in the league. Dropping him to 16th was more an age thing than production, but I expect him to explode again this season with the addition of Rasheed Wallace.
15. Brandon Roy (21)
Roy is a taller version Tony Parker. He has an uncanny ability to get to the basket despite defenses gearing up against him. He has very good all-around ability, but I cringe at how he squeezes the ball for much of the shot clock. It will be interesting to see if Andre Miller can keep the ball long enough to at least run the offense before Roy runs to it and goes one-on-one. I think that selfish part of his skills needs to change early in the game to allow teammates to gain a flow. He will find out that he would become much more potent, like Kobe has found out, when he plays more of a decoy early and becomes the assassin later. I anticipate Miller having a calming influence, allowing him to flow to a much better season. That’s why I moved him up six spots. He should improve on that 48 percent percentage and score in the 23-24 range, but be fresh in the fourth quarter.
14. Chris Bosh (10)
It’s time for Chris Bosh to show that he can put a team on his back or ask management to bring in a veteran star to help him along. Bosh averaged 22 points, but shot a disappointing 48 percent. He has to develop a better low-post game and help his team get better high-percentage shots. Every year he seems to be floating further and further away from the basket. He took 49 three-point shots last year and made 12. Bosh is more of a finesse player, but the idea of improving his three-point game is the wrong road to travel. Let’s hope he has beefed up somewhat and is willing to allow his teammates to take care of the outside game. His role is to be dominant in the paint. Most importantly, I want Bosh to make Shaq change the statement he made about him last year. He called Bosh the RuPaul of big men. Bosh did not deserve that description. Let’s see if he can make Shaq look like the old man of centers.
13. Deron Williams (19)
When healthy Williams, Chris Paul and Tony Parker are the best all-around point guards at this juncture. I expect Williams to move into the Top 10 after this season if he puts in a full healthy year. He is the strongest point guard in the league and one of the best at the pick-and-roll. He will never show his true offensive skills because the Jerry Sloan system will not allow it, but his all-around abilities will propel the Jazz towards another solid season. His numbers normally escalate during the playoffs, which tells us about the toughness and confidence he possesses.
12. Amare Stoudemire (17)
How can you go from 17 to 12 after missing the last 29 games with a dangerous eye injury? Two reasons come to mind… 1. When he came back from a micro fracture surgery, we wrote him off and he became All-NBA. 2. The Suns are going back to their 7 Seconds or Less offense and Amare will be playing center. Those two reasons along with the tremendous shape he has kept his body in will propel him back up the ladder. There is no player in the NBA at Amare’s size with the quickness and explosiveness that he possesses. I expect him to average 27 to 30 points a game and help Phoenix secure a bottom playoff position this season. Also remember this is his free agent year, so expect him to be highly motivated.
11. Carmelo Anthony (14)
Anthony is the most versatile offensive forward in the game. He is listed at 230 pounds, but don’t believe that number. Anthony is packing on 240-plus and still moves like a gazelle. He can score anywhere on the floor. I don’t like his shot selection and that is why he shot 44 percent last year, but don’t get it twisted because he is a matchup nightmare. He is the best offensive rebounder in the league playing small forward when he commits himself. His post-up ability brings double teams and when he is focused, he is a pretty good defender. The Nuggets just need more leadership from him and more consistency on the offensive end every night. He is their most talented player, but he is not their best player because of these inefficiencies. I am looking for Carmelo to put it all together this season and elevate his game all-around, which would mean the Nuggets could have a return engagement with the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.
10. Pau Gasol (15)
Ok, I was wrong! I was not a big fan of the player I called the Poodle during the Celtic-Lakers Finals last year. He moves up five spots because he is the best fundamentally sound seven-footer in the league next to Tim Duncan. Gasol’s footwork is textbook and he has a great left hand that makes him virtually impossible to guard one-on-one. He showed me everything he had to in last year’s playoffs. He showed toughness, savvy, leadership and offensive consistency even when he did not touch the ball for minutes at a time. Kobe won without Shaq, but he would not have sniffed the Finals without Gasol. So I will retire the Poodle nickname and name him The Machine. The Lakers team already had that nickname for a player, but Sasha Vujacic doesn’t deserve it.
9. Tony Parker (9)
How can you be ranked number 9 and still be underrated? Will someone show me a player that can keep Parker out of the paint? Can anyone show me who finishes in traffic over bigger players more consistently at his size? I simply marvel at how good he has become in the pick-and-roll offense. There was once a time when teams would go under and dare him to shoot, but he has become a 50 percent shooter with an improved mid-range game. That improved skill will allow him to score 22 ppg consistently against anyone. Parker never gets the credit he deserves because of the greatness of Duncan, but he is the toughest player on the Spurs pound for pound without a doubt. This season might become his best because it seems as if Duncan has taken a back seat to the offensive prowess of Parker and seems content to let him shine. And shine he will.
8. Kevin Garnett (6)
When I first met Kevin Garnett, he took off his hat and said, “It’s an honor to meet you.” When I saw Garnett last year, he repeated that. Garnett is one the best leaders in sports and surprisingly always has been. I have even been guilty of being critical of his unselfishness. We will never be able to change that and I am so glad we as fans were not successful in doing so. He has been pass-first since he came into the league. He has at times deferred to players who were simple role players and at the same time ignored our bantering to shoot more. We watched him last year sit next to sweaty players in a custom-made suit on the Boston bench while he was injured. He did not isolate himself at the end of the bench. He was in the game even though he could not play and I noticed and respected him immensely for that. Who would not want to play with a superstar like him? He made Glen Davis cry last year during a game, but people don’t get fooled on why Davis was crying? I bet he cried because he was dressed down by a player that he respects to the highest level and he did not want to disappoint him. Garnett will come back with a vengeance and I expect the Celtics to return to championship form playing with the Big Ticket.
7. Dirk Nowitzki (12)
I made a mistake last season and left him off my Top 25. I corrected it right away and I think I made another mistake putting Dirk at number 12. Which brings me to the present. I am wondering if he can eventually move into the top 5. There will never be another Larry Bird. But if he isn’t close, who will? Dirk can flat out play and he works on his game. People are quick to label him soft, but tell me who gets beat up more than him and he still lights you up. I have always stood by the simple fact that great individual defense will never stop great individual offense consistently. I think Dirk proved that last year against Denver when Kenyon Martin got toasted all series long trying to guard him. The one area he needs to improve in, and it has gotten better, is his leadership. He has the talent around him to win the West, but it’s going to take a more rounded effort from him this season. I think he can pull it off. Watch out for the improved Mavericks and the best jump-shooting seven-footer in NBA history.
6. Chris Paul (3)
I love Paul. He is one of my favorite players to watch and for one reason. His leadership is off the charts and I enjoy how he directs and takes over a game with a scowl that has much bigger players paying attention. When he retires, he will have a pick of any coaching job available because of his ability to communicate and keep players in line. It was just too bad he really could not keep a healthy team on the floor last year. Losing Janero Pargo to a Greek team did not help. Paul did not fare well in the Hornets playoff loss to Denver and was embarrassed and shut down in their last two losses. I expect him to come back with a vengeance and play like a potential MVP candidate this season. His numbers offensively will probably go up unless Peja Stojakovic and David West stay healthy and perform up to expectations. If they don’t, Paul might do a Nate Archibald offensive impersonation this season and score over 25 ppg.
5. Tim Duncan (5)
Duncan is the best leader in the game and its best power forward. I can’t say enough about what a consummate professional Timmy is. Have you ever seen him take a night off? Have you ever seen him take bad shots? Have you ever seen him not be excited for his teammates? I watched David Robinson’s induction the other night and when they put the camera on Duncan, it was obvious where he got the immediate knowledge and unselfish nature from. Robinson stepped aside for Duncan and Duncan has been allowing his teammates to succeed as well with his unselfish nature. I expect Duncan to bounce back from the nagging injuries he experienced last year and help San Antonio challenge the Lakers for the Western Conference crown this year. His all-around numbers will go up, but the one category that could get them back to the Finals will be in the assists column. He averaged 3.5 last year and with the offense flowing through him that will get better.
4. Dwyane Wade (7)
Wade moves up three spots and I am sure in some fan’s eyes it was not enough. I can’t argue with that complaint. Wade is a scoring marvel. When he came into the league, he was all about getting to the basket and flying over the rim. But now he can score from anywhere with regularity. He shot almost 50 percent last year while leading the league in scoring at 30 ppg. He also impressed me by playing in 79 games, which were about 12 games over his average. The obvious reason was that Wade came into the season in great shape and he parlayed it into a career year. The Heat would have won 25 games without him and that’s why he was considered highly for MVP. Leadership will be tested this year again with so many young players and no significant additions. But one thing is for sure: South Beach belongs to Flash!
3. Dwight Howard (4)
I have Howard above Dwyane Wade for one simple reason: He changes the way teams have to defend in the paint. The second chance factor in the NBA is huge. If you give teams second and third chances to score on a consistent basis, your team will lose. Especially if it is Orlando with its plethora of scorers. Howard is so good on the offensive glass that teams don’t expect the player that’s guarding him to garner many rebounds because he has to almost face guard him. Then you put him on the defensive end and he changes the game with blocked shots and an intimidating presence. His offense will get better with improved footwork and patience and his free-throw percentage needs to move up as well. He grabs this spot because he took his team to the Finals last year. If Vince Carter fits in like he should, they might make another appearance with Superman carrying them.
2. Kobe Bryant (2)
The Black Mamba has finally did what many thought he would not be able to do… And that is winning a championship without Shaquille. He is the best offensive player and on-the-ball defender in the league. If Kobe wanted to score 40 a game, he could. But Phil Jackson has finally convinced him to share the ball and save that bottomless energy for the playoffs. Kobe is the most dedicated and smartest player I have ever seen and I wish every aspiring young basketball player could spend a day with him.
1. LeBron James (1)
I expect LeBron to continue to ascend to levels only reserved for the greats of the game. He continues to flourish every year. His shooting percentages across the board continue to grow with his all-around game. He shot 50 percent and elevated his free-throw percentage to 78 percent last season. The 35 points per game he scored in last year’s playoffs are just a sign of things to come for King James. We need to sit back and enjoy the sick individual numbers he will continue to post as his career moves along. There is no doubt he will win a championship before his career is over. Will that happen with Shaq?
It is pretty obvious that the mindset of these two teams are direct opposites. The Cavaliers are hungry and willing to please while the Pistons seem like a group ready for a vacation. I continue to laugh at people who think the NBA season starts in April. The reason the Cavaliers are good is because of the consistency they have developed during the year and the reason Detroit is playing poorly is because they treated the season like a training camp. I continue to remind people about how special Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajawon, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan are. They never lost the hunger to win multiple championships. This Piston team has proven to us that they are a content group and the Cavaliers should sweep them if they don’t let down their guard.
The Pistons are paying a serious price for losing the leadership of Chauncey Billups. Combine that with the mistake of not drafting Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh in 2003 and Joe Dumars now has to blow up this team next year. I love Antonio McDyess, but the move he made by forcing Denver to buy out his contract to go back to Detroit will go down as one of the worst personal decisions he will ever make in his life.
I continue to marvel at LeBron James. He is on par with Kobe Bryant as the smartest basketball player in the NBA. We are watching a combination of skill and power that this game has never seen. The 38-8-7 night he had in Game 1 was a message to the rest of the playoff teams that King James is on a mission.
Chicago vs. Boston
I thought Chicago made a mistake when they took Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley. I understood the marketing aspect of it all, but I still thought Beasley was the right choice. Well, I was dead wrong. Rose has proven to me all year that he was the right pick and after the 36 points and 11 assists he put on Boston in Game 1, I would tend to think the Celtics are believers as well. Doc Rivers made a remark last year when people were applauding what a great coaching job he did in the Celtics championship run… He said, “I ran the same stuff the year before and got blasted for doing a poor coaching job.”
You do not have success in this league without great players. Kevin Garnett is a great player and most importantly is the emotional leader of the Celtics. Without Garnett, the Celtics are a 5th or 6th seed. So it is no surprise the Bulls were able to beat them and it was no surprise that Rose shredded their tough defense. I love Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but they will need some tremendous defensive help from Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and the rest of the guys to make up for the loss of Garnett.
The Bulls are young and hungry and as I mentioned above in reference to the Pistons, it is hard to win back-to-back championships. I still think the Celtics have enough to win this series, but they will not if Rose continues to attack the rim and create opportunities for his teammates. This has quickly become the best series to keep an eye on.
(I wonder if Stephon Marbury realizes Derrick Rose is a mirror image of what people thought he would become with his combination of scoring, defense and the leadership he has portrayed this season).
Orlando vs. Philadelphia
I missed this game and I was extremely surprised when I saw the final score, but Philly has made a consistent effort to change people’s opinions come playoff time. Last year they had Detroit on the brink of elimination before they ran out of nerves and gas.
Orlando will now find out how difficult they are to beat. This was the worst matchup for the Magic because Philly is better at what Orlando likes to do. The edge Orlando has is Dwight Howard, but if he does not have monster games the Magic are in serious trouble.
The keys to this series are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. They cannot continue to shoot poorly and most importantly they have to get back in transition to keep Andre Miller out of the paint. Miller is the most underrated point guard in the NBA and he is a potential triple-double every game he plays.
The Magic better use the length of Lewis and Turkoglu to get more interior shots to slow the pace or the Sixers or they will suffer. Also, would someone please tell Rafer Alston that he is a point guard and not a shooter? He took 15 shots and made 5 and he shoots 38 percent for the year. Stan Van Gundy also needs to calm down or he will prove Shaq’s assessment of being a nervous coach down the stretch to be correct. A good team like the Magic should not be blowing 14-point leads in the fourth quarter. I am reminded that most great coaches will say, give me a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. The pressure is on them to solidify the win.
I think Orlando will win the series, but it will go 6 or 7, which will kill their chances to stay fresh enough to deal with Cleveland in the conference finals.
Atlanta vs. Miami
The Miami Heat are arriving in Atlanta on Wednesday, I assume, because they sent their junior varsity team on Sunday and the Atlanta Hawks spanked them and cruised to one of the easiest playoff victories I have seen in a while. Josh Smith had his own personal dunk contest going on throughout the game.
The Atlanta Hawks are a dangerous team and the scare they put into the Celtics last year is giving them the confidence to excel in this year’s playoffs. This Hawks’ version is much better defensively and extremely unselfish. Mike Woodson has done one of the best coaching jobs this year and it showed in his defensive plan against Dwyane Wade in Game 1. Wade was 8 for 21 in a devastating display of offense and defense from the Hawks.
The Heat played like a young team and left Wade alone on an island. That cannot continue to happen or this series will be over in a hurry. This victory is bittersweet for the Hawks because the challenge for Mike Woodson will be to get his team to believe that Game 1 was a mirage and the real Heat team will show up on Wednesday.
I do not expect the Heat to shoot 36 percent again and struggle from behind the three-point line (4-23), but if they do they will need to grab more than the five offensive rebounds they had in Game 1.
LA Lakers vs. Utah
The Utah Jazz will be swept out of the first round quickly if they continue to shoot 39 percent while giving up 55 percent to the powerful Lakers. Logic tells me that this trend will not continue to happen especially if Mehmet Okur gets back in the lineup for Game 2. The Lakers toyed with the Jazz in Game 1. The Jazz hung around and probably could have made it a game if they did not blow the many opportunities the Lakers gave them around the basket.
The Lakers’ length is obviously a major problem for the Jazz, so in that instance they will need to get better outside shooting from Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and CJ Miles.
The Laker bench had 33 points to offset the 37 the Jazz bench produced. Utah has no chance to win one game if that trend continues because the Lakers starters will have a stranglehold on that scoring advantage all series long.
Trevor Ariza was huge with his 21 points on 8 for 10 shooting. The Lakers are looking to close this series out fast, but they better be very cautious about any letdown in Game 2 because Utah is the most difficult place to play, especially come playoff time. L.A does not need that kind of stress in their run for another championship.
New Orleans vs. Denver
This was a beat down of surprising proportions, but not unexpected if both Chauncey Billups and JR Smith shoot the ball like they did in Game 1. I think the Nuggets would have beaten anyone shooting the ball like that. Billups sent a serious message to Chris Paul and the Hornets by draining 8 three-point shots and scoring 36 points. Smith did not shoot it well. He was 0-7 from behind the arc, but he made some acrobatic jumpers in the third quarter to put the Hornets out of their misery and think about Game 2.
The Nuggets are a volatile team and usually come playoff time those teams eventually lose, but Denver plays emotional/physical defense and the Hornets seemed to back down from it in Game 1. Don’t expect it to happen again. I picked the Hornets to win this series and I still see it happening, especially if they can keep Carmelo Anthony under wraps, which is not easy. Also Billups will continue to play well, but not to the tune of 8 for 9 three-pointers and 36 points. And that means others will have to step up for the Nuggets to win the second game.
The Hornets’ goal is to win one game away because they know the Nuggets have struggled on the road this year and the emotion they rely on can backfire when things are not going well for them.
David West has to become a more physical presence in protecting Chris Paul from the over excessive contact from Kenyon Martin and Dahntay Jones. I am sure the best officials will be working the rest of this series because it’s about to become a fist-fight.
San Antonio vs. Dallas
The benches will be the difference in this series and the Mavericks have a big advantage as it showed in Game 1. The Mavericks led by Jose Juan Barea, Brandon Bass and likely Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry outscored the Spurs bench 39 to 14.
The Spurs are a beaten-down bunch and the patchwork job that Gregg Popovich has done over the last few years has finally taken a toll. Without Manu Ginobili, I can’t imagine the Spurs beating the Mavericks trying to rely on just Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.
The Mavericks have too many weapons and most importantly they are playing excellent basketball. We have to admire how good Duncan and Parker are. If you told me that 36-year-old Michael Finley, Matt Bonner and Roger Mason would be starting alongside them in a playoff series, I would have said they needed to explore what vacation destination they would be headed to after Round 1.
If Popovich finds a way to win this series, he will definitely become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He already is the best smoke-and-mirrors coach I have ever seen, but if Josh Howard can stay healthy with that gimpy ankle the Spurs will need much more than that to survive a first-round ouster.
The player of the game was Erick Dampier. His 10 points and 11 rebounds were big, but his ability to keep Tim Duncan off the free throw line was huge. Duncan had only 1 attempt in 37 minutes.
Portland vs. Houston
Aaron Brooks is the real deal. People wonder why the Rockets gave Rafer Alston away. Now you know why. Brooks has replaced the offensive production of Tracy McGrady but in a more efficient way. The Blazers have no answer for Brooks and that might be the difference in this series before it’s over. He was 10 of 17 with 7 assists and 2 turnovers and I thought jumpstarted a Rocket team that all of sudden is looking like the one team that will make it extremely difficult for the Lakers before it is over.
I can’t ignore the perfect game Yao Ming sent the Blazers way in just 24 minutes of action. He did not miss a shot. 9-9 from the field and 6-6 from the line for 24 points.
The physical presence of the Rockets and the youthfulness of the Blazers jumped off the screen in Game 1 and it will be interesting to see how the Blazers react from the beating they received.
LaMarcus Aldridge will have to show up. He was a nervous puppy Saturday and I don’t expect him to be that way in Game 2, but will it be enough?
The Blazers win with energy, but the Rockets create a major problem with their half-court offense. Don’t be surprised if Nate McMillan gives seldom-used rookie Jerryd Bayless a look to try and put some pressure on Aaron Brooks on the offensive end if he gets it going again in Game 2.
I still give the Rockets the edge in this series based on experience.
Ask me who I think is the best pure basketball player on Earth when it comes to smarts, overall ability, mental toughness, fundamental skills and clutch play and I will say Kobe Bryant. Ask me who I think is the most physically dominant basketball player with similar traits and I will say LeBron James.
But if you ask me who I think will win the MVP award if voting is in favor of the player that has the weakest supporting cast and yet still has his team in the playoffs and competing at a high level… Then I will tell you it’s Dwyane Wade.
I have been one of Wade’s most vocal critics, but his dedication this year in getting his body in great physical shape to play 82 games has paid dividends that we all knew he had.
Wade listened to someone this past offseason – or maybe he just watched the ultimate workout machine, Kobe Bryant, over the past few summers while playing for the Redeem Team. He reported to the Olympics in great shape and it showed with his ability to play great on both ends of the court and stand out more than anyone else on that gold medal team.
Wade was the best player this past summer and he is trying extremely hard to convince a great number of writers to change their thinking about who should be MVP this season. What he has done this season – 29.9 points a game, and even better after the All-Star break – sends a signal to anyone who thought it’s a two-man show between LeBron and Kobe for the award.
The run Wade has been is Jordan-like for sure. He is not only putting up insane numbers. He is also flirting with triple doubles every night and winning games with Hollywood endings. He has truly become an un stoppable force with his ability to get to the rim at will to set up his improved shooting range out to the three-point line.
Kobe and LeBron have taken notice because their numbers have risen in this stretch as well.
Wade is on such a rapid pace with a mediocre team that I can’t help but say he has become a serious contender to Kobe and LeBron. If voting goes to the standards of how to view a MVP, Wade should walk away with the award beating this year’s most dominant player – LeBron James.
That has happened before. Charles Barkley and Karl Malone won the award during the Michael Jordan era. Allen Iverson, Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki have been MVPs this decade – basically dominated by Kobe, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan.
So we must assume the MVP does not usually go to the best player in the league. The best example would be Steve Nash, who admitted during his back-to-back MVP run that it was absurd to think he was better than Kobe, LeBron, Duncan or Shaq. But he was doing something no one expected and that was taking a 28-win Phoenix Suns team and help turn it into the most exciting team in the league by winning 62 games.
Wade is not doing that. He has the Heat only six games over .500 (36-30) and in fifth place in a weak Eastern Conference, but if you look at the Heat’s roster without him they would be lucky to win 12 games.
That reason alone will increase Wade’s chances of leapfrogging over Kobe and LeBron.
The easiest comparison of the three might lie in if the voters agree with my thought that the Lakers and Cavaliers would still be potentially play-off bound teams minus Kobe and LeBron and where would the Heat be without Wade.
The Lakers have Pau Gasol,Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and Derek Fisher, which would be a legit fifth or sixth seed in the Western Conference. The Cavaliers have Mo Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and a trio of solid veterans that could have them competing for a sixth, seventh or eight seed in the East. Miami? It would be lottery-bound squad with an aging Jermaine O’Neal surrounded by a nucleus of young players still trying to figure the league out.
That sceanario should really get Kobe’s and LeBron’s supporters scrambling because if Wade continues with this rapid pace and somehow overtakes Atlanta for the fourth seed, then Wade will have a chance to win his first MVP award and that will be the biggest steal he has had all year long.
More than three months into the season, I guess it’s time to update my Top 25. Here you go…
25. Al Jefferson
Jefferson bumps Shawn Marion out the last spot and gets in over players like Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams. When Shaq retires, Jefferson will probably become the game’s most dominant low-post scorer. He has a variety of moves and stays so low on his drives, it is extremely difficult for players to guard him. The Wolves have improved at a fast rate since Kevin McHale took over and Jefferson has been dominant. That should be no surprise since McHale was the best post player of his time.
24. Ray Allen
Allen should have probably been here already. He is one the best shooters ever and has played as well or better than Garnett and Pierce the first half of the season. Pick any player you want to take a game-tying jump shot to tie or win the game and Allen will be definitely at the top of the list. He replaces Tracy McGrady, who can’t stay healthy enough to warrant a spot.
23. Danny Granger
A scoring machine who plays on the ground although he can elevate on a defender when he needs to. He is the most improved player in the game and I see him getting better. Granger can play 15-plus years and be productive with his efficiency towards the game. The Pacers are very competitive despite their poor record and that is why first-time All-Star Granger moves in and Caron Butler drops out.
22. Steve Nash
No player has been asked to change his game this year more than Nash. He has been asked to slow down his tempo and creativity. I guess it is similar to buying a Ferrari and only being able to drive it 55. The reason Nash has dropped is not because of his abilities, which I think are still there. It’s his inability so far to grasp the new system and give us the production we have seen and been spoiled with the last few years. I still consider Nash the most unselfish player in the league and its best all-around shooter.
21. Brandon Roy
Moves in as Baron Davis drops out. Roy is the cousin of Manu Ginobili. He finds a way to attack the basket regardless of the defensive tactics of the opposing team. He uses his left hand better than some left-handers. He is dangerous because he has continued to stretch his range and now can run off numbers at a rapid pace. The Blazers are the most talented team in the league 1 through 12 and one way Roy can continue to move up is not becoming too shot happy and getting his teammates involved more in the early parts of the game.
20. Manu Ginobili
Moves up four spots and I am sure my Spurs readers will still not be happy. The guy is just a pure nightmare to guard and he is definitely one the toughest clutch players in the league, but I still can’t stand how he flops consistently when touched. I will still give him the benefit of the doubt and call him one the top 10 offensive players with the game on the line. And yes, I would love to have him play on my favorite team.
19. Deron Williams
Has been dealt a tough blow. He gets hurt to start the season and he loses his running mate Carlos Boozer as well. He falls eight spots by no fault of his own. I still think he is the second best point guard in the game and will be in the Top 10 at season’s end if he gets healthy. He is the only player in the league that gives Chris Paul problems on a consistent basis.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Stays at number 18 and probably deserves to be rated higher. Please name me a true center other than Howard that has played better than Shaq? The reason he stays at 18 is because although he is playing extremely well, the Suns as a team have struggled. I would like people to finally applaud Shaq for improving not only on his conditioning but his free-throw shooting as well.
17. Amare Stoudemire
Falls 10 spots and, if he does not improve his basic defensive skills, could fall further. Amare potentially could be the best power forward in the game, but has not shown an overall consistency on the defensive end to warrant staying at number 7. I admire how Amare was able to rebound from ACL surgery and regain his explosiveness, but we need to see more growth on the court with regards to the dirty parts of the game, like defense and rebounding.
16. Joe Johnson
Moves into the Top 25 as Allen Iverson drops out. He has proven that the Hawks’ run last year was no fluke and his ability to lead and become a top-notch scorer was real as well. He has the best handle (next to LeBron and Kobe) for players over 6-foot-5. He has become a triple threat and is one of the league’s best defenders as well.
15. Pau Gasol
Gets in the Top 25 and Elton Brand drops out because I am convinced that he is determined and motivated to get to the level I expected him to. I thought he would take a back seat to Andrew Bynum, but he did not. His passing ability is the reason why he scores so easily around the post. I still think he can be a better shot blocker and he will have to now with Bynum down.
14. Carmelo Anthony
Has had tough luck come All-Star time, but he is one of the best players in the league and he moves up three spots. I think he is the most versatile small forward in the game offensively with his ability to post and knock down the three-point shot. I have always wondered when he would start to show the leadership abilities that he showed at Syracuse during his NCAA championship run.
13. Chauncey Billups
Jumps nine spots and could be higher if Denver continues to play consistent basketball. Billups has undoubtedly become the best pick-up this season based on the improved play of the up-and-down Nuggets. Billups has helped them realize working hard every game and staying focused will have them in most games – and, most importantly, beat bad teams. The Nuggets are 20-1 against sub .500 teams all because of Billups’ leadership.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
Stays at number 12 and deservedly so. He is really starting to gain momentum and the Mavericks seem to be regaining their swagger back as a team. Dirk is the best shooting seven-footer ever and if he can continue to improve defensively the Mavericks will make a serious run come playoff time.
11. Paul Pierce
I think Paul is the best scoring small forward in the game not named LeBron. He scores whenever he wants and does not run come crunch time. Garnett is the Celtics’ MVP, but Pierce is their MIP (Most Important Player). He is also the biggest trash talker in the league, which I happen to think fuels his consistency.
10. Chris Bosh
Could have dropped more because he has not shown me an ability to put his team on his back and get them through tough times. He is so unorthodox offensively that he is impossible to figure out. His mid-range shot has improved big time and has shown a willingness to take the big shots. I still believe we should be seeing better leadership abilities and, if not, I can’t see him staying at this spot for long.
9. Tony Parker
I keep trying to figure out why I put Parker seven spots up from 16. I just flat out think he is a point guard with a center mentality. The guy constantly is in the Top 5 in scoring in the paint. Name me a point guard historically that dominated like that consistently. He now has improved his mid-range jump shot, which makes him virtually impossible to guard. He also has become one of the best clutch players in the league as well.
8. Yao Ming
Drops two spots but only because Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest can’t stay on the floor. Yao is the most unguardable center in the game because of his ability to shoot from 20 feet and post up without fear of a hand in his face. I would like him to get tougher, but there is not one team that would not think about trading their best player for him other than the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Cavaliers. I still say the Rockets, if healthy, can win the Western Conference.
7. Dwyane Wade
He is proving how good a player he is when in top shape. I have said consistently over the last few years that he has a bad body and will always have injuries. But with a new body and demeanor, Wade is showing why he is one of the best players we have ever seen. What he is doing with Miami is equivalent to what Chris Paul is doing in New Orleans.
6. Kevin Garnett
I would love to be a psychologist and sit in a room with KG for a day. He goes from calm to incredibly psychotic within minutes. The one thing I enjoy about KG is that he has always been like this on the floor. There is no fake in him when it comes to exuberance on the court. The Celtics have molded themselves around him and that’s why a small blip of losing games did not affect them for long.
5. Tim Duncan
Drops a spot and mainly because of one little blemish that seems to be always correctable and that is the Spurs’ slow start against teams above .500. The Spurs are 11-11 against top teams. Duncan is ageless. Just when you think he is losing a step, he makes you look bad for speaking too soon. I think he is the most professional player on and off the floor in the NBA. And its best leader.
4. Dwight Howard
Moves up four spots because he has become the second coming of Shaq. The Magic is his team and he has elevated everybody’s games – especially first-time All-Star Jameer Nelson. That appealing smile is hiding a nastiness that opposing players fear and Howard seems to get a kick out it. Just remeber one early season incident where he elbowed Suns rookie Robin Lopez and received a technical foul. As they retreated, he mockingly patted Lopez on the rear, thus sending a message… It’s not personal, but I will hurt you next time you get in my way.
3. Chris Paul
If there was a wonder how valuable Paul is, just witness the Hornets’ second half meltdown against the Blazers and the beat-down from the Chicago Bulls in the first two games of Paul’s groin injury. I have not seen a team fall to such levels since Magic Johnson missed games. Paul has re-defined the two-man game and how to guard against it. He is the toughest player in the game pound for pound.
2. Kobe Bryant
His drive to succeed is beyond reason. He is the best late-game assassin offensively I have seen since Jordan and Bird. I really have enjoyed his willingness to allow his talented teammates to excel, but with Bynum down are we ready to see the old Kobe surface again? The 61 points and 0 rebounds against the Knicks were probably a sign of things to come. I feel sorry for all the players who have to guard Kobe from here on out, but will it be for the good of the Lakers?
1. LeBron James
He continues to hold on to the No. 1 spot because he is doing the best job of carrying a team since HakeemOlajuwon carried the Rockets to back-to-back championships. Also, his follow up to Kobe scoring 61 against the Knicks was downright ridiculous. Scoring 50-plus is one thing, but getting a (quasi) triple-double to boot was the icing on the cake that has kept LB on top. I watched that game and he could have easily gotten 60 if he wanted to.
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.
Boston is the favorite until someone beats them and the Lakers are the favorite in the West, especially with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, but I don’t want to focus on teams this early. I am targeting players and where they rank coming into this season.
Here are my Top 25 players in the league and my reasons for ranking them.
25. Shawn Marion
The most versatile forward in the game. Shawn gives a team a little of everything and a lot of solid defense. Underappreciated for what he brings, he will command a ton of attention at the trade deadline if the Heat can’t reach a contract agreement with him.
24. Manu Ginobli
The guy is a winner and a competitor. Definitely the best foreign player in the league when it comes to effectiveness in clutch situations. Led the Spurs in scoring and carried them in crunch time. The most disliked player in the league on the road due to his playing style… But every team would love to have him.
23. Tracy McGrady
The key for Tracy is to stay healthy. I wonder how committed he is in the weight room. Body has not changed much during his career, which is a negative. Definitely one the best scorers in the league, but on-the-ball defense will be huge for Houston this year. He needs to back off on deferring to the three-point shot. I always felt he is a mid-range shooter and that’s what the Rockets need him to be.
22. Chauncey Billups
He has great leadership abilities, but I think he has to step it up even more. He seemed to get along with ex coach Flip Saunders, but allowed his teammates to step out of line too often last year. I think at times he’s a little too unselfish because he is the best scorer on the team with his ability to get a jump shot or drive to the basket at will. I expect more this year to validate being 21 on my list.
21. Caron Butler
Gilbert Arenas will have to take a back seat to Butler when he gets healthy. He has become the heart and soul of the Wizards. He has an ability to create shots when none seem available and his jumpshot has improved every season. A true warrior who has battled injuries the last few years.
20. Elton Brand
When healthy, he’s one the best power forwards in the game. The Sixers now have one of the best post players and screeners in the game. Brand has a lot to prove this year and eyes will be on him all season long, but he will prevail with consistent offense and sneaky shot blocking ability.
19. Baron Davis
I will not believe Davis leaving Golden State was on his own accord. The Warriors are going to suffer without Davis and the Clippers will be rewarded. He has the most underrated on-the-ball hands in the league defensively. And we all know of his ability to change the opponent’s defense when he has the ball on the perimeter or the post.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Quite honestly, in my opinion he is still the most dominating presence in the game today. He changes the game when he is on the floor and that makes him still one of the best players in basketball. People tend to talk about his commitment to staying in shape, but look at it this way… How many big men like Shaq have lasted this long? Zero. Give him credit for maintaining what he has with that massive body. Stanley Roberts, Benoit Benjamin, Oliver Miller… No, not great players like Shaq, but they could not stay in shape because of the bodies they had. He will produce some big numbers at times this year with the Suns slowed offense.
17. Carmelo Anthony
A combination of finesse and power. A tremendous offensive rebounder and finisher around the basket. Anthony would be higher if he developed better leadership abilities and trusted his teammates more often on the court. He will definitely wind up in the top twenty in scoring when his career is done, but championships will elude him if he does not continue to improve his overall package.
16. Tony Parker
Please find me someone who can stop him from getting to the basket? You will not find that person. Speed and underrated strength allows Parker to get in the paint and complete shots. Parker is a true winner and is the most dangerous penetrator in league history. His jump shot in the two-man game with Duncan has made him a true force.
15. Paul Pierce
His nickname is The Truth. Well, true it is. He has an uncanny ability to score on anyone off the dribble or in the post. He loves contact and is definitely one of the best go-to clutch players in the league. His leadership qualities really came to light during the championship run. That has elevated Pierce among the greats in Celtic history.
14. Allen Iverson
The toughest player pound for pound in the history of the league. A medical marvel that never runs out of energy. I often wondered if Iverson would last five years in the league, but I understand now why he has endured. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he decided to focus on basketball and now we understand the ignorance to pain when it comes to him. He is downright relentless and a joy to watch.
13. Steve Nash
Every time I see Steve Nash I ask God why couldn’t I have been born 10 years later. Nash is the most unselfish player in the league. He honestly dislikes taking a bunch of shots. His enjoyment comes in the form of an Amare Stoudemire or Shaq dunk or a Raja Bell three-pointer than actually scoring 20 points a night. That’s why he won back to back MVPs and that is why he is still one of the best players in the league. Nash will be counted on to use that stroke more this year because he will play off the ball more than usual. That’s a great move because he is the best shooter in the league.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
He is the best shooting big man in the league, but needs to improve individual leadership on a team in need of it. He also has to stop deferring to the three-pointer and become more assertive around the basket, which he can do with ease. (I apologize to Dirk and all Maverick fans for the oversight. He clearly belongs on the Top 25).
11. Deron Williams
Williams will do something unheard of in Utah if he continues to improve every year. Yes, I will say it… Make people stop thinking about John Stockton. The Jazz are right back at the level Stockton left when it comes to a point guard that leads and produces victories on a consistent basis. Williams is definitely the strongest point guard in the league and equally as smart when it comes to making decisions in a Jerry Sloan offensive system.
10. Dwyane Wade
Would be higher if he could just stay healthy. I mentioned a few years ago that he would not last long in the league if he continued to hit the floor 50 times a game. Wade was fantastic this summer in the Olympics and showed me that he could possibly lead the league in steals. He has really gotten himself into great shape so I expect him to get back on track to becoming the great player we all expected him to be when he led Miami to a title.
9. Chris Bosh
Reminds me of Bill Cartwright, but athletic. I would be terrified to guard him because his body seems to be going in twenty different directions when he attacks, but it works and gets him to the free-throw line consistently. Now with Jermaine O’Neal beside him, he should take off even more. He really needs to develop a go-to move inside and stop trying to incorporate a thousand moves, which I think gets him in trouble at times.
8. Dwight Howard
Can be as good as he wants to. He has the body to maneuver anywhere he wants to on the court and that is huge at this level. His rebounding ability and presence on the court alone warrant Howard this spot. Must improve free-throw shooting if he plans on moving up any further.
7. Amare Stoudemire
The most feared power forward in the game because of the embarrassment factor. He is what I call “dirt strong” and it’s deceiving because of his slender build. His shooting stroke is picture perfect and consistent. TerryPorter’s new offensive system will allow Amare to get more post-up opportunities, thus improving his trips to the charity stripe, where he hovered around 80 percent all year. He should average 25-plus points again this year and improve defensively.
6. Yao Ming
Injuries cost Yao last year, but before he left for the season he was playing like the best center in the league statistically and one must wonder if Houston would have broken the Lakers’ 33-game winning streak if he did not go down at the beginning of it. He is difficult to guard when in top shape. I expect him to have a great year leading the Rockets deep in the playoffs. Ron Artest will keep him from picking up cheap fouls with his great one-on-one defense.
5. Kevin Garnett
Kevin is the here because he finally got a chance to combine his talents and leadership with All-Stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. He is the most persistent player I have ever seen. I have never seen Garnett take a night off emotionally. If you have watched Garnett over his career, he is in constant dialogue with himself for 48 minutes and 82 games. That, my friends, is special in itself and now he is a champion.
4. Tim Duncan
This guy is pure professionalism. I would love my son to live with him for a summer. His demeanor and unselfishness with his teammates is pure gold. He could average huge numbers every year, but understands winning championships is more important. No way does Ginobili lead the team in scoring without Duncan allowing him to. Give credit to David Robinson for instilling that in Duncan.
3. Chris Paul
He is here because I personally think he is the best leader right now in the NBA. He has admitted studying Steve Nash and it is obvious when you watch his interaction with his teammates. Paul is a clone of Isiah Thomas and he showed it last year. The best pick-and-roll guard in the league.
2. Kobe Bryant
The closest in talent to Michael Jordan and in a lot of ways better than MJ. Dislike him if you want, but he is the perfect example of preparation when it comes to basketball. He is the smartest player in the league and makes the game look easy.
1. LeBron James
The best physical tools in the history of the game. He has the smarts of Magic Johnson, the brute strength and athleticism of George McGinnis and the speed of Ricky Green rolled into one massive body. I have said this since he has been in the league… If he continues to improve his jump shot, he will become the best ever.
Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Ask me who I think is the best pure basketball player on Earth when it comes to smarts, overall ability, mental toughness, fundamental skills and clutch play and I will say Kobe Bryant. Ask me who I think is the most physically dominant basketball player with similar traits and I will say LeBron James.
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.