And the Rookie of the Year is… Who cares?
If you want to know who leads this season’s Rookie of the Year race, and who’s likely to stay ahead, the short answer is Sacramento’s Tyreke Evans.
If you want to know the significance, that’s another matter entirely and may not reveal itself for years.
Of course, Blake Griffin, who’s probably still the best bet to head this class up, hasn’t even taken off his warmups.
And, of the players we’ve seen, who’s to say the most impressive this season will have the most impact in the years to come?
Who’s to say one of them won’t be Hasheem Thabeet, the No. 2 pick by Memphis and now a semi-embarrassment to the Grizzlies, who took him ahead of Evans, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings?
Take a look at the last 10 All-Rookie teams. Among the players who weren’t first team are:
Danny Granger, beaten out by Charlie Villanueva.
Carlos Boozer, beaten out by Drew Gooden.
Andrew Bynum, who didn’t get a single vote while Nenad Krstic made the second team.
Joakim Noah, beaten out for second team by Jamario Moon.
Chris Kaman, beaten out for second team by Udonis Haslem.
Mike Conley, beaten out for second team by teammate Juan Carlos Navarro.
Leandro Barbosa, beaten out for second team by TJ Ford.
So it’s going to take longer than their rookie year to see who’s whom.
Significant or not, the rookie race has become a feature attraction on the big web sites that cover the NBA – which are almost the one media outlets covering the league.
In an age where great NBA writers like Sam Smith are allowed to take buyouts and wind up taking their columns to Bulls.com, we’re down to six NBA writers working for newspapers: Peter Vecsey of the New York Post, Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News, Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News, Michael Lee of the Washington Post, Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe, and me at the Los Angeles Times.
With unlimited space, big sites like ESPN.com and Yahoo! have a different mission: capturing “eyeballs”– market share – in an era in which there’s still something called a “first-mover advantage,” even if ESPN moved first years ago, surging to the fore.
As opposed to the specialized sites like HoopsHype, RealGM, DraftExpress or 82games, the big sites are like a combination of reportage, however feverish, as on “SportsCenter,” and discussion, however contrived, on “ESPN2.”
To fill up the unlimited space, stay topical enough to lure readers, there’s ceasless chatter about things that won’t be decided for years.
Who’s better, Kobe or LeBron?
Hey, we still don’t know how Kobe Bryant measure up to Michael Jordan, and won’t until Kobe’s done and we count up the titles.
Welcome to the Internet, the unending barrom argument.
Rookies have a prime position as a peculiar and interesting class and get a major promotional boost from the league, which runs rookie stats.
Of course, it’s not unusual for rookies to look like duds, like Memphis’ Hasheem Thabeet, now averaging 2.8 points and 3.2 rebounds, and to go on from there.
Reading ESPN’s David Thorpe for the first 10 weeks of Thabeet’s career it’s amazing he still has a career:
Nov. 26 – “It’s hard to find something the Grizzlies can be happy about here. Thabeet has done so little for them on the court. But I watched him closely the other night and found something I’m sure they like: his attitude. And that’s no small thing. Getting Thabeet’s motor to run hot is an enormous challenge.”
Well, that’s something, at least, he has a motor!
Dec. 9 – “Thabeet can improve in every area because he seems coachable. However, he is missing one ingredient that has me concerned about his upside: a motor that runs hot. Few players who lack what I call a ‘heartbeat’ develop that drive to dominate later in their careers.”
Oh, no, his heart stopped! That can’t be good, but, wait!
Dec. 16 – “After looking D-League-bound to start the season, Thabeet has played his way into the surging Grizzlies’ rotation. In other words, he’s ahead of schedule. He’s fourth in blocks per 48 minutes among all NBA players, and his defensive- rebound rate ranks second to DeJuan Blair among all rookies.”
His heart has started beating again?
With apologies to Thorpe for cherry-picking his stuff, the problem isn’t his analysis – it’s the gig which calls on him to make an informed judgment weekly.
If Thorpe did it the way NBA people do, or at least smart NBA people, he’d qualify everything with “It’s really early,” defer judgments – and it would read like crap.
As for the professionals themselves, there’s always a certain percentage of GMs and scouts trying to cover their rear ends, whose mantra is “We want someone who’s ready to contribute now.”
Of course, the test for the 2009 draft isn’t the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award, but next decades’s All-Star teams.
If you take a close look, as Thorpe has noted in recent reports, you’ll see him 18 in the league in rebounds per 48 minute, ahead of players like Al Horford, Gerald Wallace and Marc Gasol.
You’ll also see him No. 1 in blocks per 48 minutes at 5.5, ahead of everybody.
(Not that per-minute production is all the “Moneyball” stat guys think it is. If he only averages 12 minutes, that’s the most important stat. Trust me on this, mathematicians, if he was better, he’d play more.)
What the numbers do show is that Thabeet is keeping up with the play going on around him. He’s not way behind as he was in his first two seasons at UConn, and last summer in Las Vegas.
If you haven’t heard, he’s 7-3 and athletic, too. Even if he’s never much on offense, taking 10 rebounds and blocking two shots a game would make him someone a fifth grader could design a defense around.
Not that Thabeet will be any factor in the rookie race. As it stands today, here’s how I see it:
Tyreke Evans – Looks like a bigger Dwyane Wade. His numbers this month, 22-5-5, are better than the 20-5-6 LeBron put up as a rookie.
In other words, meet your Rookie of the Year!
Jonny Flynn – He’s so good, the Kings actually thought about taking him over Evans and starting to show it with Kevin Love back and less and less triangle offense, which minimizes what he does.
Brandon Jennings – Of course, he isn’t as good as he was in that incredible 55-point game but he’s very good. Passing on him was an incredible screwup for the Knicks, who needed a point guard and weren’t that high on Jordan Hill, whom they took instead.
Stephen Curry – Slight as he was, he looked like he’d be very good, if not great, and still does.
Blake Griffin – That name sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
With his debut now pushed back to mid-January, it’s hard for people on the rookie beat to keep insisting he’s the best without any data to back them up, as in Thorpe’s Dec. 9 update:
“Based on what I saw from Griffin in college and summer league, I’m guessing he would be in the top four in terms of upside if he were healthy.”
Based on what I saw in college and preseason, if they did this draft over, Griffin would still go No. 1.
As for the rookie race, I’d expect him to average 12-17 points this season, get 8-10 rebounds, shoot 50 percent or so… and that won’t get it.
So, forget about the T Mobile Trophy, Blake. Happily in the NBA, life goes on with or without it.
RickJames Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 10:11 am
Out of all the rookies this season, 5 yrs from today, who do you think will be the best player for their position?
Gerard Himself Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 10:21 am
Bam! Hit the nail right on the head; I really enjoyed reading this.
MC_cHampsta Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 11:53 am
Tyreke Evans – Looks like a bigger Dwyane Wade. His numbers this month, 22-5-5, are better than the 20-5-6 LeBron put up as a rookie.
Really? Two more points and one less assist? When his numbers drop off in January as Kevin Martin comes back (who was leading the league in scoring through those first few games before his wrist injury, but nobody remembers that) people will start questioning Tyreke and saying he isn’t playing like a Rookie of the Year candidate. It makes me sick.
dlee Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 12:35 pm
really bad article. it’s premise walks all over itself. instead, it should have illuminated what i THINK was it’s point about not judging rookies too early based on initial contributions. yet they contradict that point as well by immediately labeling Jordan Hill a bust (*not that i disagree). anyway, i think it’d be more interesting to cover the high profile 2nd rounders that look to be possible future steals..AKA..
1) Buddinger
2) Blair
3) Thornton
4) Young
5) Summers
Larry Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 1:12 pm
No where in the article does it say Hill is a bust, all it says is Knicks should have taken Jennings instead.
AJ Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 1:47 pm
There may only be 6 basketball beat writers for newspapers, but there are only 5 people who rely on newspapers for their basketball news anymore.
chanman Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 1:55 pm
today’s nba game is so guard dependent that taking a big man who hasnt proved anything is questionable…except for dwight howard, hasheem going number 2 def. was a bust, i would’ve taken hansbrough over him!!! i think rookie of the year will come down to evans and jennings with evans beating him by a slight margin, team wins will be a factor in the end. when kev martin comes back hes gonna help the kings win and even if Tyreke is taken a lesser role hes still gonna be effective and maybe even better with out a big scoring load. knicks should def. have drafted jennings over hill, they had nothing to lose!! they are still terrible and how many minutes does hill play?? jennings or stephen curry is an upgrade over chris duhon any day of the week.
docgrizzfan Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 2:59 pm
Mr. Heisler shows his ignorance concerning Thabeet. He has only a few years basketball experience to begin with and has made strides to being a solid #2 center behind Marc Gasol. Sure he is not the best shooter, but he does alter shots, can dunk, and has improved immensely since the beginning of the season. Mr. Heisler probably has never watched a Grizzly’s game and just does what every pundit in the NBA seems to like doing - pound on the Grizz. Loser.
P.S. The Grizz may not make the playoffs this year, but watch out, we are a lot like Atlanta and Portland teams of a year or so ago.
docgrizzfan Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 3:24 pm
Addendum:
As a Memphis fan, Tyreke is VERY impressive and should win the ROY for this year.
petatracas Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 3:39 pm
Only one comment to your article, Mr Heisler, if Mike Conley ever gets to be half of the player Juan Carlos Navarro is and has been in his career, then it might make sense to make that comparission, meanwhile, Conley is still a promise to be a decent Pointguard, and La Bomba is a FIBA World Champion, Euroleague MVP, and the best guard in Europe in the last 10 years together with Manu Ginobili.
bye
Don Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 3:53 pm
All I know is if the Grizzlies take Jennings, Evans, Rubio, Lawson, Curry, Flynn and especially Evans there a definite playoff team this year. I don’t understand taking Thabeet with that second pick when they have someone as skilled Gasol at center. I think Thabeet does have a nice career though. That was just a terrible pick they should of traded down with someone who wanted rubio
Matt Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 4:00 pm
Are you serious? This article makes almost no sense, other than the fact that NBA analyst - especially on the internet - sometimes call “slow-starting rookies” career’s over a little too quickly.
However, to write an article about how being rookie of year “doesn’t matter” is completely ridiculous. Go to wikipedia and take a look at the rookies of years past - especially in the last 25 years - and tell me that those guys haven’t gone on to become some of the best basketball players to play the game. If Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, or Blake Griffin go on to win this award, it is an extremely significant milestone that indicates an athlete who has proven himself NBA ready from season 1.
This article feels more like a defensive plea for Hasheem Thabeet’s career.
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award
redavet Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 4:09 pm
yeaaaa wtf was donnie walsh thinking?
Earl Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 4:48 pm
I understand what dude was saying but there are some instances where he seem to contradict himself and also Navarro is better than Conley and he left because he did not like playing for the Grizz. I would have love to see him on another team. Thabeet may wind up being a good pick up in a few years. Defensively he could shut team down and i think he will wind up being no worst than Dalembert or slightly better than Hibbert. For a big man that is not bad considering how many legit big men are actually out there. Picking up a two guard and swingman for the most part are not that hard. Also OJ Mayo and Evans are too close in their overall skill and athletic set to me to pair. I know one is a shooter and other is a slasher but they both have average athleticism and size and both are combos
John Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 5:24 pm
Conley better than Navarro? Not even in dreams.
Matt Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 5:30 pm
Is this writer serious?? Who cares about Rookie of the Year??? Uhhh, these guys do…
Derrick Rose
Kevin Durant
Brandon Roy
Chris Paul
Okafor
Lebron
Amare
Pau
Brand
V.C.
Duncan
Iverson
Kidd
Webber
Shaq
David Robinson
Mitch Richmond
Mark Jackson
Ewing
Jordan
But no one is going to remember these guys anyway right?
Alex Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 6:51 pm
“Mike Conley, beaten out for second team by teammate Juan Carlos Navarro.”
What’s the problem with this one? Navarro is a lot better than Conley.
chuck Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 6:53 pm
“Who’s to say one of them won’t be Hasheem Thabeet, the No. 2 pick by Memphis and now a semi-embarrassment to the Grizzlies, who took him ahead of Evans, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings?”
I’m wondering how you apply to write for this site, you lack any substantial writing skills. Considering you just look at numbers and nothing else, you probably think that Al Thorton is a really good player (he isn’t). Hasheem Thabeet has a better PER than 2 of your favs.
h Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 7:55 pm
Haslem > Kaman
Ben Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 7:57 pm
“Welcome to the Internet, the unending barroom argument”– lol… the comments… they prove the point.
andy Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 8:41 pm
Liked the article but not too many good examples with the players who beat our others. Alot of the people who got beat out didnt get any minutes their rookie year and tj ford is still better than barbosa.
Brian Boitono Said,
December 29, 2009 @ 8:42 pm
im just calling to chime in with Conley not being better than JCN. also is Barbosa that much bette than TJ Ford seams kinda a wash. I get what your saying though otherwise
DEA Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 12:17 am
Hasheem Thabeet has done NOTHING this season. Guys like Evans, Jennings and even Flynn are making an impact on their teams. Evans and Jennings have their teams performing much better than anyone expected. The recent W’s for Memphis have little to do with Thabeet, if at all.
don Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 2:56 am
i think a better topic would be… will Tyreke surpass Lebron?
the reason I say this is simple, when Lebron won the Rookie of the Year - he doesn’t deserve it!!!.. It should’ve been Carmelo Anthony, that year, Cavs still didn’t make it in the playoffs but Carmelo’s Nuggets did.
Lebron won the rookie of the year because the media was picturing him as the greatest player that stepped in after Jordan - so not!!!
Mike Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 5:02 am
I must say, I was unsure what the point of this article was. Do you think that the ROY award is pointless? Do you think that internet based reportage has resulted in a ton of fluff reportage? Do you think Blake Griffin deserves the ROY award even though you think the ROY award is stupid but you’re still mad? What’s our point? Life goes on?
I don’t really expect answers to my questions; I do want to know who copy-edits and formats these what-ever-you-want-to-call-thems (columns, blogs, essays, incoherent rants?). Unless this is supposed to be some long form poem that is to be read out loud, a paragraph would be nice. Normally the commenters aren’t supposed to be the ones providing the well-written part of the conversation, but in light of this junk, the tables have turned.
aldstar Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 6:21 am
dude come on if you are going to name the rookies of the year don’t forget stevie franchise and grant hill….
how about another share in the roy award? evans and jennings could share it but i think evans has surpassed jennings in terms of what he is delivering right now, but the season has not even passed half so there is a long way to go.
i really question if blake griffin is going to be a great player, or at least have a great rookie year
@MC_cHampsta Said, Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 6:41 am
LeBron also averaged a hella lot of TO’s that season since he insisted he was a point guard. now if we merged BJ’s TO’s and TE’s stats, we have the rookie LEBRON!
Yugo Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 8:03 am
Navarro said the reason he left Grizzs was cuz it was a team where nobody shared the ball, and it was like a quest who would score more points….. plus he was making much more playing in Europe. He did say he would have stayed if he was playing for a contender.
Yugo Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 8:19 am
Also i want to say since Rookie PGs this year are playing very well, and i hear people saying they should all get picked ahead of Rubio…. well i have been watching Rubio play since he was 15, and he wont score 55 points playing in NBA (he did have 51pts, 24rbs, 12 as, and 7 stl playing Euro under 16 finals) as Jenning did (and Bogut is shooting carrer low under 50%), but he will make everyone in Minesota much better, as he has been doing it in Juvetud and Barcelona. people see his as next Nash, but i think he more like Stockton, bigger and more athletichal version, but worst shooter…. Minesota will be a west contender within 3 years, if they keep their young core players adding Rubio he will averege around 15pts, 10ast, 5rbs, 3stl, being Brewer, Jefferson and Love guys who will benefit the most.
hondo17 Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 4:03 pm
This is the first article i have read by Mr. Heisler and will probably be the last. First, i seriously doubt that if ESPN or Yahoo! came a callin’ with some serious jack, Mr. Heisler would turn down the offer out of some kind of “journalistic morality”.
Second, arguably the best NBA beat writer isn’t even mentioned: Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland PD.
Third, ROY is what it is. Most knowledge people know that the reward won’t “make or brake” anyone’s career regardless of the sport. What’s wrong with trying to extrapolate future potential or compare which rookie is having the biggest impact THIS YEAR?
Fourth, please get off the soap box concerning the internet. Of course there is crap out there. All it means is that you have to be more discerning when going thru your content. Name me another medium, or product for that matter, that you don’t have to do this?
Porky Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 4:03 pm
Matt had the best comment…basically blowing the article out of its murky waters.
Falco Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 4:09 pm
i dont really get the point where mark heisler compares the players from the all rookie teams with those who were knocked out.
i mean, some ones are not that hard to understand.
conley beaten out by navarro?
who cares?
both not that great of a player…
John Said,
December 30, 2009 @ 5:52 pm
He is not exactly factual either. While Thabeet DOES trail Blair in rebounds per 48 minutes, they both trail Jon Brockman in that. And Thabeet plays roughly the same number of minutes per game.
Felipe Reyes Said,
January 1, 2010 @ 1:25 pm
Hey Juan Carlos Navarro did deserve to make it over Conley He was the better player and would still be in the NBA if he wanted to be
Harry Said,
January 1, 2010 @ 9:01 pm
When you are down on the internet writers and make reference to Peter Vecsey, what exactly is your point. Vecsey is a muckraker in the worst traditions of yellow journalism. He just makes stuff up. Crap gets printed, on paper or on the internet. Go figure.
I also wonder what is the point of the article. There are way too many subjects covered here. If the point is the title, so what? The ROY is given to the rookie who has the best year, or the most media hype. It certainly doesn’t predict NBA long term success. Some players don’t learn the game until their second or third year.
J Said,
January 2, 2010 @ 10:49 am
Every team before the Bucks should have been smart enough to draft him. It’s between Evans and Jennings for RoY.
Chris Tifre Said,
January 3, 2010 @ 7:49 pm
rookie of year is gonna be Tyreke Evans. Everyone was saying Brandon Jennings after his 55 point outburst but ever since jennings has be inconsistent and teams have adjusted to his game. Meanwhile Evans is doing it every game and has a very weak Sac team contending.
serious Said,
January 7, 2010 @ 10:17 pm
Come on, this sounds like a bitter writer using weak analysis.
And no need for throwing out “moneyball” insults. Any reasonable stats person would never stretch production per minute.
Rob Said,
January 14, 2010 @ 2:23 am
@chuck I think YOU lack any substantial reading skills.
You didn’t get it did you?