Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
This will definitely be a competitive year and I expect this list to change come mid-season…
25. Ray Allen (24)
Ray had a very good year. He struggled at times in the playoffs, but in his defense he is better running off screens than spotting up. He had to stand a lot during the playoffs and he struggled at times because of it. Allen shot 4 percentage points above his career field-goal average last year. He averaged 18 points, shot 40 percent from behind the arc and nailed 92 percent of his free throws. Allen should flourish even more with Kevin Garnett back and the equally unselfish Rasheed Wallace on board.
24. Devin Harris
Speed kills and Harris has it. He jumps in at 24 and should be here to stay. Harris can get to the basket with the best of them and make his free throws at an 82 percent clip. Played only 69 games and shot a dismal 43 percent from the field, but I love his upside and I think he will flourish on a Nets team that will struggle all season. If Harris is not a Top 20 player this season, I will be disappointed.
23. Shaquille O’Neal (18)
Shaq had a great season last year in Phoenix although the Suns failed to advance to the playoffs. He was in tremendous shape and proved he can still flourish when in that condition. It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate it knowing the offense will not run through him like it did last year. I know he has his limitations on defense, but the Cavaliers have excellent perimeter defenders and his job will be much simpler than it was last year. LeBron will get him easy baskets, but the prevailing question is… Can he deal with getting out of King James’ way a majority of the time? That will be an issue on the court and in the locker room.
22. Danny Granger (23)
Granger has an old-school game in a new-school body. Takes what the defense gives him and makes you pay. 25 points per game and 87 from the line will give the Pacers a chance every night. Only played in 67 games last year and still put up crazy numbers. I would like to see his passing and defense improve before he moves into consistent All-Star category, but the Pacers have a player that will remind them of the scoring Reggie Miller left with.
21. Al Jefferson (25)
The best low-post ability in the game, when he is rolling he is virtually unguardable. The injury slowed him up, but it will not affect him because he plays below the rim. I believe he will become a better player because he will need to be more cerebral coming back from a season-ending injury. The Wolves unfortunately will still be bad for the next few years, but if Jefferson continues to grow as a player they will indeed have their cornerstone.
20. Kevin Durant
All I can say is, “League, watch out.” This young man can play and got better at a rapid pace with every game last year. George Gervin reincarnated with crazy range. At 20 years old, he poured in 25 points a game, shot 48 percent and grabbed almost 7 rebounds. He will be an All-Star the rest of his career and will flirt with the All-NBA team at season’s end. The one surprising aspect of his game that also has gotten much better is his defense. He should study film of ex NBA player Derrick McKey because he could become that type of defender before it’s over. The one area he needs to continue to grow in is leadership. He has a tendency to wander into his own world and forget about his teammates. He will move up on this list by mid-season and that’s a guarantee.
19. Steve Nash (22)
I have no idea why Nash has moved up three spots, but I suspect with the way the Suns will play again this year he will be higher come mid-season. For the third straight year he shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line (a record). All due respect to Ray Allen, but Steve Nash is by far the best shooter in the game and has been for the last six years. Nash also still found time to average 9.7 assists a game. He is the consummate professional and a teammate’s dream because he has no prejudice when he steps on the court. If you get open, you get the ball.
18. Joe Johnson (16)
Johnson, a personal favorite of mine, has probably the best handle for his size next to LeBron and Kobe. I would definitely like to see him improve his low-post game because with his passing ability he would destroy opposing defenses with the shooters he has at his disposal. Numbers tend to go down in the playoffs, which has to concern both Joe and Mike Woodson. He averaged 5 fewer points in the playoffs and if the Hawks are to get to the semifinals again this year, he has to be dynamic in the second season. Six assists a game will go up with the addition of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith.
17. Chauncey Billups (13)
The Denver Nuggets should have given him a huge bonus, because he made them a ton of extra money that they would not have seen had they stayed put. He automatically settled them down and made them think about Team instead of I. Billups is one of the best leaders in the game and definitely one of its best clutch players. He averaged 20 points in the postseason, but ended with a whimper against the Lakers – which probably had him working out extra hard this offseason. He needs to improve his shooting when they run him off the three-point line. He shot a dismal 41 percent from the field. I expect Billups numbers to continue to go down, thus allowing players like JR Smith to take more of the load along with Carmelo Anthony.
16. Paul Pierce (11)
They call him The Truth and he has proven up to the label for 11 seasons. Pierce is definitely the go-to scorer on the Celtics and one of the best clutch players in the league, especially in the playoffs. He has been the rock for this organization and I expect him to become one of the few players to start and finish his career with the same team. The one thing I would love to see is better conditioning. There is a part of me that always feels like Pierce has never been in the type of shape that could make him have a super season instead of the ho-hum normal 20 points per game. I guess that’s just a part of me that wants to see more because he is one of my favorite people and players in the league. Dropping him to 16th was more an age thing than production, but I expect him to explode again this season with the addition of Rasheed Wallace.
15. Brandon Roy (21)
Roy is a taller version Tony Parker. He has an uncanny ability to get to the basket despite defenses gearing up against him. He has very good all-around ability, but I cringe at how he squeezes the ball for much of the shot clock. It will be interesting to see if Andre Miller can keep the ball long enough to at least run the offense before Roy runs to it and goes one-on-one. I think that selfish part of his skills needs to change early in the game to allow teammates to gain a flow. He will find out that he would become much more potent, like Kobe has found out, when he plays more of a decoy early and becomes the assassin later. I anticipate Miller having a calming influence, allowing him to flow to a much better season. That’s why I moved him up six spots. He should improve on that 48 percent percentage and score in the 23-24 range, but be fresh in the fourth quarter.
14. Chris Bosh (10)
It’s time for Chris Bosh to show that he can put a team on his back or ask management to bring in a veteran star to help him along. Bosh averaged 22 points, but shot a disappointing 48 percent. He has to develop a better low-post game and help his team get better high-percentage shots. Every year he seems to be floating further and further away from the basket. He took 49 three-point shots last year and made 12. Bosh is more of a finesse player, but the idea of improving his three-point game is the wrong road to travel. Let’s hope he has beefed up somewhat and is willing to allow his teammates to take care of the outside game. His role is to be dominant in the paint. Most importantly, I want Bosh to make Shaq change the statement he made about him last year. He called Bosh the RuPaul of big men. Bosh did not deserve that description. Let’s see if he can make Shaq look like the old man of centers.
13. Deron Williams (19)
When healthy Williams, Chris Paul and Tony Parker are the best all-around point guards at this juncture. I expect Williams to move into the Top 10 after this season if he puts in a full healthy year. He is the strongest point guard in the league and one of the best at the pick-and-roll. He will never show his true offensive skills because the Jerry Sloan system will not allow it, but his all-around abilities will propel the Jazz towards another solid season. His numbers normally escalate during the playoffs, which tells us about the toughness and confidence he possesses.
12. Amare Stoudemire (17)
How can you go from 17 to 12 after missing the last 29 games with a dangerous eye injury? Two reasons come to mind… 1. When he came back from a micro fracture surgery, we wrote him off and he became All-NBA. 2. The Suns are going back to their 7 Seconds or Less offense and Amare will be playing center. Those two reasons along with the tremendous shape he has kept his body in will propel him back up the ladder. There is no player in the NBA at Amare’s size with the quickness and explosiveness that he possesses. I expect him to average 27 to 30 points a game and help Phoenix secure a bottom playoff position this season. Also remember this is his free agent year, so expect him to be highly motivated.
11. Carmelo Anthony (14)
Anthony is the most versatile offensive forward in the game. He is listed at 230 pounds, but don’t believe that number. Anthony is packing on 240-plus and still moves like a gazelle. He can score anywhere on the floor. I don’t like his shot selection and that is why he shot 44 percent last year, but don’t get it twisted because he is a matchup nightmare. He is the best offensive rebounder in the league playing small forward when he commits himself. His post-up ability brings double teams and when he is focused, he is a pretty good defender. The Nuggets just need more leadership from him and more consistency on the offensive end every night. He is their most talented player, but he is not their best player because of these inefficiencies. I am looking for Carmelo to put it all together this season and elevate his game all-around, which would mean the Nuggets could have a return engagement with the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.
10. Pau Gasol (15)
Ok, I was wrong! I was not a big fan of the player I called the Poodle during the Celtic-Lakers Finals last year. He moves up five spots because he is the best fundamentally sound seven-footer in the league next to Tim Duncan. Gasol’s footwork is textbook and he has a great left hand that makes him virtually impossible to guard one-on-one. He showed me everything he had to in last year’s playoffs. He showed toughness, savvy, leadership and offensive consistency even when he did not touch the ball for minutes at a time. Kobe won without Shaq, but he would not have sniffed the Finals without Gasol. So I will retire the Poodle nickname and name him The Machine. The Lakers team already had that nickname for a player, but Sasha Vujacic doesn’t deserve it.
9. Tony Parker (9)
How can you be ranked number 9 and still be underrated? Will someone show me a player that can keep Parker out of the paint? Can anyone show me who finishes in traffic over bigger players more consistently at his size? I simply marvel at how good he has become in the pick-and-roll offense. There was once a time when teams would go under and dare him to shoot, but he has become a 50 percent shooter with an improved mid-range game. That improved skill will allow him to score 22 ppg consistently against anyone. Parker never gets the credit he deserves because of the greatness of Duncan, but he is the toughest player on the Spurs pound for pound without a doubt. This season might become his best because it seems as if Duncan has taken a back seat to the offensive prowess of Parker and seems content to let him shine. And shine he will.
8. Kevin Garnett (6)
When I first met Kevin Garnett, he took off his hat and said, “It’s an honor to meet you.” When I saw Garnett last year, he repeated that. Garnett is one the best leaders in sports and surprisingly always has been. I have even been guilty of being critical of his unselfishness. We will never be able to change that and I am so glad we as fans were not successful in doing so. He has been pass-first since he came into the league. He has at times deferred to players who were simple role players and at the same time ignored our bantering to shoot more. We watched him last year sit next to sweaty players in a custom-made suit on the Boston bench while he was injured. He did not isolate himself at the end of the bench. He was in the game even though he could not play and I noticed and respected him immensely for that. Who would not want to play with a superstar like him? He made Glen Davis cry last year during a game, but people don’t get fooled on why Davis was crying? I bet he cried because he was dressed down by a player that he respects to the highest level and he did not want to disappoint him. Garnett will come back with a vengeance and I expect the Celtics to return to championship form playing with the Big Ticket.
7. Dirk Nowitzki (12)
I made a mistake last season and left him off my Top 25. I corrected it right away and I think I made another mistake putting Dirk at number 12. Which brings me to the present. I am wondering if he can eventually move into the top 5. There will never be another Larry Bird. But if he isn’t close, who will? Dirk can flat out play and he works on his game. People are quick to label him soft, but tell me who gets beat up more than him and he still lights you up. I have always stood by the simple fact that great individual defense will never stop great individual offense consistently. I think Dirk proved that last year against Denver when Kenyon Martin got toasted all series long trying to guard him. The one area he needs to improve in, and it has gotten better, is his leadership. He has the talent around him to win the West, but it’s going to take a more rounded effort from him this season. I think he can pull it off. Watch out for the improved Mavericks and the best jump-shooting seven-footer in NBA history.
6. Chris Paul (3)
I love Paul. He is one of my favorite players to watch and for one reason. His leadership is off the charts and I enjoy how he directs and takes over a game with a scowl that has much bigger players paying attention. When he retires, he will have a pick of any coaching job available because of his ability to communicate and keep players in line. It was just too bad he really could not keep a healthy team on the floor last year. Losing Janero Pargo to a Greek team did not help. Paul did not fare well in the Hornets playoff loss to Denver and was embarrassed and shut down in their last two losses. I expect him to come back with a vengeance and play like a potential MVP candidate this season. His numbers offensively will probably go up unless Peja Stojakovic and David West stay healthy and perform up to expectations. If they don’t, Paul might do a Nate Archibald offensive impersonation this season and score over 25 ppg.
5. Tim Duncan (5)
Duncan is the best leader in the game and its best power forward. I can’t say enough about what a consummate professional Timmy is. Have you ever seen him take a night off? Have you ever seen him take bad shots? Have you ever seen him not be excited for his teammates? I watched David Robinson’s induction the other night and when they put the camera on Duncan, it was obvious where he got the immediate knowledge and unselfish nature from. Robinson stepped aside for Duncan and Duncan has been allowing his teammates to succeed as well with his unselfish nature. I expect Duncan to bounce back from the nagging injuries he experienced last year and help San Antonio challenge the Lakers for the Western Conference crown this year. His all-around numbers will go up, but the one category that could get them back to the Finals will be in the assists column. He averaged 3.5 last year and with the offense flowing through him that will get better.
4. Dwyane Wade (7)
Wade moves up three spots and I am sure in some fan’s eyes it was not enough. I can’t argue with that complaint. Wade is a scoring marvel. When he came into the league, he was all about getting to the basket and flying over the rim. But now he can score from anywhere with regularity. He shot almost 50 percent last year while leading the league in scoring at 30 ppg. He also impressed me by playing in 79 games, which were about 12 games over his average. The obvious reason was that Wade came into the season in great shape and he parlayed it into a career year. The Heat would have won 25 games without him and that’s why he was considered highly for MVP. Leadership will be tested this year again with so many young players and no significant additions. But one thing is for sure: South Beach belongs to Flash!
3. Dwight Howard (4)
I have Howard above Dwyane Wade for one simple reason: He changes the way teams have to defend in the paint. The second chance factor in the NBA is huge. If you give teams second and third chances to score on a consistent basis, your team will lose. Especially if it is Orlando with its plethora of scorers. Howard is so good on the offensive glass that teams don’t expect the player that’s guarding him to garner many rebounds because he has to almost face guard him. Then you put him on the defensive end and he changes the game with blocked shots and an intimidating presence. His offense will get better with improved footwork and patience and his free-throw percentage needs to move up as well. He grabs this spot because he took his team to the Finals last year. If Vince Carter fits in like he should, they might make another appearance with Superman carrying them.
2. Kobe Bryant (2)
The Black Mamba has finally did what many thought he would not be able to do… And that is winning a championship without Shaquille. He is the best offensive player and on-the-ball defender in the league. If Kobe wanted to score 40 a game, he could. But Phil Jackson has finally convinced him to share the ball and save that bottomless energy for the playoffs. Kobe is the most dedicated and smartest player I have ever seen and I wish every aspiring young basketball player could spend a day with him.
1. LeBron James (1)
I expect LeBron to continue to ascend to levels only reserved for the greats of the game. He continues to flourish every year. His shooting percentages across the board continue to grow with his all-around game. He shot 50 percent and elevated his free-throw percentage to 78 percent last season. The 35 points per game he scored in last year’s playoffs are just a sign of things to come for King James. We need to sit back and enjoy the sick individual numbers he will continue to post as his career moves along. There is no doubt he will win a championship before his career is over. Will that happen with Shaq?
More than three months into the season, I guess it’s time to update my Top 25. Here you go…
25. Al Jefferson
Jefferson bumps Shawn Marion out the last spot and gets in over players like Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams. When Shaq retires, Jefferson will probably become the game’s most dominant low-post scorer. He has a variety of moves and stays so low on his drives, it is extremely difficult for players to guard him. The Wolves have improved at a fast rate since Kevin McHale took over and Jefferson has been dominant. That should be no surprise since McHale was the best post player of his time.
24. Ray Allen
Allen should have probably been here already. He is one the best shooters ever and has played as well or better than Garnett and Pierce the first half of the season. Pick any player you want to take a game-tying jump shot to tie or win the game and Allen will be definitely at the top of the list. He replaces Tracy McGrady, who can’t stay healthy enough to warrant a spot.
23. Danny Granger
A scoring machine who plays on the ground although he can elevate on a defender when he needs to. He is the most improved player in the game and I see him getting better. Granger can play 15-plus years and be productive with his efficiency towards the game. The Pacers are very competitive despite their poor record and that is why first-time All-Star Granger moves in and Caron Butler drops out.
22. Steve Nash
No player has been asked to change his game this year more than Nash. He has been asked to slow down his tempo and creativity. I guess it is similar to buying a Ferrari and only being able to drive it 55. The reason Nash has dropped is not because of his abilities, which I think are still there. It’s his inability so far to grasp the new system and give us the production we have seen and been spoiled with the last few years. I still consider Nash the most unselfish player in the league and its best all-around shooter.
21. Brandon Roy
Moves in as Baron Davis drops out. Roy is the cousin of Manu Ginobili. He finds a way to attack the basket regardless of the defensive tactics of the opposing team. He uses his left hand better than some left-handers. He is dangerous because he has continued to stretch his range and now can run off numbers at a rapid pace. The Blazers are the most talented team in the league 1 through 12 and one way Roy can continue to move up is not becoming too shot happy and getting his teammates involved more in the early parts of the game.
20. Manu Ginobili
Moves up four spots and I am sure my Spurs readers will still not be happy. The guy is just a pure nightmare to guard and he is definitely one the toughest clutch players in the league, but I still can’t stand how he flops consistently when touched. I will still give him the benefit of the doubt and call him one the top 10 offensive players with the game on the line. And yes, I would love to have him play on my favorite team.
19. Deron Williams
Has been dealt a tough blow. He gets hurt to start the season and he loses his running mate Carlos Boozer as well. He falls eight spots by no fault of his own. I still think he is the second best point guard in the game and will be in the Top 10 at season’s end if he gets healthy. He is the only player in the league that gives Chris Paul problems on a consistent basis.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Stays at number 18 and probably deserves to be rated higher. Please name me a true center other than Howard that has played better than Shaq? The reason he stays at 18 is because although he is playing extremely well, the Suns as a team have struggled. I would like people to finally applaud Shaq for improving not only on his conditioning but his free-throw shooting as well.
17. Amare Stoudemire
Falls 10 spots and, if he does not improve his basic defensive skills, could fall further. Amare potentially could be the best power forward in the game, but has not shown an overall consistency on the defensive end to warrant staying at number 7. I admire how Amare was able to rebound from ACL surgery and regain his explosiveness, but we need to see more growth on the court with regards to the dirty parts of the game, like defense and rebounding.
16. Joe Johnson
Moves into the Top 25 as Allen Iverson drops out. He has proven that the Hawks’ run last year was no fluke and his ability to lead and become a top-notch scorer was real as well. He has the best handle (next to LeBron and Kobe) for players over 6-foot-5. He has become a triple threat and is one of the league’s best defenders as well.
15. Pau Gasol
Gets in the Top 25 and Elton Brand drops out because I am convinced that he is determined and motivated to get to the level I expected him to. I thought he would take a back seat to Andrew Bynum, but he did not. His passing ability is the reason why he scores so easily around the post. I still think he can be a better shot blocker and he will have to now with Bynum down.
14. Carmelo Anthony
Has had tough luck come All-Star time, but he is one of the best players in the league and he moves up three spots. I think he is the most versatile small forward in the game offensively with his ability to post and knock down the three-point shot. I have always wondered when he would start to show the leadership abilities that he showed at Syracuse during his NCAA championship run.
13. Chauncey Billups
Jumps nine spots and could be higher if Denver continues to play consistent basketball. Billups has undoubtedly become the best pick-up this season based on the improved play of the up-and-down Nuggets. Billups has helped them realize working hard every game and staying focused will have them in most games – and, most importantly, beat bad teams. The Nuggets are 20-1 against sub .500 teams all because of Billups’ leadership.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
Stays at number 12 and deservedly so. He is really starting to gain momentum and the Mavericks seem to be regaining their swagger back as a team. Dirk is the best shooting seven-footer ever and if he can continue to improve defensively the Mavericks will make a serious run come playoff time.
11. Paul Pierce
I think Paul is the best scoring small forward in the game not named LeBron. He scores whenever he wants and does not run come crunch time. Garnett is the Celtics’ MVP, but Pierce is their MIP (Most Important Player). He is also the biggest trash talker in the league, which I happen to think fuels his consistency.
10. Chris Bosh
Could have dropped more because he has not shown me an ability to put his team on his back and get them through tough times. He is so unorthodox offensively that he is impossible to figure out. His mid-range shot has improved big time and has shown a willingness to take the big shots. I still believe we should be seeing better leadership abilities and, if not, I can’t see him staying at this spot for long.
9. Tony Parker
I keep trying to figure out why I put Parker seven spots up from 16. I just flat out think he is a point guard with a center mentality. The guy constantly is in the Top 5 in scoring in the paint. Name me a point guard historically that dominated like that consistently. He now has improved his mid-range jump shot, which makes him virtually impossible to guard. He also has become one of the best clutch players in the league as well.
8. Yao Ming
Drops two spots but only because Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest can’t stay on the floor. Yao is the most unguardable center in the game because of his ability to shoot from 20 feet and post up without fear of a hand in his face. I would like him to get tougher, but there is not one team that would not think about trading their best player for him other than the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Cavaliers. I still say the Rockets, if healthy, can win the Western Conference.
7. Dwyane Wade
He is proving how good a player he is when in top shape. I have said consistently over the last few years that he has a bad body and will always have injuries. But with a new body and demeanor, Wade is showing why he is one of the best players we have ever seen. What he is doing with Miami is equivalent to what Chris Paul is doing in New Orleans.
6. Kevin Garnett
I would love to be a psychologist and sit in a room with KG for a day. He goes from calm to incredibly psychotic within minutes. The one thing I enjoy about KG is that he has always been like this on the floor. There is no fake in him when it comes to exuberance on the court. The Celtics have molded themselves around him and that’s why a small blip of losing games did not affect them for long.
5. Tim Duncan
Drops a spot and mainly because of one little blemish that seems to be always correctable and that is the Spurs’ slow start against teams above .500. The Spurs are 11-11 against top teams. Duncan is ageless. Just when you think he is losing a step, he makes you look bad for speaking too soon. I think he is the most professional player on and off the floor in the NBA. And its best leader.
4. Dwight Howard
Moves up four spots because he has become the second coming of Shaq. The Magic is his team and he has elevated everybody’s games – especially first-time All-Star Jameer Nelson. That appealing smile is hiding a nastiness that opposing players fear and Howard seems to get a kick out it. Just remeber one early season incident where he elbowed Suns rookie Robin Lopez and received a technical foul. As they retreated, he mockingly patted Lopez on the rear, thus sending a message… It’s not personal, but I will hurt you next time you get in my way.
3. Chris Paul
If there was a wonder how valuable Paul is, just witness the Hornets’ second half meltdown against the Blazers and the beat-down from the Chicago Bulls in the first two games of Paul’s groin injury. I have not seen a team fall to such levels since Magic Johnson missed games. Paul has re-defined the two-man game and how to guard against it. He is the toughest player in the game pound for pound.
2. Kobe Bryant
His drive to succeed is beyond reason. He is the best late-game assassin offensively I have seen since Jordan and Bird. I really have enjoyed his willingness to allow his talented teammates to excel, but with Bynum down are we ready to see the old Kobe surface again? The 61 points and 0 rebounds against the Knicks were probably a sign of things to come. I feel sorry for all the players who have to guard Kobe from here on out, but will it be for the good of the Lakers?
1. LeBron James
He continues to hold on to the No. 1 spot because he is doing the best job of carrying a team since HakeemOlajuwon carried the Rockets to back-to-back championships. Also, his follow up to Kobe scoring 61 against the Knicks was downright ridiculous. Scoring 50-plus is one thing, but getting a (quasi) triple-double to boot was the icing on the cake that has kept LB on top. I watched that game and he could have easily gotten 60 if he wanted to.
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.
Boston is the favorite until someone beats them and the Lakers are the favorite in the West, especially with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, but I don’t want to focus on teams this early. I am targeting players and where they rank coming into this season.
Here are my Top 25 players in the league and my reasons for ranking them.
25. Shawn Marion
The most versatile forward in the game. Shawn gives a team a little of everything and a lot of solid defense. Underappreciated for what he brings, he will command a ton of attention at the trade deadline if the Heat can’t reach a contract agreement with him.
24. Manu Ginobli
The guy is a winner and a competitor. Definitely the best foreign player in the league when it comes to effectiveness in clutch situations. Led the Spurs in scoring and carried them in crunch time. The most disliked player in the league on the road due to his playing style… But every team would love to have him.
23. Tracy McGrady
The key for Tracy is to stay healthy. I wonder how committed he is in the weight room. Body has not changed much during his career, which is a negative. Definitely one the best scorers in the league, but on-the-ball defense will be huge for Houston this year. He needs to back off on deferring to the three-point shot. I always felt he is a mid-range shooter and that’s what the Rockets need him to be.
22. Chauncey Billups
He has great leadership abilities, but I think he has to step it up even more. He seemed to get along with ex coach Flip Saunders, but allowed his teammates to step out of line too often last year. I think at times he’s a little too unselfish because he is the best scorer on the team with his ability to get a jump shot or drive to the basket at will. I expect more this year to validate being 21 on my list.
21. Caron Butler
Gilbert Arenas will have to take a back seat to Butler when he gets healthy. He has become the heart and soul of the Wizards. He has an ability to create shots when none seem available and his jumpshot has improved every season. A true warrior who has battled injuries the last few years.
20. Elton Brand
When healthy, he’s one the best power forwards in the game. The Sixers now have one of the best post players and screeners in the game. Brand has a lot to prove this year and eyes will be on him all season long, but he will prevail with consistent offense and sneaky shot blocking ability.
19. Baron Davis
I will not believe Davis leaving Golden State was on his own accord. The Warriors are going to suffer without Davis and the Clippers will be rewarded. He has the most underrated on-the-ball hands in the league defensively. And we all know of his ability to change the opponent’s defense when he has the ball on the perimeter or the post.
18. Shaquille O’Neal
Quite honestly, in my opinion he is still the most dominating presence in the game today. He changes the game when he is on the floor and that makes him still one of the best players in basketball. People tend to talk about his commitment to staying in shape, but look at it this way… How many big men like Shaq have lasted this long? Zero. Give him credit for maintaining what he has with that massive body. Stanley Roberts, Benoit Benjamin, Oliver Miller… No, not great players like Shaq, but they could not stay in shape because of the bodies they had. He will produce some big numbers at times this year with the Suns slowed offense.
17. Carmelo Anthony
A combination of finesse and power. A tremendous offensive rebounder and finisher around the basket. Anthony would be higher if he developed better leadership abilities and trusted his teammates more often on the court. He will definitely wind up in the top twenty in scoring when his career is done, but championships will elude him if he does not continue to improve his overall package.
16. Tony Parker
Please find me someone who can stop him from getting to the basket? You will not find that person. Speed and underrated strength allows Parker to get in the paint and complete shots. Parker is a true winner and is the most dangerous penetrator in league history. His jump shot in the two-man game with Duncan has made him a true force.
15. Paul Pierce
His nickname is The Truth. Well, true it is. He has an uncanny ability to score on anyone off the dribble or in the post. He loves contact and is definitely one of the best go-to clutch players in the league. His leadership qualities really came to light during the championship run. That has elevated Pierce among the greats in Celtic history.
14. Allen Iverson
The toughest player pound for pound in the history of the league. A medical marvel that never runs out of energy. I often wondered if Iverson would last five years in the league, but I understand now why he has endured. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he decided to focus on basketball and now we understand the ignorance to pain when it comes to him. He is downright relentless and a joy to watch.
13. Steve Nash
Every time I see Steve Nash I ask God why couldn’t I have been born 10 years later. Nash is the most unselfish player in the league. He honestly dislikes taking a bunch of shots. His enjoyment comes in the form of an Amare Stoudemire or Shaq dunk or a Raja Bell three-pointer than actually scoring 20 points a night. That’s why he won back to back MVPs and that is why he is still one of the best players in the league. Nash will be counted on to use that stroke more this year because he will play off the ball more than usual. That’s a great move because he is the best shooter in the league.
12. Dirk Nowitzki
He is the best shooting big man in the league, but needs to improve individual leadership on a team in need of it. He also has to stop deferring to the three-pointer and become more assertive around the basket, which he can do with ease. (I apologize to Dirk and all Maverick fans for the oversight. He clearly belongs on the Top 25).
11. Deron Williams
Williams will do something unheard of in Utah if he continues to improve every year. Yes, I will say it… Make people stop thinking about John Stockton. The Jazz are right back at the level Stockton left when it comes to a point guard that leads and produces victories on a consistent basis. Williams is definitely the strongest point guard in the league and equally as smart when it comes to making decisions in a Jerry Sloan offensive system.
10. Dwyane Wade
Would be higher if he could just stay healthy. I mentioned a few years ago that he would not last long in the league if he continued to hit the floor 50 times a game. Wade was fantastic this summer in the Olympics and showed me that he could possibly lead the league in steals. He has really gotten himself into great shape so I expect him to get back on track to becoming the great player we all expected him to be when he led Miami to a title.
9. Chris Bosh
Reminds me of Bill Cartwright, but athletic. I would be terrified to guard him because his body seems to be going in twenty different directions when he attacks, but it works and gets him to the free-throw line consistently. Now with Jermaine O’Neal beside him, he should take off even more. He really needs to develop a go-to move inside and stop trying to incorporate a thousand moves, which I think gets him in trouble at times.
8. Dwight Howard
Can be as good as he wants to. He has the body to maneuver anywhere he wants to on the court and that is huge at this level. His rebounding ability and presence on the court alone warrant Howard this spot. Must improve free-throw shooting if he plans on moving up any further.
7. Amare Stoudemire
The most feared power forward in the game because of the embarrassment factor. He is what I call “dirt strong” and it’s deceiving because of his slender build. His shooting stroke is picture perfect and consistent. TerryPorter’s new offensive system will allow Amare to get more post-up opportunities, thus improving his trips to the charity stripe, where he hovered around 80 percent all year. He should average 25-plus points again this year and improve defensively.
6. Yao Ming
Injuries cost Yao last year, but before he left for the season he was playing like the best center in the league statistically and one must wonder if Houston would have broken the Lakers’ 33-game winning streak if he did not go down at the beginning of it. He is difficult to guard when in top shape. I expect him to have a great year leading the Rockets deep in the playoffs. Ron Artest will keep him from picking up cheap fouls with his great one-on-one defense.
5. Kevin Garnett
Kevin is the here because he finally got a chance to combine his talents and leadership with All-Stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. He is the most persistent player I have ever seen. I have never seen Garnett take a night off emotionally. If you have watched Garnett over his career, he is in constant dialogue with himself for 48 minutes and 82 games. That, my friends, is special in itself and now he is a champion.
4. Tim Duncan
This guy is pure professionalism. I would love my son to live with him for a summer. His demeanor and unselfishness with his teammates is pure gold. He could average huge numbers every year, but understands winning championships is more important. No way does Ginobili lead the team in scoring without Duncan allowing him to. Give credit to David Robinson for instilling that in Duncan.
3. Chris Paul
He is here because I personally think he is the best leader right now in the NBA. He has admitted studying Steve Nash and it is obvious when you watch his interaction with his teammates. Paul is a clone of Isiah Thomas and he showed it last year. The best pick-and-roll guard in the league.
2. Kobe Bryant
The closest in talent to Michael Jordan and in a lot of ways better than MJ. Dislike him if you want, but he is the perfect example of preparation when it comes to basketball. He is the smartest player in the league and makes the game look easy.
1. LeBron James
The best physical tools in the history of the game. He has the smarts of Magic Johnson, the brute strength and athleticism of George McGinnis and the speed of Ricky Green rolled into one massive body. I have said this since he has been in the league… If he continues to improve his jump shot, he will become the best ever.
The NBA has probably enjoyed its finest season since Magic, Bird and a young Air Jordan were dominating the league and bringing new fans by the day. I have to admit that we are starting to see players littered around the league that finally get it. What is it? Well, it is the ability to play the game at a fundamental level the game deserves. We are seeing players that actually care about their field goal percentage, teammates, winning and respecting opponents with honest and kind comments.
This is what has been missing. This is what the old school players have been criticizing. Finally we have a product again that allows you to sit down and watch a game and appreciate the way the players compete and respect the game.
Just take a look at the MVP candidates. How can you choose between Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James? All of those guys play the right way. All of them make their teammates better and they compete with effort and passion every night.
If you have not gotten my drift, just look at how competitive the Western Conference has been all year and although the East was not up to par prove to me that Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington and Toronto are not worth watching and rooting for against the higher seeds.
This was the best season I have witnessed in a long time and I can’t wait for the postseason to get started. One warning: There will be no sweeps in the first round and we will have three lower seeds win.
Here are my picks for Round 1.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics have been the best team all year in regards to consistency. I have always said individual defensive accolades are overrated. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen just proved my theory, because they have become defensive stalwarts in the tight team defense of the Celtics. It will be hard for the Hawks to win this series just based on the rapid fire offense of the Big Three. Plus Kevin Garnett is on a mission. But Celtics beware if you think this is a cakewalk.
The Hawks match up with you quite nicely with the likes of Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith. I did not even mention one of the best clutch playoff performers in Mike Bibby. The Hawks have the firepower to win two games in this series and they will.
Projection: Celtics in six.
Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Pistons have been built for the playoffs for a long time and they always seem to use it to their advantage – except for last year against Cleveland. The key is Rasheed Wallace. The question is, will he or won’t he show up early in this series? If he does, the Sixers have no chance. But if he resorts to shooting 10 three-point shots a game… Well, this first-round series will venture to six games.
The Sixers are the most exciting team on the East Coast. They do it with speed and unselfishness and all the credit is pointed towards Andre Miller and head coach Maurice Cheeks. The play of youngsters Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young will be crucial for the Sixers in this series.
Projection: Pistons in five.
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
The Magic were one of the most exciting teams before the All-Star break and then became very boring right after. Howard can dominate and should in this series. Hedo Turkoglu has become the go-to star and has not disappointed.
The Raptors have not lived up to expectations and injuries played a part. Chris Bosh better bring it big time if the Raptors want to upset the third seed. Key player in series is TJ Ford. He is virtually unstoppable when on a roll.
Projection: Magic in five.
Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
This will be the most exciting series in the East. The Cavaliers defense better be air-tight, because if not they are in serious trouble. Also, LeBron will need some offensive help from at least two other Cavaliers – namely Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson.
The Wizards, if healthy, might be the most dangerous offensive team in the league. If you don’t believe me, then go ask Boston. Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are a load and they will exploit Cleveland in this series and finally beat LeBron.
Projection: Wizards in six.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
On paper, this series looks like it could be very competitive. But here is the problem: Denver doesn’t play good team defense. That is a serious problem when you face those 200 years of coaching experience on that Laker bench. The trio of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will score in bunches and then allow role players like Derek Fisher to flourish with wide open shots.
The Nuggets have a chance in this series if they keep defensive focus for 24 seconds and Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony realize that they will not beat the Lakers by themselves. The Nuggets have some serious fire power in JR Smith, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin if allowed to play. They can’t just stand and watch. I say the Nuggets will scare the Lakers and win two at home.
Projection: Lakers in six.
New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Hornets are America’s team. They play great team basketball and have supreme confidence. Chris Paul is downright sick. He is the single reason why this team is even on the map right now. I love David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler, but the credit all falls in the lap of Paul and head coach Byron Scott. The Hornets have one negative and it will cost them… That is experience. Players that have never been to the playoffs think the experience talk is overrated, but the young Hornets will find out fast that it is not.
The Mavericks are still trying to find themselves since the Jason Kidd trade. They couldn’t have picked a better opponent to face. The experience of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Josh Howard will be too much. They will still need some stellar defense and rebounding from Erick Dampier, but I think they will find a way to upset the Hornets and move on to the second round. I personally will be rooting for the Hornets to prove me wrong.
Projection: Mavericks in six.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Here we go again! The Spurs are still the champion and the Suns understand that champions never beat themselves. The Spurs have fought hard through another long season and are now trying to conjure up some energy to make another I-told-you-so run to the championship. The problem the Spurs face is that historically they have never won back-to-back. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will give the Suns fits as usual, but would that be enough to get it done?
The Suns are hungry, mad and determined to finally climb the Spur Mountain. They will get it done if Amare Stoudemire and Shaq stay out of foul trouble early and attack Duncan consistently to wear him down. Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw will have to score close to double figures off the bench thus negating Ginobili’s production. Steve Nash will have a great series and I think he will be the difference in the Suns finally eliminating the Spurs.
Projection: Suns in six.
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Simple fact the Jazz don’t lose at home, so the Rockets better take care of home business against a terrible road team with a great overall record. The Rockets have bulletin-board material because they saw the Jazz virtually give up home court advantage to play them and avoid the Spurs and Suns. Tracy McGrady has to be lights out the entire series and the Rockets must dominate the offensive glass for second opportunities. Luis Scola will be the key to the series defending Carlos Boozer.
The Jazz should have mailed in their final game with the Spurs. They wanted the Rockets and they got them. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are the keys and do it extremely well every night. The Jazz will steal one game in Houston and win all three at home.
This year’s MVP winner will be the most scrutinized of any year we have seen.
Steve Nash coming from out of nowhere to win back-to-back was definitely an eye opener two years ago, but with so many teams and players having great seasons the lucky winner this year will be treated like an elected official because he will not have over 51 percent in favor of his nomination.
Why?
This season is sick with great stories involving players and teams. Everyone has their own formula in deciding who the front runner with one month to go is. So I came up with my own formula to come to my pick as MVP.
Once I came up with this formula I voted without looking at statistics the first time to see who would come out on top. The second time I looked at the stats and I still came up with the same player.
I am sure readers will beat up my method and abuse my choice if their favorite player did not get the nod, but I will tell you just like the NCAA told Arizona State when they got omitted from the 64 team field… This is my formula and you have to live with my pick – well at least in this article.
I think we all can agree that five players stick out brightly when it comes to the finalists. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady are the strongest candidates.
McGrady beat out Amare Stoudemire, Baron Davis, Tim Duncan and Deron Williams for the fifth player just based on what the Rockets have done in regards to this 22-game winning streak.
I took 11 categories and graded each player with a rating of 1 to 10 and then added the total. Then I saw who the winner was.
That seems so simple, right?
Well, without these so-called calculations… If someone asked me who I thought was the best NBA player on the planet? Without hesitation I would declare Kobe Bryant and then follow it up with a statement like, “LeBron James will past him very soon like a locomotive once his defense continues to improve.”
I would also mention that Amare Stoudemire might give both of them a run for their money if he continues the torrid pace he is on.
That would be my basic armchair fan response, but I should get credit for researching further and not voting with my heart.
Although not proven by numbers, categories like crunch time, showmanship and wow factor are a major part of the greatness of a player.
Example… Even though LeBron has scored more points than anyone in the league in the fourth quarter, which player would you feel comfortable with taking the last shot?
Which player gives you the impression that his attitude an effort is like Groundhog Day in that every time you watch him you notice it.
These are the things I think about when I pick my MVP and now you have the chance to dispute my choice or agree wholeheartedly that Chris Paul should win the MVP if the season ended today.
Paul (100 points) narrowly beat out Kobe (99) and Lebron (97) in my voting. And as I stated earlier, I voted twice without looking at stats and then taking them into consideration. He edged Kobe in the winning record category for the simple fact the Hornets have blown out the defending champion Spurs twice this season. That was the difference.
LeBron has to improve his individual defense if he wants to jump over Kobe and Paul in the next few years. He also suffered with the subpar record the Cavaliers have at the moment. Yes, they have had injuries. But didn’t McGrady lose Yao Ming and they still have kept winning with virtually no other stars in the more difficult Western Conference.
Bottom line… Chris Paul is such a joy to watch and observe. I really love the way Paul leads his team. He is constantly communicating with teammates and coaches and will confront them without hesitation. I have not seen a little man do that since Isiah Thomas led the Pistons to back-to-back championships. The reason Paul can command this audience is because those players realize he not only leads by example, but he makes them better. I can recall only a handful of players that had this ability. They are Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Steve Nash.
They all have one thing in common. They have MVP awards. Chris Paul should receive his this season.
Yeah, Chris Paul is great. But give Byron Scott a lot of credit.
The New Orleans Hornets are the gypsies of the National Basketball Association. They have relocated twice in the last few years and have adjusted splendidly. I felt the Hornets would be a surprising team, but no one thought that they would be fighting for the best record in the Western Conference halfway through the season.
I know that Chris Paul has been getting the bulk of the attention for this huge turnaround, but before I start with Paul, I want to look at the marvelous job Byron Scott has done in improving this team with everything they have had to deal with over the last few years.
Scott, who is a disciple of Pat Riley, Magic Johnson, Larry Brown and RickAdelman, has taken a little from each and created a consistency at the coaching position that has gone unrecognized for a number of years.
Remember this is the same coach who took an overachieving New Jersey Net team to the NBA Finals twice and was promptly fired because rumor had it he was not paying attention to detail. Well, the Nets have not sniffed the Finals since and are presently sitting in the eighth position of the Eastern Conference 15 ½ games behind the Boston Celtics.
George Shinn, who has been much maligned as an NBA owner, snapped Scott up in a hurry and he has brought stability and professionalism to a franchise that was becoming the laughingstock of the league a few years ago.
Scott has been able to do it because Shinn has allowed him to control his environment and not mettle. Scott has encouraged and made some decisions that some initially frowned upon or wondered why, but as we are seeing the Hornets are making a rise that has skeptics unsettled and looking for reasons.
The first thing Scott did was go with his instincts and beliefs on whom he would feel comfortable sitting next to him. Rarely in the NBA nowadays do we see more than one ex-player sitting next to a head coach? Byron Scott has three in Kenny Gattison, Darrell Walker and Paul Pressey. What is also significant is that Scott was not intimidated about hiring coaches that did not have to be taught about the nuances of the league. These individuals played and have a desire to become head coaches in the future. This means if Shinn wanted to make a change he would not have to look far. Riley, Brown and Adelman were also coaches who were not afraid of this situation and now you see through the power of this association.
Most coaches in this league would never put a potential successor next to them and definitely not three, but Scott understands that winning consistently will keep his job anyway… So why not go all? It has paid dividends for him.
It definitely helps to have a Chris Paul, but again here is the beauty of Scott remembering the greatness of Magic Johnson. He has allowed Paul to be great because, believe me, there are some coaches in this league that would not allow Paul to control this team as he does and the numbers we are seeing might not be part of his portfolio.
Paul runs every fabric of this team. I saw him a few weeks ago dress down three veterans in the span of two minutes and they gave him eye-to-eye contact and followed instructions. Why? Because they see a player that is allowing them to have career years and brings it every night with superstar abilities - which has him pushing two- time MVP Steve Nash for best point guard in the league.
That might be no surprise. Paul has purposely studied Nash on film and considers him the model in how he should play the game.
Although Scott has the unbelievable Paul, he should be hailed for convincing Peja Stojakovic to bolt Sacramento. Also, David West has developed into one of the best low-post threats in the league.
But the biggest coup and the main reason this team has elevated itself into the super team category so far this season is the theft of Tyson Chandler from the Chicago Bulls. I have personally loved the abilities and athleticism of Chandler ever since he came in the league. It was easy to get down on him because he seemed to not care at times and he could not stay healthy, but when you think about it we were talking about a high school kid. If you discount his first three years in the league, which should be for growth, Chandler has missed only 14 games and has averaged close to 11 rebounds a game in the last four years. Chandler has now become a confident double-double machine that seems to get more dominant with every game.
The big challenge for the Hornets is to hope that these four key players will continue to flourish and hopefully find a way to get role players Bobby Jackson, MorrisPeterson and Jannero Pargo to start shooting better than 39 percent as a trio.
It’s important because the Hornets rely on field goals and limiting the opposition’s possessions with their great defensive rebounding to keep the game close so Paul can dominate crunch time, which he has done better than any player in the league the first half of this season.
If the Hornets start to struggle in those areas, they better find a way to get to the free throw line more often because they are dead last with only 19 attempts a game.
All that said, this is one of the most exciting teams with Chris Paul and I believe with good health that they will grab a top five seed and be a tremendous problem come playoff time!
Training camps for the 2009-10 NBA season are about to begin. As we enter a new season, I would like to get the ball rolling with my Top 25 player prediction for this year. I computed last season’s accomplishments along with my thoughts on how they will perform this time. I already know a list like this one will have its disputes, but I assume that’s why we do lists. I must admit that LeBron and Kobe are apples and oranges, but in my opinion one of them is ahead by a millimeter. We have a couple of new players in the ranking and another player that fell out (Manu Ginobili). I did not rank Yao Ming because we don’t know if he will be playing this season, so with him I omitted a player that would be in the Top 10.
A new NBA season is upon us and we have no idea who will win the championship. There’s a reason why… We have an abundance of teams that are more than qualified – like the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns in the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference might not have as many powerhouses as the West, but there still are plenty of qualified teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta all proved last year they can be tough opposition come playoff time to try to dethrone Boston.
The NBA has probably enjoyed its finest season since Magic, Bird and a young Air Jordan were dominating the league and bringing new fans by the day. I have to admit that we are starting to see players littered around the league that finally get it. What is it? Well, it is the ability to play the game at a fundamental level the game deserves. We are seeing players that actually care about their field goal percentage, teammates, winning and respecting opponents with honest and kind comments.
This year’s MVP winner will be the most scrutinized of any year we have seen.
Yeah, Chris Paul is great. But give Byron Scott a lot of credit.